Posted on 01/03/2008 9:01:51 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
Fred knows what he has to do to win. (He’s never lost an election.) And he is right on track with his strategy, which is to get third in Iowa. Probably even ahead of it.
Fred will do much better than expected. The media have overplayed their hand and set up lowered expectations, just like they have in the past with Bush.
The media consistently defeat themselves.
Fred Thompson consistently comes through for conservatives.
A significant number of Republicans will not vote for Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee or McCain, as evidenced by the level of passionate comments against these candidates in the blogosphere. Whether it’s 5% or 25% of total Republican votes, it will be enough to lose.
However, if Thompson is the nominee, all Republicans will vote for him, because he has no significant policy or ideological negatives. Thompson will unite the party like Reagan did, even bringing in many Reagan Democrats.
Fred is the best shot we have at keeping the White House.
If I lived in Iowa, I’d vote for Duncan Hunter.
But Fred Thompson would be my second choice after Hunter.
Remember, this Intrade market is media-driven.
I live in Iowa and Fred gets my vote!
Romney would be the logical pick as he provides geographic and idealogical balance. He could also provide fundraising, maximizing the amount of limited party funds available to help down ticket candidates. He is also second with positives at 73%.
My first choice would be a Hunter-Thompson ticket but, at this point, I don't see how it could happen.
The “age issue” is a non-issue. The “lazy issue” is a non-issue. Meaning neither will last through the general election.
So that leaves us with Fred having the highest positives at 77%.
Follow the money
You need to spend more time talking to these people to understand just how shallow their thinking really is.
In a saner time, even a fair candidate could campaign for re-election from their front porch in Ohio as McKinnely did in 1900 or from a train tour as Truman did in 1948. Those days are long gone.
Issues without substance can be influential but not over an extended period.
It depends on what you mean by an extended period. Cases in point-- global warming, reverse discrimination, the war on poverty, the Clinton Dynasty, Jesse Jackson, the Madeline Albright view of foreign affairs . . . need I go on?
Okay, what do the charts mean?
Looks like the results of a polygraph test to me.
basically odds on gambling on the winner set up like stock. So it really means nothing.
The time of day is on the x-axis and the futures contract price is on the y-axis.
The prices go from 0 to 100.
The candidate with the highest futures contract price is the most likely to win the Iowa Caucus (according to the buyers and sellers of the futures contracts).
Unfortunately, these charts only indicate which candidate will probably win first place. It does not predict what place the non-first-place candidates will finish in.
Also, the charts are updated constantly (just refresh your browser), so there may be lead changes.
...and lots of HAIR. Sad but true, in the current superficial media climate, appearance will be a factor (minor perhaps, but not insignificant).
LOL! I hadn't thought of that. But you're right. He has enough hair to cover both his head and Fred's.
Wow, thanks a bundle for posting this thread!
since Rasmussen started posting “prediction market” results, the new front runner is... McCain.
Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts
They openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”
Snapshot from Intrade:
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 27.7
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 21.0
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 22.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 12.0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 7.5
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)3.3
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1
Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the true conservative, Hunter.
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The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
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