Posted on 11/27/2007 6:57:14 AM PST by Hydroshock
Forgot who said it, but “Wall Street has predicted 9 or the last 3 recessions.”
The IBES Valuation Model and its obvious predictive value since 1979. It predicted the 1980s bull market. It predicted the 1987 stock market crash. It predicted at least one year in advance the bear market of 2000-2002. And it announced an end to that bear market in 2002 and has remained in an exceptionally bullish posture ever since. Remember, it's a market of stocks, but even as a whole it hasn't been this undervalued in 30 yrs.
Too true!
Give us your best guess, and tell us if you're well invested in equities.
Just in time for a democrat to save the day!
Goldman employees support both parties. The Treasury Secretary and White House Chief of Staff are both notable Goldman alumns, and neither Henry Paulson nor Josh Bolten has ever been accused of supporting Democrats.
There is no “probability” about it. GS may not be able to figure it out from current data, but their ignorance does not equate with indetermanism. The CDO problem is not just going to evaporate tomorrow with another roll of the dice. We don’t get to go back 5 decades to Eisenhower or something and start over again.
The IBES valuation model compares the 12-month forward estimate earnings yield (earnings/price x 100) of the S&P 500 to the current yield of the 10-year Treasury note.
It is a model that has worked for the secular bull market running from 1982.
It presumes 2 things. That forward estimates of earnings of the S&P 500 in the model are accurate, but we are seeing lots of earnings “surprises” (so the street says). Second, the yield on the treasury note cannot exactly be considered “normal” as right now real yields on the note must be close to negative, unless we are in a deflationary period, which we could well be with the sucking sound of liquidity. In fact, one could argue treasury yields have not been normal since 2001, or so.
oh BS.pure BS.................Goldman was throat deep in the Clinton’s planned dot.com crap in the 90’s
biggest bunch of liars and thieves not in jail
Hasn’t this group already endorsed hitlery? If so, consider the source before believing the message.
From what I remember in 2004 and 2000, and in the 90’s, the donations were quite lopsided.
Have gotten into individual stocks the past 15 yrs and have done well. Remember 3 out of 4 stocks move with the general market-- do some digging and find the ones that make money and outperform the market. Or cower in fear at every negative headline that the media throw at you.
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