Bookies: Thompson Out, Rudy and Mitt Tops

The Street.com ^ | November 9, 2007 | Brett Arends

[tsowellfan]

If he cant overcome the media now how will he do it as President?

[Redmen4ever]

To quote myself ...

“As to whether these will be sufficient for Brother Dobson, I think they will be. I think the challenge on the right, will be from the social conservatives, not the religious right, and will be animated more by Rudy’s embrace of comprehensive immigration reform than by the moral issues.”

The second sentence lines up with what you said.

As to what impact a third-party social conservative would have, one could say that depends on so many factors. Is the candidate a prominent person, enormously wealthy, etc.? Thusfar, I have not heard of any credible name. This correlates with your figures of “30 percent,” that is, you don’t see it as very likely.

In 2000, Ralph Nader clearly cost Al Gore the election, taking more votes from the left-of-center candidate than Andre Marrou and Pat Buchanan together took from the right-of-center candidate. So, it is possible that, in a close election, a minor candidate can be decisive.

In my opinion, the odds are that, the Green Party candidate will undercut Hillary Clinton more than the Constitution Party and Libertarian Party candidates will undercut whoever is the GOP candidate. This is because something like half of the Democratic Party believes in conspiracy theories of 9-11 (along with UFOs, channeling, global warming, and who knows what else).

[Blue Highway]

It's not that he can't overcome the media, it's that the media somehow is still convincing people out there, (hopefully not someone like yourself with the name thomas sowell) that still think the media is reporting news, truthfully. If the people believe that garbage, and getting enough people to believe it, even if it's not true, a candidate can't overcome that.

I am sure Thompson will do well, but maybe I am overestimating the majority of people.

[Kevmo]

Here’s the question: “What would you put the odds of a 3rd party candidacy endorsed by Dobson et al?”

Here’s your answer: “I think the challenge on the right, will be from the social conservatives, not the religious right, and will be animated more by Rudy’s embrace of comprehensive immigration reform than by the moral issues.” The second sentence lines up with what you said.

Exactly where in the 2nd sentence are you addressing the odds? You still didn’t answer the question. Here’s a hint: Your answer will have some kind of percentage odds in it. You’ve already given us the tootyfruityrudy advertising schtick, so since we’ve already waded through the nonsense, the least you could do is answer the question.

[Redmen4ever]

I didn’t realize that you wanted a numerical answer. I hadn’t thought about this, because I don’t think Rudy has a lock on the nomination. The way I would approach this matter is to think about two things:

First, would Rudy Giuliani blow a chance on being elected President by disrespecting the main elements of the Republican coalition. Being a New York City kind of guy, he naturally has an “in your face,” confrontational style. He has shown this in the debates, vis a vis Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo. So, I think there is a chance of this.

Second, are Rudy Giuliani’s differences on policy with the religious right irreconciliable? I actually think Rudy and the religious right can find acccomodation, but only barely so. I think Rudy’s positions on immigration put him at odds with social conservatives, and I expect him to have problems with them. And, these problems can snowball to include the religious right because of Rudy’s moderate positions on abortion, etc., and his checkered personal history.

So, I agree with you that there is a significant probability of a third party effort endorsed by James Dobson, but less than a 50 percent chance. For what it’s worth, I’d say there’s a 25 percent chance that James Dobson will endorse a third party candidate, a 50 percent chance that he will decline to endorse anybody for President, and a 25 percent that he will endorse Rudy (assuming Rudy is the nominee).