Posted on 10/16/2008 11:38:02 PM PDT by Kevmo
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/?initialBlogId=jd_1
Here's the forum where this article is being discussed at Intrade: https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2796.page
Here’s the announcement by John Delaney:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/?initialBlogId=jd_1
Here’s the forum where this article is being discussed at Intrade: https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2796.page
Who cares? If people are doing something stupid and offering you more value on one or the other, take it.
Okay,I just checked Intrade's site "2008 Presidential Election Winner", and they have Obama up 85-15 over McCain.
What is he smoking?
Does anyone in their right mind think Obama is going to win in that kind of landslide?
Does anyone in their right mind think Obama is going to win in that kind of landslide?
***Apparently thousands or hundreds of thousands do. I think it’s a wonderful opportunity to support McCain and make money at the same time. Don’t say I never did you any favors.
85-15 doesn’t imply a landslide... it’s just the Vegas odds for a win.
What the hell is wrong with these people?
Okay, I get it. They’re betting 85-15 it will be a win. Even if it’s only a .5% win.
Intrade is a market, not a bookie setting odds. If you think the odds of him winning are better than 15% then for you it’s a buy. For someone else it may not be enough. That’s the way markets work. It sounds like you don’t understand that part of the Intrade concept.
But this seems to imply that there is some attempt by some large investor to manipulate toward McCain. I can't believe the McCain camp would waste their time with it.
I remember when Intrade had Hillary way out front and Rudy a distant second. Their investors aren't any smarter than other stock market investors.
Buying McCain at 15 is great odds and a great bet.
George Soros?
But this seems to imply that there is some attempt by some large investor to manipulate toward McCain.
***You obviously didn’t read the article. It was an institution looking to hedge some risk.
I agree. Tell your friends. Shoeshine boys will be delivering this tip on Tuesday.
I've heard enough of these phrases:
We have carried out an extensive investigation
A full and careful examination
I have spoken to those involved personally.
We are satisfied that they are using our markets in good faith
"Trust Me"
I understand. You’re embarrassed because you didn’t comprehend the article and now you’re backtracking. Or perhaps it is that you only read the title.
You got me!
“Intrade is a market, not a bookie setting odds. If you think the odds of him winning are better than 15% then for you it’s a buy. For someone else it may not be enough. That’s the way markets work. It sounds like you don’t understand that part of the Intrade concept.”
Correction for above advise...if you think the odds of McCain winning are higher than 50% then the present 15% odds at Intrade make this an excellent opportunity. You cannot win after election time because unlike markets this one ends. So, it is like gambling because there is a specific event determining the end of the bet. It is more like a bookie setting odds than you might think.
Intrade isn’t like the stock market...it is gambling. There is an end to the gamble when one wins or loses. Markets continue on without a specific event ending the investment. With the exception of a company folding.
Or a certain loss.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.