Posted on 04/07/2008 3:32:18 AM PDT by ovrtaxt
Isn’t Peter Schiff the perma-bear who’s often on Kudlow’s show? He makes some good points, but a perma-anything is a dangerous animal for investors to follow.
Peter Schiff .... I have his book and agree with his take on things but the mess was created by Greenspan. Ben Bernanke is doing the best he can to clean up. I would like to see Peter Schiff take Bernanke’s job and do any better. I doubt he would
It’s easy to rail against Bernanke but none of his critics would do any better. We have a very bad situation due to our love for making easy money via taking on debt and packaging and selling debt
Perma bear looks good now
He’s been a perma-bear as long as the market’s been worthy of it.
He’s been bullish on lots of stuff, just not the same stuff that’s usually pawned off by the lemmings, so they say he’s bearish. His clients are doing quite well right now, from what I understand.
But market gurus come and go. Right now, he’s a prophet. If history is any indicator, he won’t be one forever.
tend to agree. But I think that's because Schiff probably views the system itself as the problem. Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanc, so to speak. I have big doubts about it myself.
Schiff is a movie critic. He doesn’t make movies. It’s 100 more difficult to produce and make a movie
100x more difficult
Perma bear looks good now
We've had roughly 8 months of selling with a few sharp, but brief rallies. Bear markets don't usually last much longer than that, although there's no way to be certain this one won't. Still, a toe in the water here or there isn't a bad bet at this time, I suspect.
That’s a reasonable take.
Well, that’s me- mister reasonable! Just ask my family... hehe
Here’s what Euro Pacific’s senior strategist is saying, based on cascading effects of the bailout plan:
“First, we should expect a continued erosion of the U.S. dollar as interest rates are lowered further to avert depression and as inflation subsequently morphs into hyperinflation.
Eventually, we should expect massive growth in the dollar earnings of green alternative energy companies as the confiscated largesse of the American citizen is pushed into that sector of the economy.
It remains to be seen whether Congress will authorize the required massive level of trillions of dollars in funding soon enough to avoid the present recession morphing into a depression.
Whatever the result, it is increasingly clear that the government intends to leave it for future generations to pay the ‘real’ bill for the reckless conduct of Wall Street and our Fed over the past decade.
In the meantime, investors keen to preserve their wealth should look abroad to the productive corporations and currencies of economies that continue to produce more than they consume.”
link:
http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00362
I would not be lowering rates. That doesn't help anyone in the short run and causes more problems in the long run. The confidence that will lower jumbo rates and other long term rates can only come from dampened inflation fears and a thorough housecleaning of bank balance sheets. Both of those are not helped by lowering short term rates. Also Bernanke said in his 2001 speech that if short term rates don't work he will monkey with longer term rates. That will just take us one step closer to hyperinflation.
As always, glad Ben is in charge and not you.
There is not much difference in that statement and a bank robber telling the cop it was his fault because he didn't stop him from stealing.
So who’s the cop? The government, or the consequences of the market itself?
At first glance, I like it. I think the control freaks among us won't go for it though. No opportunity to expand their power and importance. Plus, I think the Fed is looking forward to their new, powerful role with brokers and hedge funds.
In a sentence you’ve basically described the reason that all government eventually leads to tyranny. People who are power hungry go into government for that very reason, and you’re right, they are unlikely to pass up an opportunity like this. Still, I thought I’d put my thoughts out there all the same.
Like many in your industry, you've completely missed the point. The market (or information flow) is working fine, but the bad information is being input by the Fed. Short term rates are and were too low both here and Japan as evidenced by the carry trade and lowering of spreads. There is no reason that the market should price fake "AAA" securities in a traunche backed by crappy mortgages other than excessive liquidity and carry trade.
The answer is to let the market set the rates. Right now 2 year treasuries are being forced down by the anticipation of lower short term rates, plus the flight to quality. That drives down all sorts of other long rates (carry trade) below a realistic inflation rate plus risk premium.
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