2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, August 4, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[HighlyOpinionated]

My Prediction: John McCain by 4.5% of the total votes cast and with enough electoral votes to win the nomination. It's going to be close in some of the States listed as Democrat wins. Any State with about a 40% chance of McCain winning is going to go McCain by slight margins, but enough votes not to need a recount. This is based on the continued imploding of Barry Obama which is progressing nicely.

There is just too much time between Barry Obama declaring himself High Potentate-King-Caliph of the Americas and the General Election. He can't/couldn't maintain his hold on Voters long enough to win the election, which is why McCain's numbers are rising as Obama's are falling, albeit slowly. We don't want the numbers to move too quickly, after all. The more the public hears Obama's rants, the less likely they are to vote for him once they get inside the voting booth. Do Not believe the exit polls. They'll show an Obama victory, but it won't hold up at the end of the day. People will say "on the record" what is popular to say. I predict that in decidedly "black" areas that Obama will not get all the black votes. And in decidedly liberal areas, Obama has a margin but it won't be a big as the Democrats hope.

AND who do you have to thank for the Republican surge? Why Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, of course.

[Cyber Liberty]

Intrade predicted Duncan Hunter would win the Republican nomination for President.

[Momaw Nadon]

"InTrade predicted Duncan Hunter would win the Republican nomination for President."

Um, no it didn't.

[Cyber Liberty]

You mean Kevmo, who was spamming FR threads, was lying? I am gobsmacked!

:^)

[Momaw Nadon]

I’ll recheck the numbers and the charts, but I do not believe that Duncan Hunter, (Who I voted for in the Primary), was ever in the lead to win the Republican Nomination for President on InTrade.

[bIlluminati]

A common call was 269-269, if McCain picks up Ohio, New Hampshire, and a couple other states. However, most people, including this mapping, forget that Nebraska will almost certainly give Obama at least one electoral vote.

But Obama has the odds against him. Quite a few voters who voted for Bush in 2004 will return in 2008 against Obama.

[Cyber Liberty]

I think Duncan Hunter was looking half-way decent, enough to create a “buy” position so Kevmo could make a few bucks off FReepers. It’s a living wonder he’s still allowed to post. The Michael Milken of FR.

[Norman Bates]

Don't shoot the messenger! ;-)

Not at all, FRiend. I think there is something different happening this cycle. Obama has been ahead for so long and has set the expectations so high that people don't want to let go of him even perhaps InTraders. Oh well. I'm confident we are in a good position to beat Obama and keep the White House in 2009. :-)

[Norman Bates]

“However, most people, including this mapping, forget that Nebraska will almost certainly give Obama at least one electoral vote.”

Will NOT happen. You may think that now but if you knew all the ammo we have stocked up I can promise you he won’t win didly in Nebraska. Let me put it another way, even now before all the ammo has flown Obama is a TWENTY-FOUR percent in Oklahoma. The man is toast.

[Momaw Nadon]

I try not to deal in rumors or unsubstantiated accusations. Rather, I prefer facts.

This is a chart of Duncan Hunter futures prices on InTrade. I don't have a picture of a bunny or a pancake to go with it.

[Cyber Liberty]

You would have had to have been there. The guy was spamming up every thread to get people to go there and sink money into InTrade, to boost his buy position.

[Kevmo]

I said the smart money was on Hunter. I compared his price to Thompson. If you put $1000 down on Thompson, right now you’d get, what $10? And at the time, if you put $1000 down on Hunter, right now you’d get either $500 or $1000. Would you rather lose $990 over a candidate or $500?

What I failed to perceive at the time was that the Republican party would let the whole process of whittling down participants in the debates be run by the media. At the time Hunter was disallowed entry, he had one delegate and that piece of dog feces Rudy had none, as well as 2 other participants in the New Hampshire debate and similarly onward.

Anyways, thanks for the opportunity to B4DH, the best man in the race.

[Kevmo]

If you bothered to read through the threads, you’d know whether or not I had any money riding on Hunter. It’s obvious that you proceed from which you do not know, building further upon your ignorance to the point that, well, there’s not much of a good reason to listen to you.

[Kevmo]

Um, stop lying.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the probabilities above, the results of 20,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The "GOP Electoral Votes" is the expected value (probability weighted average). The "Probability of 270" is the point on the cumulative probability distribution for 270 electoral votes or higher.

Week	GOP Electoral Votes	Probability of 270
7-Jan	241.05	20.18%
14-Jan	235.29	14.70%
21-Jan	234.76	14.66%
28-Jan	236.58	15.44%
4-Feb	236.26	15.41%
11-Feb	237.25	16.43%
18-Feb	230.61	12.69%
25-Feb	233.56	15.44%
3-Mar	234.54	16.27%
10-Mar	240.26	22.49%
17-Mar	244.58	24.60%
24-Mar	249.73	28.50%
31-Mar	252.18	30.87%
7-Apr	248.97	27.60%
14-Apr	249.24	27.62%
21-Apr	247.86	25.60%
28-Apr	251.65	29.06%
5-May	250.84	28.07%
12-May	252.31	29.25%
19-May	248.73	25.99%
26-May	250.15	27.10%
2-Jun	248.98	26.46%
9-Jun	247.87	26.81%
16-Jun	248.41	26.06%
23-Jun	233.92	15.76%
30-Jun	234.84	16.21%
14-Jul	237.43	19.14%
21-Jul	231.61	14.15%
28-Jul	233.21	15.18%
4-Aug	234.45	16.45%

For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 4-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 232.92, Probability of 270 = 3.11%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in 261.93 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 36.63% chance of winning.

-PJ