Posted on 10/22/2008 11:03:29 AM PDT by acsuc99
They’re projecting huge democrat turnout and weak gop turnout. I think in much of the early voting, you’re seeing some democrats voting against obama. I’m thinking that McCain wins this election nationally by 3 or 4 points, and flips states like PA, Minnesota, NH. Senator government is going to lose and the democrats will not make any substantial gains in the house or senate.
Our think our war cry needs to be, "Palin/McCain and pray for rain!"
In NH I’m sure acorn is going to bus people in from Vermont and Mass and Maine to help out obama. But, I don’t think it will be enough. I think people are starting to wake up. Momentum is completely on McCain’s side, and he’s going to win.
One AP poll had it McCain down 1. These polls are crap why do people persist in posting them? McCain/Palin will win, mainly due to Sarah.
FOX polling place is here in Boston, the home of hardcore Marxism .
Another reliable solid poll. It’s two points from what I can see. It’s Obama 49% and McCain 48%
Still great news from a good pollster.
Oops I meant McCain 47%
Internals:
Dem 43 (4-6 points too high)
Rep 37 (fine)
Ind 16 (about 10 points too low)
It also looks like Fox’s pollster (Opinion Dynamics — aren’t they a Democratic polling firm??) is including Democratic leaners as Independent rather than Democrat, which disguises and further understates the sheer size of the Democratic oversample. In the last two Presidential elections, the pure Independents split their vote right down the middle.
Again, here is my ever-handy chart, which must be read, learned, and loved by everyone here who worries about polls like this one.
2004 election:
Fox rates #2 “least accurate poll”
Fox News Poll. Fox News made predictions in 6 states, all in Battleground States. The FNP made 3 calls right, and 3 wrong, and was off by an average of 8.33 points. None of their picks was the closest in a state, and one of their final polls was off by more than 10 points.
Dem 45%
GOP 39%
Ind 16%
No way will RATS out poll the GOP by 6 points. Additionally, the poll has a slight more undecideds for GOP. I also don't buy the RATS pulling 88%for Obama; that is historically high.
Watching Ruport and his SON ( WSJ OBAMA TROLL) running scared of the Dems and OBama and peddling there PUSH POLLS has been a real eye opener !
AP has them even now!
We should poll the poller’s and ask which poll they most believe in.
VOA Daily Tracking has O+3
The pollsters wouldn't be oversampling Democrats, would they? :::smirk:::
Good God, Rassmussen wants $29.99 a month for his crap?
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