The MSM's (Poll) Cooking Show [Vanity]

My teeny, tiny little pea-sized brain | 14 Oct 2008 | Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Text of an email I'm sending out. Please feel free to use it yourselves, if you like, add to it, whatever. We need to try to counter the MSM's perceptions. 300,000 FReepers sending out 50 emails each would do it, if we could get the FReepers to play along.

BTW, I know this is a vanity, and I'm not ashamed to admit it.

[svcw]

JSM is not WAY down in the polls.

[Rapscallion]

I get one vote and I will cast it for Palin and McCain.
They will win because they are right.

[teletech]

The new Whitehouse chef will have to be very good at Soul Food.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

I know. Read the whole thing, eh?

[eureka!]

Thanks for the effort. A vanity with much substance. Mark and bump...

[jveritas]

Excellent analysis.

[CatOwner]

Do you have all of the national polls and their internals? It would be interesting to see all of the polls normalize to DEM+2 instead of whatever party affiliation they have conjured up.

[svcw]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

[svcw]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

[svcw]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

[svcw]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

[svcw]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Sorry I’ll go back, I stopped when it said “way down”.

That's okay, sometimes I go a little overboard with the dramatic effect :0

[floridagopvoter]

“Do you have all of the national polls and their internals? It would be interesting to see all of the polls normalize to DEM+2 instead of whatever party affiliation they have conjured up.”

The latest national polls are here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Zogby weighs to +2% Democrats from what I have seen.

Later today (5 PM EST, I believe) LA Times/Bloomberg will be releasing their latest national poll.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Do you have all of the national polls and their internals? It would be interesting to see all of the polls normalize to DEM+2 instead of whatever party affiliation they have conjured up.

I don't have every last one at my fingertips, sorry. I've looked at the major ones to come out (including some posted by yourself!) and noticed this trend, which a lot of others have noticed as well. The Rasmussen polls you can't get access to unless you're a "Premium Member" (and I'm not willing to shell out any money to Ras, that's for sure), so I can't speak to them specifically, but I include them in my general comments about polling bias because the data I collated from 2004 for polling accuracy against actual vote totals showed Rasmussen having poor accuracy, and the largest bias towards Kerry of any polling house included in my data set. On that basis and on the basis of the trend in similar national polls and the verified demographic oddities found in said polls, I would say that Rasmussen is most likely off in his partisan breakdowns as well.

[Brett66]

The first thing I ask whenever I see a poll is -what's the weighting? Why is it not using historical weighting?

I'm bookmarking a lot of these polls, it will make for some interesting reading after the election.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Oh yeah, I forgot, but in the Newsbusters article, Blumer does a renormalisation to the same partisan breakdown as in the Sept 5-10 poll (which was D+2 IIRC), and concluded that McCain was actually ahead 3-4% or so.

[Twinkie]

Nah. Just a little bowl of arugula will do.

[KansasGirl]

Very good post!