Posted on 01/21/2008 9:03:54 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 235.08 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
The bid price is 45.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 50.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate due to voter fraud.
Let's see what the numbers start to say once we actually know for sure who the real candidates turn out to be.
President Bush better put a bunch of stuff in place now.
Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, and Iowa all trending blue. It doesn’t look good for the GOP this November, no matter who the nominee is.
1. The trend is in our favor.
2. This is a bit ridiculous at this stage since we don’t have nominations.
That’s a swing of 35 EV. That’s not too bad.
The last few polls have shown one of two Republicans winning OH. But it’s been mixed. Still, it’s way too early to put OH in the Dem column, esp. if the candidate is Clinton.
Fuggettaboudit.
Romney brings the north (MI, IA, MO)
Game over.
Romney might have a good chance in Ohio as well, if hecontinues to talk about economic issues.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
Romney can’t win squat in the general election.
Romney is a machine, and after tomorrow, nobody will care about anything but the economy.
What's so special about tomorrow?
Pre-mature speculation. I hear they have drugs for this now.
Nope. It's "Electile Disfunction" - mostly affects RuPaul.
Once Hillary is declared the Dem nominee I bet a number of those states turn red.
Or Obama for that matter in fact he might have a harder time given the racial preferences of the swing voters of this state.
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