Posted on 08/28/2008 4:33:08 PM PDT by Fred
Ah, yes, band together.
Let them do it. In the end Russia will lose big time.
Russia is cash rich and in the black, so they can run for a while.
Meanwhile, China will be interested in extra oil, and just loves to not do what we ask (a boycott), and some one's economy must go without oil right away, who's it going to be, Europe or the US?
If they reduce flow or shut it off, Poland should padlock the valves on their side of the line, and leave it shut off for another week or so after the Russians try to put it back into service.
What about that line from the Caspian to Europe by way of Ukraine? Time to get that thing underway, no?
I'm also shorting Obama.
Apparently there is no Russian word for “fungible”.
The Cold War is back and we had better face it!
I think I saw this in a Larry Bond book years ago.
I understand that a fair amount of foreign investment has fled Russia since the Georgia thing.
It seems foolish to play chicken with a fungible commodity.
If Russia loses it’s energy revenue, they’ll probably be out of money in short order.
Seems they need to sell it as much as Europe needs to buy it.
And if Poland isn’t going on a crash diversification program, they are dunderheads.
Oh, B.S. It will take 10 years to see the effects of this oil cutoff at the pump and it probably won’t drive prices up more than a few cents............./s
Most thinking Americans with common sense have seen all of this coming since the Arab oil embargo of the seventies. Some people have wondered why this oil strategy agianst the West hasn't happened sooner. And yes it will work better than the Russian Army. It only depends on how long Russia can do without foreign cash coming in and on how long the West can hold together. I expect the Arabs to start doing this again in earnest some day in coordination with Russia. (The next serious MidEast war should cause it.)
Their cash position is contracting. Western capitalists are making for the door and cash inflows from investment are way down. The big money guys are starting to see that the Russians can't be trusted to keep their mitts of foreign owned assets. Cutting off oil to the west will play hell in the short term. Medium term and beyond? They can't eat oil. And wars are expensive.
Well, if he does carry out the threat... Russia has shot the last bullet in it’s arsenal (outside of full-scale war).
Because after that, just what can Russia do to Europe and America should we... counterattack.
For example, Putin shuts off Western Europe’s oil and natural gas. So, then the US and EU shut down all trade with Russia.
What can Russia do about it? Outside of full-scale war... they have no more options.
And if there isn’t any more options, then the diplomatic game is lost.
Just off the top of my head ... maybe a majority of Americans don't want to see a large number of major American cities reduced to irradiated rubble over a small ex-SSR.
Fungible is not just a funky word. Russia is going to get hurt if they keep this up.
Exactly. Venezuala is a perfect example.
Chavez *HATES* America. But guess who they sell the most oil to?
America.
Why? Cause if they don’t, Chavez will be out on his @ss in one of the quickest revolutions ever seen, for his oil money is buying loyalty.
Without it, he’s gone.
For us more than them.
Medium term and beyond?
We will pull ourselves out and replace the loss, but it will NOT (ever again) be cheap.
They can't eat oil.
They won't have to starve if anyone breaks the boycott.
And wars are expensive.
The way we fight them, Ruskies collect as they go, so it takes longer to cost them.
We could always count on help from the UN.
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