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Goldman ups U.S. '08 recession probability to 43% from 30%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/goldman-ups-us-08-recession/story.aspx?guid=%7BDF49B61B%2DC52A ^ | 11-27-07 | Steve Gelsi

Posted on 11/27/2007 6:57:14 AM PST by Hydroshock

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1 posted on 11/27/2007 6:57:17 AM PST by Hydroshock
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To: Hydroshock; Calpernia; cbkaty; Nervous Tick; ex-Texan; RockinRight; NVDave; Neidermeyer; ...

Economy/Credit/Housing Issues Ping List

If you want on of off this list let me know.


2 posted on 11/27/2007 6:58:06 AM PST by Hydroshock ("The Constitution should be taken like mountain whiskey -- undiluted and untaxed." - Sam Ervin)
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To: Hydroshock

So it’s still less than 50%, cool.

And the Goldman people seem to know what they are doing.


3 posted on 11/27/2007 6:59:55 AM PST by NeoCaveman ("Don't doubt me" - The Great El Rushbo)
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To: Hydroshock

Can Goldman now start resuming their generous donations to the DNC candidates?


4 posted on 11/27/2007 7:00:06 AM PST by KC_Conspirator
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To: Hydroshock
So there is a 55 to 60% chance we won't have a recession...
5 posted on 11/27/2007 7:02:51 AM PST by Russ
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To: Hydroshock
Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday said they now expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates to 3% by mid-2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4%.

YES!!!! Leave partisan politics out of this and do what is right for America and our allies!

6 posted on 11/27/2007 7:04:46 AM PST by BlabItGrabIt (Anyone opposing rate cuts is in Hillery's or Rudy's camp)
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To: Russ

Depends on whether H! is elected POTUS or not.


7 posted on 11/27/2007 7:05:16 AM PST by Paladin2 (We don't fix the problem, we fix the blame!)
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To: Russ

Way to ruin a perfectly good doom and gloom story.


8 posted on 11/27/2007 7:05:41 AM PST by jennyjenny
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To: NeoCaveman

did you forget your /s tag ?


9 posted on 11/27/2007 7:06:30 AM PST by cinives (On some planets what I do is considered normal.)
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To: Hydroshock
I keep forgetting. Does Hank Paulson work for Goldman Sachs, or the American taxpayer (this year?)

"If recession should threaten serious consequences for business (as is not indicated at present) there is little doubt that the Federal Reserve System would take steps to ease the money market and so check the movement."

---Harvard Economic Society, October 19, 1929

“Several brokerage houses tumbled; blue-sky investment companies formed during the happy bull market days went to smash, disclosing miserable tales of rascality; over a thousand banks caved in during 1930, as a result of marking down both of real estate and of securities; and in December occurred the largest bank failure in American financial history, the fall of the ill-named Bank of the United States in New York.”

~~Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920’s by Fredrick Lewis Allen

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

~~Ludwig von Mises

10 posted on 11/27/2007 7:06:52 AM PST by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: Russ
So there is a 55 to 60% chance we won't have a recession...

Nope. The permatouts have to keep a good face on. All of their rosy forecasts are meant for the rubes, to keep them from panicking. A year ago, they were saying real estate was just fine. They'd say the Titanic had only a 40% chance of sinking when it was halfway to the bottom.

11 posted on 11/27/2007 7:08:55 AM PST by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: Hydroshock

What is this obsession with the word ‘recession’? So the economy has negative growth for a quarter or two. Big deal. It’s called the business cycle. Jeesh!

Had the misfortune of sitting in a Dr’s office the other day and CNN was on the tube. Recession this. Recession that. I thought I was here on FR for a minute b/c the “news” readers were all so giddy about it like you guys


12 posted on 11/27/2007 7:11:12 AM PST by petercooper ("Daisy-cutters trump a wiretap anytime." - Nicole Gelinas - 02-10-04)
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To: Hydroshock

Why should I take the word of a company that couldn’t see the mess that THEY were making? They have no credibility at all.

LLS


13 posted on 11/27/2007 7:11:32 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims!)
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To: Hydroshock
I was talking to an older cab driver In Las Vegas the other day, and he said that every recession he can remember was preceded by a significant slowdown in business for him. Las Vegas tourism and convention business is in his opinion a very good barometer for the health of the national economy.

In his opinion, based on trends he has seen over the last few months, we have already entered a recession.

14 posted on 11/27/2007 7:12:34 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ("Wise men don't need to debate; men who need to debate are not wise." -- Tao Te Ching)
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To: Hydroshock
GS Propaganda They want to convince the Fed to lower rates to save their GS butts.

Not that lower rate wouldn't be good, but GS is just blowing hot air

15 posted on 11/27/2007 7:12:34 AM PST by Rodm (Seest thou a man diligent in his business? He shall stand before kings)
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To: cinives
did you forget your /s tag ?

Nope.

16 posted on 11/27/2007 7:14:49 AM PST by NeoCaveman ("Don't doubt me" - The Great El Rushbo)
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To: Travis McGee
I keep forgetting. Does Hank Paulson work for Goldman Sachs, or the American taxpayer (this year?)

Actually, the US President works for Goldman Sachs. That's the only way everything we've seen adds up. ;)

17 posted on 11/27/2007 7:15:28 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ("Wise men don't need to debate; men who need to debate are not wise." -- Tao Te Ching)
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To: Travis McGee
A year ago, they were saying real estate was just fine

What are you talking about, I was called a doom and gloomer and told credit and real estate are unimportant YESTERDAY.

FR has a good share of superstar economists that are only able to look at a small piece of economic news - say, Black Friday spending, ignore the big and growing pieces that are obviously faltering and declare that it's all sunshine and lollipops.

No, I'm not out there declaring the sky falling, but the picture isn't entirely rosey. If the people behind the wheel aren't careful, it will be doom and gloom.

18 posted on 11/27/2007 7:19:12 AM PST by SwankyC
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To: petercooper
What is this obsession with the word ‘recession’? So the economy has negative growth for a quarter or two. Big deal. It’s called the business cycle.

From the mouths of babes.

FYI, the current DOW-gold ratio is around 16 and dropping like a stone.


19 posted on 11/27/2007 7:19:24 AM PST by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: petercooper
This chart is a few months old, but it makes a point (to those who understand.)

To update the chart, run gold up to over $800, and the dollar down to 75.


20 posted on 11/27/2007 7:21:14 AM PST by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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