Wolf at the Door (Recession, Michelangelo Type Employment Statistics)

Barron's ^ | 7 January 2008 | ALAN ABELSON

[proxy_user]

Alan, you’re finally right!

That wolf must have been on a slow train, because it took him 20 years to get here.

[kinoxi]

How is five percent unemployment bad?

[fantom]

Yeah , the end is near . Sort of , maybe , it all depends. What a dope. It’s like saying , the ice is melting spring is coming , i told you , i told you ......

[lonestar67]

No. Construction does not slow during the winter months.

That has absolutely nothing to do with this.

Certainly not during a republican administration anyway.

[trane250]

...manufacturing, which was supposed be enjoying a boomlet thanks to the debased dollar and demand from abroad...

The truth is that we don't manufacture a lot of the products that folks from abroad and our own folks want to buy. So our merchandise trade deficit will not improve very much. After all, there is a natural limit to how much scrap metal, chicken feet and waste paper we can export.

[poobear]

“Construction does not slow during the winter months.”

But it does from November through the first of the year.

Commercial anyways. Hence the December statistics. Just my 2 cents.

HVACR Mechanical Contractor.

[Donald Rumsfeld Fan]

"Unemployment jumped to 5%, from 4.7%. And the big losers were widely dispersed, paced by construction, where 49,000 jobs vanished last month and manufacturing, which lost 31,000.

5% unemployment is considered full employment.

Manufacturing must and will go down within the USA because of an expading global company. Manufacturing is being outsourced which is capitalism in action.

We live in a new era of dynamic economic movement and reallocation. Get used to it.

[muawiyah]

The truth is we have been rapidly mechanizing, automating and roboticizing our manufacturing base such that we can have massive increases in industrial productivity while laying folks off and increasing exports.

What we have also been doing is dumping antiquated manufacturing processes that require high additional manual input.

Small appliance assembly comes to mind ~ and artificial flowers would be typical.

China has the hands; they have been taking on the relics of the industrial age.

Way to make a buck or two, but the USA, Japan and parts of Western Europe are already several centuries ahead of the rest of the world, and the gap is widening.

[DB]

I do believe he/she was being sarcastic.

[familyop]

The coordinated administrative hold against employment was done a month earlier than usual. The corporate purpose in the planned recession is to bring oil prices down (freight fuel), in order to resume the import binge. ...and maybe a hope on the side that temporarily choking growth in places like China in order to continue the status quo.

It won’t work very well as planned, though. Most of the people looking for work aren’t the people driving fuel hogs every time they get bored. Lay off much of the middle class, and it might work.

The lock against employment usually occurs in January/February, when the top administrators head south for their winter vacations.

[DB]

Things that are used in home construction are often make here in the US. It isn’t surprising at all that manufacturing is taking a hit by the housing slow down. From doors, windows, plumbing, electrical to manufactured lumber.

[RightWhale]

It’s not but the change could be ominous.

[muawiyah]

Definitely windows. Particularly in winter. Not gonna' let those guys open up my house in January.

[Diggity]

Yes but the labor in the vast majority of home construction are illegals and don’t show up in the stats.

This is why the home construction bust has not affect the economy as it has in the past. Illegals just go get another job. When Americans get laid off they sit around and complain and draw unemployment.

John

[kinoxi]

It could be winter and a general known trend. It could be the entire collapse of our economic system because an election with an incumbent Republican is about to take place so 5% is catastrophic. A link, for perspective, I posted earlier on this same topic. Link

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

"China has the hands; they have been taking on the relics of the industrial age. Way to make a buck or two, but the USA, Japan and parts of Western Europe are already several centuries ahead of the rest of the world, and the gap is widening."

-----

Economic literacy PING!!

Hank

[Mojohemi]

Sensationalism by the Media, everywhere you turn we have a negative report this and that. Subprime began the liberal’s avalanche and was created by the left In congress.

Banks giving out mortgage loans to people that can’t afford the loans has started a recession and Bush is pretending the economy is doing great! He is the predident, issue an executive order to lower the payroll taxes. People like myself will go broke because we can not just stop our 401k plans and the criminals in the USA knows about all of this

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

I think I see the Captain off in the distance......

Hank

[Ciexyz]

Restaurants and bars are the only industry we have in Pittsburgh PA, and County Executive (D) Dan Onorato engineered a ten percent drink tax, effective Jan. 1st.

First drink, tomorrow - air.