The World consumption is ~ 100 Mill Barr a day.
4.3 Bill / 100 Mill = 43 Days
Another 43 Days of driving.
Good Luck.
Posted on 04/10/2008 6:23:09 PM PDT by neverdem
Everything you mentioned happens, from time to time. But I know for a fact (based on my personal experiences) that there are many fields, some discovered 20 years ago or more, that contain millions of barrels of oil (or the equivalent in gas), that have never been produced due to political pressure from the left. That is a simple fact of life in these United States. We're paying other countries (some of which support &/or turn a blind eye to terrorism targeted at us) $112 per barrel for oil that we refuse to produce ourselves.
Sorry, but that's the way it is...
The estimates are varyingly referring to amounts discovered, amounts proven, amounts potentially exploitable, etc etc. I suggest finding somebody that is experienced in reading these sort of reports. Also, remember that, depending on who is doing the estimating, the amount that is recoverable in their estimation may vary from a low of about 3% up to about 16% from what I’ve seen so far.
I wish I had more answers. FReeper, Smokin’ Joe, works up in the Bakken fields and seems to know what he is talking about. You may want to look for his recent posts.
An ice age is coming, and we need to burn fossil fuels to save the earth. Drill, drill drill.
Another term worth mentioning is 'temporarily abandoned.' And even if an exploratory or delineation well might be "P & A'd," it in no way suggests that the field it discovered/delineated is not capable of commercial production, at least where I spent 20 years of my professional life. That is true for other regions as well: the name "Kaktovik" comes to mind.
And there are very few circumstances where what you describe would actually happen with an oil well...
Unfortunately, you are entirely incorrect, when it comes to certain Federal oil & gas leases - to the tune of hundreds of millions of barrels recoverable.
Best regards...
This is interesting! Where are those fields? In the U.S.? On shore-off shore? Alaska? Have these fields been drilled into or is it just maybe gas or oil in the ground?
Wacko, Dim Environuts are busy searching for a plant or animal species that can be used to subvert any new petroleum output w/in the U.S..
But 20 billion barrels is only about a thousand days worth for the entire United States, so (according to the environmentalists) it's not worth bothering with - which is why I don't recycle aluminum cans, or turn off the lights when I leave a room...
The U.S. Is Poised to Hit a New Oil Gusher
"A new black gold rush is under way, this time in North Dakota. The potential payoff is huge -- up to 100 billion barrels of oil. That’s twice the size of Alaska’s reserves and potentially enough to meet all U.S. oil needs for two decades."
It sounds like a lot.
Thanks for the link.
“This is disappointing, it was originally being stated there were 400 billion barrels. 4.5 billion sounds like a lot, but it only represents a 215 day supply for the US...we use 20 million barrels a day....nice to have, every little bit helps, but this is a little bit.”
—
In my best Hilarious parody:
Ya’know AlrightOTLC, what’s really disappointing is how lousy a mathematics education the fruits and nuts in Kali receive.
Ya’know, it takes a 1,000 thousands to total up to a million. It takes a 1,000 millions to total up to a billion.
Ya’know, at a drawdown of 20 million per day, the U.S. consumes 7.3 billion barrels per year. 400 billion represents 50+ years at current usage rates.
But, ya’know, AlRightOTLC, we need someone on the Left Coast to misrepresent issues. Call me.
Crude oil is fungible. Whether the particular oil produced in ND stays in the US or is sold overseas really is irrelevant to whether it’s on the ‘world market’ or not. If it stays here, we don’t buy the same amount of oil from elsewhere.
And yes, all other things being equal, increased supply drives down prices.
This report is a deliberate under count. The newer wells that have been drilled are initially producing 2000 barrels per day, which is pretty healthy. After 1-2 months production decreases to 500-700 bopd. They are still experimenting on how far to place the wells to achieve optimal production. In addition, fracturing the shale (Stacfracking) is still a relatively new process and is constantly being refined. Intial guesstimates were recoveries in the 10-18 percent of oil in the ground. If that’s the case then they are only estimating 40-60 billion barrels. This is way out of line with many of the earlier estimates. I’m just not buying it. LC Price who worked for the USGS estimated reserves at 200 billion initially but raised it to 413 billion. His report never was released as he died prior to its review. It was kept locked away for many years, probably to allow the right people to acquire the mineral rights to prime parcels.
Marathon Oil is involved and Shell is getting involved. They wouldn’t do this for less than several hundred thousand bpd. It just doesn’t make any sense for them to bother with smaller fields. Those are best left to independents who have lower costs and great efficiencies. Then the majors can just buy them up after the fields have been developed, but no major is chasing small fields. Additionally, the pipeline in this area was expanded recently to handle 250000 bopd. This includes the Canadian production.
So what are the reasons for downplaying the significance of this play? Stop prime leases from getting bid up, too late for that. Wait for the exact right time to release the actual reserve numbers, not sure about that? Downplay it to keep the enviro wackos away, perhaps. Any other guesses.
In conclusion, the report is just not consistent with the results of wells currently being drilled. Also not with the interest of the majors starting to occur. Also not with the pipeline expansion. It just makes no sense to this humble observer unless there are other factors at play. Or maybe I am wrong about the whole thing.
Some numbers:
US oil consumption = about 20 million barrels a day.
X 365 = 7.3 billion barrels a year.
World consumption = about 90 million barrels per day.
X 365 = about 33 billion barrels a year.
Both those numbers are growing at about 2% a year.
ANWR reserves are estimated to be from 4.5 to 11 billion barrels. The center of that estimate range is the most probable amount.
Saudi Arabia’s reserves are estimated at 260 billion barrels. Iraq’s at 110 billion barrels.
BTW, you cure the potential problem you discussed by slapping a compensating tariff on the imports, in order to maintain the actual price for Bakken (et al.) crude at (say) $60/bbl. The 'disincentive problem', so called, is absolutely NOT a problem until the politicians and the environazis MAKE it a problem.
Ask anyone working in the Bakken. Try Smokin' Joe, for instance, who's worked there for some years.
Not to say that there aren't others, but onshore, I am aware of just one big find in the lower 48 — at the time estimated at half a billion barrels -- which is not being produced. It is / was in the Northwestern arm of the Great Salt Lake. Extra heavy and [IIRC very very sour] oil. Such low quality that in the 1980s it was not considered salable due to the available refineries being unable to process the stuff without a very significant expenditures on upgrades.
This discovery was not a secret. Probably commercial at these prices but I have heard nothing in the last twenty years. Amoco ... now BP?
The U.S. government estimated Thursday that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil can be recovered from the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana, using current technology... North Dakota's entire oil production hit 137,000 barrels a day in January, the latest figures available. Industry officials believe the state's record production of 148,500 barrels a day, set in 1984, will be surpassed this year... The report released Thursday by USGS was done at the request of Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan over the past 18 months... A 1995 study by the USGS found 151 million barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken using technology at that time. "This is great news,'' Dorgan said of the new report. "This is 25 times the amount of the previous assessment.''
List of countries by oil proven reserves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_proven_reserves
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