'Osama bin Laden is Planning Something for the US Election'

SPIEGEL Online ^ | April 02, 2008

[phillyfanatic]

An act of violence toward the USA would not benefit Obama. It might not even benefit ole John. But, it would make Americans furious if it were a home grown attack on our domestic security. If it occurs in Iraq, Arabia, Afghan., it will simply hurt most Republicans who campaign on winning the war. That is too bad since the war against Islamofascism is noble but of course with American patriotism waning, especially in Blue states and with the young, moderates, any Osama attack might not benefit John as it would ordinarily.

[Crimson Elephant]

This is interesting from a detached “game theory” type point of view. Would Osama prefer Obama because either A) The US might pull away which is what Osama claims he wants or B) it allows him to declare victory in Iraq or C) It might make the US more vulnerable to attack as focus shifts back to domestic issues and Obama declares the WoT over.

Or would Osama prefer McCain because A) McCain actually wants a battle between the US and the AQ brand, and Osama WANTS it that way...so he can have more targets or B) go down as a martyr even when they lose or C) He views it as American spending its wealth on killing mosquitoes with missles..like a reverse Ronald Reagan.

Maybe Osama just prefers a confrontation in black and white terms, but one would think he would prefer a pull out of Iraq so he can claim a win, and then attack the retreat (figuratively speaking).

Of course, this assumes OBL is not dead, and assumes he has far more control than I believe he really has. Al Q is a lot more like the Sopranos than anything else. Loose associations of families who can easily go off the reservation rather than a military styled organization. OBL is like the mafia don in prison who inspires or hints but doesn’t fully control.

[redgolum]

Trying to do to us what happened in Spain.

[RandallFlagg]

Exactly.