Six Reasons McCain will win the Election [Critique of polling]

October 26, 2008 | Lonestar67

[lonestar67]

This is my effort to consolidate an argument for McCain's victory this fall.

[HerrBlucher]

Anyone who thinks bambi is going to win this election is delusional or simply not paying attention. The dem vote for Kerry is NOT there for bambi, its that simple. Mac wins easily.

[SevenMinusOne]

Unless the McCain camp sets the record straight non-stop for the next 9 days regarding the facts that Obama will raise everyone's taxes....he will lose.

Setting the record straight that Obama slyly lies about not counting allowing the GWB tax-cuts to expire as a tax-hike.

[GerardKempf]

Great analysis. I still think that Colorado is going to be the deciding factor instead of Pennsylvania. I have already given FL, OH, NV, MO, NC and VA to John McCain and believe it’s going to come down to Colorado

[lonestar67]

I am also mystified by that obvious reality being lost in the current debate.

[fortheDeclaration]

Anyone who thinks bambi is going to win this election is delusional or simply not paying attention. The dem vote for Kerry is NOT there for bambi, its that simple. Mac wins easily.

Amen!

[fortheDeclaration]

Good job.

I think your arguments are sound.

[MovementConservative]

I'm still fighting hard in Oregon. Got the walk list for a precinct here in the Portland area targetting sketchy Republican(Those who haven't voted in all of the previous 4 elections). The only way we are going to win is to beat the Dems on GOTV(get out the vote). Tomorrow I will try and get to the phone bank for at least an hour.

Please, wherever you are go help with the GOTV at your local county headquarters. Take your kids. They are effective at helping with the phone bank.

The Dems are so confident of a 'blue wave' and the only way to stop it is to fight for every GOP incumbent senator. I think we can save Gordon Smith here in Oregon. We need to keep Sununu and Coleman as well. Please do what you can.

[lonestar67]

I know that is one argument I did not include which is anecdotal reference points.

I know a lot of democrats in my circle of friends— probably more dems than Republicans.

I know of no Republican friends voting for Obama. I know of several democrat associates voting for McCain. Not only that, some of them are pretty angry and vocal about it.

I did not have that feeling in 2000 or 2004. I just hoped that Bush was outregistering his opponent.

This is an important level of understanding and I just don’t see how Obama can win despite all the polling hysteria to the contrary.

[kAcknor]

The consequence of this is that Republicans have inflated the rolls of Democrats in many states.

I resemble that. Wife too. We voted in the Dem primary in Ohio and were subsequently automatically registered as Democrats. NFW are we ever going to vote like one. :)

I kind of like the idea, doing more harm from within that without. At least until the next Republican primary I can have a choice in.

[FloridaBattleGround]

Very well thought-out and inspirational piece... Thanks for the info and keep up the fight!!! Please ping me on any more of these analysis articles you write.

Say no to Socialism and yes to the Rise of the USA!!!!!!!!!

[FloridaBattleGround]

You are a great American!!! Please pull Oregon for us and I will give you Florida!!! Deal??? I would rather sweat to preserve freedom than have them come for my guns, money, and speech!!!

[STE=Q]

“This is my effort to consolidate an argument for McCain’s victory this fall.”

Excellent analysis!

STE=Q

[italianquaker]

His reasoning sounds better then most pollsters

[appeal2]

Another thing about Ohio. It went dim in 2006 because of a scandal dealing with the Republicans over taxing and a scandal dealing with public pension fund fraud. With Acorn targeting the state and the Joe the Plumber attack and invasion of privacy, I would be very surprised if Bambi is within 5 points of McCain. This is the state that the term, “Will it play in Peoria” was created for. Does anyone believe that Bambi will play in Peoria?

[fortheDeclaration]

Obama is simply trying to resurrect the old Democrat coalition of Blacks, Union, and Intellectual elites, a coalition that has constantly failed to win Presidential elections.

Many Democrats are not going to vote for him since they do not trust him.

Electing Presidents always comes down to simply 'who do you trust more'.

[Alter Kaker]

6. Pennsylvania: Candidate focus on Pennsylvania-- a state twice won by Democrats in the past two presidential elections-- suggests that the election is much weaker for Obama than being publicly stated. Should this reliable state fall to Republicans, it would be almost impossible to recover from electorally for Obama. Pennsylvannia has proven a microcosm of the 'you're a racist' gambit being used to intimidate voters.

That's a strange argument.

1. Obama can win without Pennsylvania. Winning New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado would do it. Polls have him leading in all of those. So would winning any one of North Carolina or Florida or Indiana or Missouri or Ohio.

2. Obama can certainly win without Pennsylvania, although it wouldn't be particularly easy. However I don't see how McCain can possibly win without Pennsylvania, at this point, absent a major development.

[lonestar67]

I don’t think Obama is going to win Nevada or Virginia. I also think he will not win NC, OH, MO, or IN. I think Obama may win New Mexico and Colorado.

Its difficult to evaluate because of how faulty the polls are as noted throughout most of my analysis. Keep in mind, we have good empirical evidence for my projections because of the spring primaries that Obama and Clinton fought over. We also have an unusually large pool of undecideds that is two to three times larger than previous elections.

I am not sure any of your assumptions are reliable. My point is that Pennsylvannia is probably one of the most vulnerable of all the states. The fact that a kerry state of this size is in question makes it difficult to assume that Obama is winning as polls suggest. The candidate behavior again confirms my thesis over yours.

[John Valentine]

Winning New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado would do it.

Obama might take Iowa and New Mexico, but that's it. Sorry, your scenario is bogus.

[Dream Warrior]

Wonderful analysis. I needed that, weekends are bad because talk radio is off the air and the talking heads spu their venom, makes no sense to FRers, but always wonder who's buying their tripe.

I think in the end we will win, Sarah is on fire and continues to draw huge crowds in small towns. Mc is showing some signs that he does want the job.

I always enjoyed Lincoln's response to U.S.Grant when Grant said “if we press this thing I believe we can win”.

Lincoln's response... “press this thing”.

All FRpers time to “press this thing”.