Obama Blue 234
McCain Red 226
Too close to call Purple 78
From the looks of the map, liberals are really going to hate all of “fly-over country hicks” even more after the election. Wonder how they’re going to frame their session move then? Will they name it EastWestCoastia?
Looking at realclearpolitics.com - I have noticed that some states have not been polled in over a month and there is no post Convention or more to the point, Post-Palin effect measured. But the states that have been polled recently there is a McCain/Palin surge and even formerly solid blue states like MI, PA & MN are looking scary to the Democrats.
I want to see large states like CA polled to show it getting tighter forcing Obama to throw money all over the place. I am starting to think this election will be somewhere between the 1988 Bush-Dukakis race 426-111 and the 1996 Clinton-Dole race 379-159. I see a solid win. Not a close one but a solid thumping.
I can’t help but to think the “white elephant”, and not many talking heads are not saying and I think the polls miss, is Obama’s name and his race.
My aunt is a diehard Democrat, has been since FDR, and pulls that “D” lever as automatic as breathing. I have had some fun political discussions with her over the years. But when she was over visiting and the news mentioned something about Obama and I made a comment - I was surprised that she started to lay into the guy. Now from my point of view this 80 year old woman’s 1st complaint is his race and foreign name, but she was trying to cover it up with other points like his lack of experience.
My point is I live in the Tampa Florida area and I have to deal with seniors almost daily and here in Florida they are a huge and powerful voting bloc. I think allot of people when asked by a pollster are not going to tell their true feelings, they may use another excuse like “Lack of experience”.
I think this issue is bigger than the media is pointing out, enough so that if you take the current polls and give Obama’s opponent a 5 to 10 point advantage because of this you are looking at a landslide.
Now I want to play a little “Cover your Posterior” here. I am not racist; I would like to think I am realistic. My boss at where I work is black, great guy. I even nominated him at work for “Best Manager” award at work. I did seasonal work up in the NYC area for 19 years. But this is how I see things.
Hmmm... every large failed city is Blue. More than coincidence? I think so...
In the final moments in the voting booth, 70 % of the “undecided” vote will go to McCain-Palin. B.O. is the emtiest of empty suits.
How does Zogby adjust for the “Bradley effect”. I would expect the effect to be most pronounced at ideologically rigid colleges and universities, where students are pressed to “toe the party line” or get slammed in more or less subtle ways.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_bradley_effect.html
I used a hue that deviates from the red by 24 points, the same as Zogby's deviates from the blue. I used Zogby's saturation, and a lightness the same as the original red and blue (Zogby went much darker to look more like the blue.):
Something like this would be more unbiased and give the proper impression:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/08-il-pres-ge-mvo.php
The above poll has not been updated since the wave of Gov Palin came on strong. Barry may well be below 50% in Illinois, but no one is noticing. If the Indies and disenchanted DEMS are switching sides and since both King Richard of Chicago and Gov Blow-Dry-o-Vich have been relatively kind to Gov Palin, I think Illinois could surprise people.
Minn has 10 EC votes
NC has 15
Va has 13
NM gas 5
43 votes from those states for McCain;
enough to put him at 269...
See the EC vote map at
http://www.270towin.com/
The majority of the states show “Last Update” in July— PP(Pre Palin).
This is the site I’m following:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html
The guy who runs it is a democrat, but his projections are fair and he nailed it in 2004.