Posted on 10/27/2007 7:12:41 PM PDT by nwctwx
They are warning us here in South Florida that Halloween is going to be a wash-out.
Great, just after I bought four bags of candy.
Tropical Storm Noel Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 30, 2007
Surface observations and radar from Holguin Cuba indicate that center of Noel has been hugging the north coast of Cuba. The Cuban weather station 78365...Punta Lucrecia... reported a wind shift and a minimum pressure of near 1000 mb as the center moved nearby. The radar also shows that most of the strongest convective bands are to the north of the center...while the cloud pattern is a little better organized on satellite. The SFMR on board of the U.S Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured surface winds of 52 knots to the north of the center. Based on this data...the initial intensity has been set at 50 knots. Noel has a chance to strengthen a little bit more as it moves away from Cuba and before the shear increases. The official forecast brings the intensity to 65 knots which is a blend of SHIPS and the GFDL models. Cuban radars indicate that Noel has been moving westward or 280 degrees at 10 knots. However...this motion is expected to be short-lived and the cyclone should turn toward the northwest later today and then northward...as a mid-level trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Thereafter...Noel should recurve or move northeast with increasing forward speed away from the United States. It should then become extratropical beyond 3 days over the open Atlantic. This is consistent with all track guidance which unanimously turns Noel sharply toward the northeast away from Florida in about 36 hours when the cyclone is forecast to be centered over the northwestern Bahamas. However...a tropical storm watch may still be required for Southeast Florida later today if Noel moves father westward than anticipated and the winds expand. The strong gusty winds currently affecting Southeast Florida are associated with a strong high pressure system to the north and are not directly related to the circulation of Noel. See statements from NWS local forecast office. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 30/0900z 21.3n 76.0w 50 kt 12hr VT 30/1800z 22.2n 77.4w 55 kt 24hr VT 31/0600z 23.3n 78.2w 60 kt 36hr VT 31/1800z 24.5n 78.5w 65 kt 48hr VT 01/0600z 26.0n 77.8w 60 kt 72hr VT 02/0600z 31.0n 72.4w 45 kt...becoming extratropical 96hr VT 03/0600z 37.0n 66.5w 45 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 04/0600z 45.0n 58.0w 45 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Avila
The better your costume and younger your age decides how much and what quality of candy you get at my door.
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on October 30, 2007
...Noel moving westward over eastern Cuba... At 8 am EDT...1200z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas...and a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas... Holguin...and Guantanamo. Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of Southeast Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 am EDT...1200z...radar data from Holguin Cuba indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located inland over Cuba near latitude 21.0 north...longitude 76.8 west...or about 35 miles...60 km...west-northwest of Holguin Cuba...and about 275 miles...445 km...south of Nassau in the Bahamas. Noel has been moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr. However...Noel is expected to turn toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Noel should emerge off the north coast of Cuba by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast once the center of Noel moves back over water. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km mainly to the north of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over the all of the Bahamas. These rains...particularly in Hispaniola... are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 800 am EDT position...21.0 N...76.8 W. Movement toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 am EDT. $$ Forecaster Knabb/Landsea
Yall keep a close eye on this one.
Heading WEST? Interesting.
I wish it would hit south florida......for so many reasons....
No....hurricane seasons ends the end of November.
Let me dig up the 11 am advisories to see if anything changed.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 30, 2007
...Noel weakens a little over Cuba... ...Heavy rains continue over Hispaniola...and portions of the Bahamas and Cuba... At 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas...but a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...Holguin...and Guantanamo. Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of Southeast Florida later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 21.1 north...longitude 77.4 west or about 40 miles... 60 km...east-southeast of Camaguey Cuba and about 270 miles ...435 km...south of Nassau in the northwestern Bahamas. Noel is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Noel is expected to remain inland over Cuba today and tonight...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km...mainly to the east from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas. These rains...particularly in Hispaniola... are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...21.1 N...77.4 W. Movement toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Knabb
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 30, 2007
Visible satellite imagery...radar imagery from Camaguey Cuba...and surface observations clearly indicate that the center of Noel remains inland over eastern Cuba. Plenty of rain bands... however...still extend well away from the center in the eastern semicircle...continuing the heavy rains for Hispaniola that have also spread into the Bahamas. My best estimate of the maximum winds is 40 kt...which would most likely be occurring in the bands between eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. The next Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is not scheduled until late tonight since the center of Noel will likely spend the day over land...as the aircraft do not typically make center fixes over land. The circulation center has been moving generally westward or 270 degrees at about 10 kt...to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. As that ridge slides eastward during the next couple of days as a short-wave trough approaches the East Coast of the United States...Noel should eventually move northward off of Cuba and eventually turn northeastward. The timing of the recurvature is not agreed upon by the various models...but the model consensus does not bring Noel back over water until tomorrow morning...and neither will the official forecast. The remainder of the official track is along the same path as the previous advisory...but is slower during the first three days. The forecast of an extended stay over Cuba requires a lower intensity forecast during the next 48 hours. Noel might weaken a little more today and tonight over land. Once it emerges over water again...it could restrengthen as it approaches the Bahamas...but probably not as much as in the previous advisory since the circulation will take time to become reestablished. The chances of Noel becoming a hurricane appear less now...and most of the objective guidance does not forecast this to occur. Notable strengthening could occur...however...once Noel becomes extratropical in about three days. The strong gusty winds currently affecting portions of Florida are associated with a strong high pressure system to the north and are not directly related to the circulation of Noel. See statements from NWS local forecast office. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 30/1500z 21.1n 77.4w 40 kt...inland 12hr VT 31/0000z 21.4n 78.3w 35 kt...inland 24hr VT 31/1200z 22.5n 78.7w 40 kt...near coast of Cuba 36hr VT 01/0000z 24.0n 78.6w 50 kt...over water 48hr VT 01/1200z 26.2n 77.4w 50 kt 72hr VT 02/1200z 32.5n 71.0w 55 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 03/1200z 39.0n 64.5w 60 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 04/1200z 46.5n 58.5w 60 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Knabb
How about a map?
Thanks....I hope it goes a little more west..... :)
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2007
...Noel still centered inland over Cuba... At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba westward and southward. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...Granma... Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. A tropical storm watch could be required for portions of southeastern Florida tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was located near latitude 21.0 north...longitude 78.0 west or about 30 miles... 45 km...south-southwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 280 miles...450 km...south of Nassau. Noel is moving toward the west near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Noel is expected to remain over Cuba today and tonight...but emerge off the northern coast of Cuba tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km...mainly to the northeast from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over Hispaniola...with possible isolated maximum totals of 30 inches. Total accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches...are possible over southeastern Cuba and the Bahamas. These rains...particularly in Hispaniola... are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.0 N...78.0 W. Movement toward...west near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Knabb/Landsea
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2007
The center of Noel is still clearly discernible in visible satellite imagery...having spent the day moving essentially due westward... although at a slightly slower forward speed of about 7 knots. Surface observations are generally consistent with the position derived from the imagery...although some of those observations suggest the center could be a bit south of our advisory position. The initial intensity estimate is set to 35 kt...based in part on a surface wind observation of 35 kt from a dropsonde...well to the northeast of the center...launched by the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet that has begun its synoptic surveillance mission. Despite the continued westward motion today...Noel is still expected to gradually turn toward the north during the next 24-36 hours...as the low- to mid-level ridge to its north slides eastward in advance of an approaching short-wave and frontal system. While the various dynamical models continue to disagree on how long it will take for Noel to gain any latitude...the official forecast stays close to the model consensus...which is along the same path but just a little slower than the previous advisory. From 48 hours on...the new track is essentially unchanged in taking Noel quickly northeastward while undergoing extratropical transition. Little change in strength appears likely until the system emerges back over water north of Cuba. After that...the official intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS guidance through 48 hours in calling for gradual strengthening while Noel is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Extratropical transition is expected by 72 hours...followed by continued strengthening as suggested by the global models. Some of the models predict that Noel itself will not last beyond about 3 days...and instead call for Noel to be absorbed within the frontal zone of an extratropical cyclone farther north. For now...the official forecast will assume that Noel will remain intact and provide the focus for the extratropical cyclone. The strong gusty winds currently affecting portions of Florida are associated with a strong high pressure system to the north and are not directly related to the circulation of Noel. See statements from NWS local forecast offices. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 30/2100z 21.0n 78.0w 35 kt...inland over Cuba 12hr VT 31/0600z 21.6n 78.8w 35 kt...near S coast of Cuba 24hr VT 31/1800z 22.6n 79.2w 35 kt...near N coast of Cuba 36hr VT 01/0600z 24.1n 78.8w 40 kt...over water 48hr VT 01/1800z 26.8n 77.2w 45 kt 72hr VT 02/1800z 34.0n 70.0w 50 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 03/1800z 41.0n 63.0w 60 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 04/1800z 48.5n 56.5w 60 kt...extratropical $$ forecaster Knabb/Landsea
It has been SO windy here all day, I feel like I’m in West Texas without the dust!
susie
Hopefully it was with some rain.
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