Posted on 10/21/2008 12:10:06 PM PDT by TonyInOhio
When the early results show McCain wins Pennsylvania, keeps Florida, and wins N. Carolina BIG, watch the air come out of the media cheerleaders baloons.
Wisconsin was so close in the last two elections that it's very, very likely that vote fraud in Milwaukee was the only thing that kept the state blue.
Hold OH & FL.
Take away PA.
Game. Set. Match.
I lived in Ohio for a long time until recently. I have little doubt McCain will win Ohio. He is a better fit for people in Ohio than Bush ever was. I personally prefer Bush to McCain but can see why Ohio would like him. more.
Ob ama lost badly to Hillary in Ohio and there were a lot of Republican cross overs. This makes it very hard for him to win there without massive fraud— which is the secret to any possible success Obama would have.
I still think the unique dynamics of Penn and OH make them good states for McCain to win in two weeks.
The key counties in Ohio are the exurbs surrounding Cincinnati: Butler, Clermont and Warren.
I’m very much on the ground in these areas and can state unequivocally that the enthusiasm in Clermont and Butler is below 2004 while Warren is tracking about the same. [The number of volunteers for Clermont and Hamilton counties are definitely down . . . There is no enthusiasm for McCain . . . HOWEVER, there is enthusiasm for Palin. This coupled with a definite anti-Obama sentiment will help drive voters to the polls — it will be very close!]
Bush 04 had a much better ground game. The campaign offices were always jam-packed. You wanted to be there. I even stopped in some neighboring counties' BC04 offices if I finished my work day nearby.
McCain's campaign offices in Hamilton County (I don't have the same job as I did in 04, so I don't get to the surrounding counties as much) have been fairly underwhelming.
I was part of a massive voter reg plan in 04, but I saw no evidence of anyone trying one here this year. Not one call. Ever.
My job takes me further on the road now than it did in 04. It does seem that the one aspect in which McCain is better than Bush is yard-sign distribution. I see McCain-Palin signs at levels I would never expect to see in a lot of aging suburbs of the Three C's.
At the height of the bailout fiasco, I was driving across three counties in NEO and hit the roof at the completely idiotic decisions to flood rural heay-GOP counties with signs when they were rare as hen's teeth in Hamilton County. Thankfully, that's been fixed.
McCain's and the RNC's presence on TV and direct mail does seem underwhelming compared to 04 and Obama is absolutely crushing him in radio ads.
On the plus side, the liberal MoveOn MooreOns are not flooding the TV like they did in 04.
Obama's signs are mostly in white-liberal bastions or in African-American neighborhoods. In the white working-class neighborhoods in Cincinnati, they are almost nonexistent.
Disagree.
MN has an increasingly strong Christian, GOP influence while MI is just completely FUBAR.
I do think the “pullout” from MI was simply a tactic, however.
The strategy is to hold the ad blitz until we see the whites of their eyes. Don’t worry.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell stated in the democratic primary that Obama wouldn’t win PA.
Pennsylvania overwhelmingly voted for Hillary over Obama. This was not too long after all the rev. Wright stuff too. That’s why I wish the good old rev. Wright would make another appearance before the election.
A lot of voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio are just like voters in West VA and KY. They’re not going to vote for Obama.
“Wisconsin was so close in the last two elections that it’s very, very likely that vote fraud in Milwaukee was the only thing that kept the state blue.”
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Actually, it was voter fraud in Madison (the location of the University of Wisconsin).
...and in Virginia and North Carolina as well. Probably Wisconsin too.
I want to keep VA, but if we can have PA or VA and not both, I’ll take PA. More EVs.
Not much on the radar, but Todd Palin also has been making appearances in the BG states.
Every little bit helps.
The RNC is back on the air in my part of Ohio, as of today. I keep a local talk radio station on all day, and have yeat to hear an Obama ad, but have heard several excellent McCain adds, emphasizing the dangers of Obama with a liberal Congress.
I'm in NW Ohio, a very "safe" part of the state for a Republican.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but most of the vote fraud stories had to do with fictional voters registered to vacant or non-existent addreses in Milwaukee, and IIRC the precincts that had more votes than registered voters were in Milwaukee.
The Rats are trying very hard to lock in the early voters.
They know very well that as time goes on, more and more people will experience a vote-for-Obama-altering gut-check.
That’s one of the problems with early voting. It’s easy to manipulate people outside the “real” Election Day. Sort of like Monopoly money.
Apparently Sen. McCain does, too. :-)
MN has an increasingly strong Christian, GOP influence while MI is just completely FUBAR. I do think the “pullout” from MI was simply a tactic, however.
The GOP convention probably had an impact. I'm basing my thoughts on MI vs. MN strictly on previous Presidential baselines, plus my thought that Detroit's major problems may come into play. In 2004 MN and MI were both 51-48 Kerry victories. In 2000 Bush lost MI by three points again, but MN by only two. So you can probably make a stronger argument than I can, especially with McCain still buying ads in MN and, at least for now, not actively advertising or campaigning in MI.
A lot of people think MI was a head fake. I lean that way, but don't really know what to think.
The MSM will declare OH, PA, VA, NC, and FL "too close to call" until after Midnight. Bank on it.
FYI
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