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Warning: Nasty Surprises Coming Next Week (Gloom & doom in stock market)
moneyandmarkets ^ | 09-21-08 | Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Posted on 09/21/2008 8:54:27 AM PDT by dennisw

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To: dennisw

He’s saying there will be a selling stampede. Maybe so but it will be met with a buying stampede that he conveniently failed to note.

The buying stampede will NOT be enthusiastic investors rushing into the market buoyed by confidence.

The buying stampede will be long-term short positions covering in a rush to take profits because ...

with no short sales, the ability to keep a stock down goes away. The downward pressure is dramatically lessened.

Any short worth the gray matter between their ears will cover, go to cash and sit on the sidelines for awhile.


61 posted on 09/21/2008 10:16:14 AM PDT by Hostage
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To: G.Love
"What’s this guy selling? Gold? Commodity funds?"

Low mileage Edsels.

62 posted on 09/21/2008 10:30:45 AM PDT by fuzzthatwuz
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Comment #63 Removed by Moderator

To: sf4dubya

Well you might research stocks that are solid but with a large short interest and large institutional ownership. They should get a pop.

Large institutional ownership is indicative of stability and a low float.

Large short interest on such stocks indicates short squeeze could be brutal and quick.

Good luck.


64 posted on 09/21/2008 11:22:44 AM PDT by Hostage
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To: freekitty

Succinct and to the point.

And now nobody has any idea how to fix the mess we are in.

The CEO’s who ran these companies into the ground and then walked away should be stripped of all bonuses and pay. Lehman’s CEO made $70 last year or this year....cannot recall which. And he can walk away and keep it all!

WHY AREN’T PEOPLE OUTRAGED?

If this is capitalism, then I say no thanks!


65 posted on 09/21/2008 11:25:58 AM PDT by Red in Blue PA ("I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction" Obama, from Au)
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To: dennisw

General motors and Ford are at deaths door, so what else is new!!


66 posted on 09/21/2008 11:26:18 AM PDT by org.whodat (Republicans should support the SAM Walton business model, and then drill???)
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To: Hostage

Re: Well you might research stocks that are solid but with a large short interest and large institutional ownership. They should get a pop

Who is to say they won’t ban short selling on another sector next week?

The rules keep on changing.

Not a good thing for a supposedly transparent market. Lately, the USA financial system resembles more of a banana republic than that of an industrialized nation.


67 posted on 09/21/2008 11:28:12 AM PDT by Red in Blue PA ("I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction" Obama, from Au)
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To: Red in Blue PA

And believe it or not, it’s as simple as that. We have a great amount of debt and all of that debt is suspect. It will take a long time to straighten this mess out. Can you believe the last time we had actual record keeping was between 1945-1980? One of the ways to recovery is for the people themselves to get rid of their debt and not live beyond their means.


69 posted on 09/21/2008 11:51:53 AM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote.)
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To: NoControllingLegalAuthority

“Expect some dramatic youtube videos of thousands diving from tall buildings.”

I’ve been looking for a tall building in my town, but can’t find anything taller than two stories. With my luck, I’d end up with a broken ankle and my portfolio would still suck. ;>)

This may all shake out to be not nearly as bad as some of the most dire posts have suggested. As you pointed out on another thread, how much of the value of “bad paper” that can actually be recovered is TBD.

But one thing is for sure: Heads should roll, and reckless lending practices and exotic financial investment vehicles need to be eliminated


70 posted on 09/21/2008 12:10:11 PM PDT by EEDUDE
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To: DevSix
if I'm not mistaken the DOW was actually about even last week at the end of the day (even with two big down days).

Yes yes...Like McCain said, our economy is fundamentally strong...

This is like living in a political twilight zone.

In this zone, if truth were a 50,000 ton silver ball, you couldn't find it with a metal detector.

71 posted on 09/21/2008 12:15:41 PM PDT by dragnet2 (The chickens are coming home to roost from their global adventure)
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To: DevSix
We are in a crisis that has yet to end. May I remind many of you that October historically has been the month when catastrophic things seem to happen in the market. My guess is we are looking for a safe monetary haven and that is bonds or gold.
72 posted on 09/21/2008 12:20:51 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Red in Blue PA

They (Bush,Paulson,Bernanke) are doing the right things. Any student of the Great Depression will acknowledge that the Fed govt and Banks should have done exactly what is being done now.

It’s not fun to watch nor is it calming at the outset. But it will stabilize and the spector of bananas will fade.

The markets were rigged, margin and leverage were outrageously high, the new rules will return markets to an environment of the 1980s and early 1990s and it wasn’t so bad then. In fact the 1980s were extremely good for investors.

Right now there are opportunities and the USA is still the first class capitalist country leader in the world and will be for our lifetime.

So all the sour faces don’t bother me. The country needs to flush out the bad apples in financial institutions. The only thing that will make me doubt will be a lack of investigation and bringing the culprits to justice. Right now the blame game is just getting started.

I made a fortune after Ken Lay, Fastow and all the Enron miscreants were brought out into the open. I invested heavily in the IPP sector when it was thrown out with the trash. Just look at a chart of TXU to see what I mean.

So this is an opportunity. Over the next three years I will be monitoring the financial sector. Right now it is volatile and I don’t expect it to come back right away even if there are spectacular one-day gains.

Home builder stocks seem good to go for now. Buffett’s buying and they seem to have bottomed and are gaining.


73 posted on 09/21/2008 1:12:35 PM PDT by Hostage
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To: sf4dubya

Sounds like a sound strategy to me what you’re doing.

I think you are too concerned about inflation. The banks will dump their bad paper and get cash for them. What they do with the cash will be to revive the housing industry but not too intensely.

Keep an eye on home building stocks, especially the ones that Buffett is buying.

And if you bought your house at a reasonable price, you shouldn’t worry.

BTW buying cheap bonds is ALWAYs a good play if the company behind them is sound.


74 posted on 09/21/2008 1:19:25 PM PDT by Hostage
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To: dennisw
What is included in the total besides failed mortgages?

Are they taking on the expensive, million dollar plus mansions that have been foreclosed on in places like California?

What about the speculator property foreclosures what about commercial ventures??

I favor them taking over home loans owned by private citizens, but not specs and commercial.

75 posted on 09/21/2008 2:25:31 PM PDT by elpadre (nation)
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To: sf4dubya; Hostage

What about silver? Been thinking about it quit a bit the last few days.


76 posted on 09/21/2008 2:31:38 PM PDT by ovrtaxt ( One useless man is a shame, two is a law firm, and three or more is a Congress. --John Adams)
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To: vietvet67

I have it all.


77 posted on 09/21/2008 2:34:54 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: Hostage

VWNDX is rock bottom and should be a good mutual to start at.


78 posted on 09/21/2008 2:36:56 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: eyedigress

lol.

Guess I’ll stop my tunnel digging. :-)


79 posted on 09/21/2008 3:04:01 PM PDT by vietvet67
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Comment #80 Removed by Moderator


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