Panic of 2008: Is Lehman Brothers Next?

Underground Politics ^

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Approaching geezerhood.

[steve86]

She says the Fed is doing research into the Depression, what might have been done to stop or minimze the effects.

That is a ridiculous statement; the Fed is always researching issues pertaining to every possible kind of financial emergency and both Bernanke and Greenspan spent significant parts of their academic careers studying the depression. Question is did they learn anything?

[Dr. Ursus]

I just stocked up on Fancy Feast gourmet brand.It’s going
to be Road Warrior time.

[HamiltonJay]

They aren’t the only one.. trust me.

The sub prime lending mess is bigger than ANYONE is telling you or being honest about... and its unravelling is starting to unravel decades of piss poor long term fed policy.

A year ago I said this mess when all is said and done was going to be well over the Trillion dollar mark (experts were still clinging to rediculous notion that it would only be a few hundred billion)... Today its pretty obvious that it will be MULITIPLE TRILLIONS that will be gone when this is finally over.

[MarkT]

And as usual, women and minorities will be hardest hit!!!

[MarkT]

Every week, each broker dealer (BD) files a focus report which tallies the value of each security held. Since the ‘market’ for thinly-traded securities - e.g. Sub-prime Morgage Pools - is very difficult to value. If there is no market for down-rated, illiquid security, then the BD would have to hair-cut its capital as reserves. Eventually, the increased capital would eat all the firm’s free capital and the BD would violate the Net Capital rules established by the Exchanges. Poof. The firm closes.

[central_va]

Road Warrior Kill

[SE Mom]

Exactly. This is a mess- and I’m looking for someone with the WILL to be unpopular enough to solve it..

[Lazamataz]

I just stocked up on Fancy Feast gourmet brand.It’s going to be Road Warrior time.

[romanesq]

“the dow finishes the day up 200, mark my words.”

I’m marking them. But it won’t be today. Even the plunge protection team can’t keep a pretty face on this pig.

This is really bad. Imagine if you had a big holding in Bear Stearns last year at $100 or more. Now you are left with next to nothing.

Bad day for a lot of people. One billionaire investor is a billion lighter. He bought about 10% of Bear last year.

[tongass kid]

According to the OCC, U.S. Comptroller of the Currency, at U.S. commercial banks alone, the total national value of the derivatives is $172 trillion.
JP Morgan 91.7 trillion
Citi 34.0 trillion
BoA 32.0 trillion
Biggest Loser is JP Morgan with $4.16 in exposure.
I just checked my seat belt, it is snug.

[HamiltonJay]

172 Trillion in derivatives and I’d say a conservative collapse is 2-3%... agressive 5-7% or perhaps more so, take it from there. I don’t know how any reasonably responsible “analyst” could have ever predicted this thing to only be a few hundred billion...

They truly are completely dillusional on how big of a mess they have created, or how exposed they are.

[Hot Tabasco]

"-4"

My cat is watching your postings with great intent........

[underground]

Lehman Brothers is down 25% on no news but a rumor, Dow is hanging out in the low 11800s while I had expected something closer to 11750. Still wanna take the bet? :)

[investigateworld]

Question:

Can the holders of these toxic mortgage pools establish a valuation based on income stream?

Thanks

[Jay Redhawk]

That's funny, but just in case the worst should happen you should take some precautions. I would really hate to have to think of you and your daughter waiting to dig through a dumpster while my two boys and I guard our five acre garden with our Mini 14s as my wife and daughter can and preserve a years worth of food. At least acquire some weapons and ammo, and have an escape plan to the countryside.
There are plenty of out of the way places where a squatter can still survive undetected. The people of the cities will eat each other alive should another great depression occur. The United States is no longer a civilized nation in many places and you don't want to get caught in a situation where armed, hungry, violent gangsters spill out of their neighborhoods and roam the neighborhoods of the middle and upper class.
Then again, maybe I am a reactionary. But I don't intend to lose any weight over this issue.

[tongass kid]

I believe suspending the mark to market would risk the investor running for the door. May as well just shut the market down as has been done in the past. Bottom line, investors do not like book values that do not reflect reality.

[tongass kid]

That is the problem, no income stream.

[Mad Dawgg]

" At least acquire some weapons and ammo, and have an escape plan to the country"

I live in Southern Ohio there is no "countrier" place in the Midwest.

I've been long on precious metals (Lead, Copper, etc.) for over 20 years. Plus several different ga. of Remington's finest greeners and a host of rifles and such.

As far as food goes we have a garden and the Hunting is good less than 500 yards from where I currently sit. (We live in the middle of the Wayne Notational Forest)

No worries here mate.

[tongass kid]

The mess has spilled into commercial real estate. Goldman Sachs and Moody's have both indicated there will a double digit decrease in pricing of commercial real estate. As you may know, pricing is every thing in this credit tight market. Cap rates will keep the buyers away.