Democrat Warner Holds Large Lead Over Davis and Gilmore

Posting # 32- Good take. Here’s what I add:

NH- This one is a big problem. Bigger if Jeanne Shaheen runs. However, Shaheen wasn’t interested earlier on, so if she does run, she’ll be a reluctant candidate. Perhaps the Ron Thornburgh of New Hampshire.

CO- here’s another history lesson, remember Tim Wirth vs. Ken Cramer? I see parallels.

NE- If Mike Johanns runs, we’ll be OK. If not, than we’ve got a problem. Bob Kerrey appears to miss the limelight.

VA- if Marky Mark runs, big problem. As for the Gilmore/Davis primary, you should look at it from a statistical point of view. Jim Gilmore is a known quantity statewide. So voters are mostly fixed in their views of him, giving him little opportunity for growth. Tom Davis is not well-known outside of the DC suburbs, yet runs about as strongly as Gilmre, giving Davis plenty of opportunity to expand his support. Of course, if Mark does not run, than Gilmore is the one.

Others?

AK- this could be a headache. If Stevens finally throws in the towell (let’s hope he does), I think it will be between Dem Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and GOP state Sentor/’06 Governor candidate John Binkley. That could go either way.

ME- this one will be a barnburner. Tom Allen is a strong candidate, but the state didn’t have the anti-Pubbie backlash in 2006 to the degree that the rest of New England did, and voters have no particular complaint against Susan Collins.

KY- a potential problem, but not a certain one. Greg Stumbo’s persecution of Ernie Fletcher appears to be an act of political homicide. But it could turn out to be political murder/suicide, like the Guy Hunt/Jimmy Evans debacle in AL.

NM- It looks like the Rodents are taking a pass on this. Pete Domenici has been damaged by the U.S. Attorney imaginary scandal, but not fatally.

The Rodents?

LA- I think we’ll get that one. Treasurer John Kennedy’s party switch indicates he’ll probably run.

SD- Mike Rounds doesn’t want to live in DC. Too bad. Joel Dykstra, the most conservative Pubbie running, is the best choice available. I’m still not 100% convinced that Johnson will be running again.

DE- only if Mike Castle runs.

NJ- Anne Evans Estabrook is a wealthy Christine Whitman type. Ugh, but I’m willing to bite the bullet. She will have her own money to spend, which means the GOP can focus their resources elsewhere.

IA- Steve King and Commie Tommy Harkin have been sniping over illegal aliens and amnesty. It looks like King hasn’t ruled anything out.

AR- the GOP nominee will probably be Chuck Banks, a former U.S. Attorney who lost a House race by a wide margin in 1982. Interestingly, Mark Pryor could get a serious primary challenge from the Lt. Gov. I’m not exactly sure why.

IL, RI, MI, WV- not happening.

"NH- This one is a big problem. Bigger if Jeanne Shaheen runs. However, Shaheen wasn’t interested earlier on, so if she does run, she’ll be a reluctant candidate. Perhaps the Ron Thornburgh of New Hampshire."

Don't you mean Dick Thornburgh ?

"CO- here’s another history lesson, remember Tim Wirth vs. Ken Cramer? I see parallels."

Not encouraging. Wirth, the Boulder moonbat vs. Ken Kramer (with a "K"), the Colorado Springs Jewish Conservative Republican in 1986. Had it been two years earlier, Kramer would've likely won. Of course, Kramer ended up with the consolation prize of a federal judgeship.

"NE- If Mike Johanns runs, we’ll be OK. If not, than we’ve got a problem. Bob Kerrey appears to miss the limelight."

To this day, I will never understand why Rove & Co. plucked our best chance to defeat Ben Nelson at a most critical time (which would mean a 50-seat majority now). Bruning is not likely to get out of the way, and even if Kerrey opts not to run, Mike Fahey could end up with an Ed Zorinsky-style upset.

I'll skip the VA one, since I'm pretty firm that Davis will be a fiasco for us.

"AK- this could be a headache. If Stevens finally throws in the towell (let’s hope he does), I think it will be between Dem Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and GOP state Sentor/’06 Governor candidate John Binkley. That could go either way."

Any Republican is going to be with a slight advantage, since the state is highly reluctant to elect a federal Dem (though not disinclined to elect local Dem Governors). I'd prefer Loren Leman as our best chance. He is much like the Jim Risch of Alaska. Begich has a better shot at reclaiming his dad's House seat (something we also need to look out for -- it's time for Young to go), though absent those opportunities, he's not going to have another chance for office until probably 2014 with the Governorship.

"ME- this one will be a barnburner. Tom Allen is a strong candidate, but the state didn’t have the anti-Pubbie backlash in 2006 to the degree that the rest of New England did, and voters have no particular complaint against Susan Collins."

It was 2006 that kept the rodents from suffering the expected losses. As it was, we got within 1 seat of winning the ME Senate, currently the most GOP body in all of New England. Allen is hoping to be the next Bill Hathaway, but Collins is no Margaret Chase Smith caught with her britches down. Allen may be "too Portland" for the rest of the state.

"KY- a potential problem, but not a certain one. Greg Stumbo’s persecution of Ernie Fletcher appears to be an act of political homicide. But it could turn out to be political murder/suicide, like the Guy Hunt/Jimmy Evans debacle in AL."

McConnell incurred some damage from his being on the wrong side of shamnesty (though it was obvious he was being pressured to carry the water for the WH, which I'm sure privately he was quite unhappy about), but Stumbo needs to be smacked down, and smacked down hard. With Fletcher's likely defeat in Nov, McConnell will once again become the undisputed boss of the KY GOP.

"NM- It looks like the Rodents are taking a pass on this. Pete Domenici has been damaged by the U.S. Attorney imaginary scandal, but not fatally."

Hopefully both he and Heather Wilson will dodge the bullet, but if Stevens goes, Domenici becomes the longest-serving Senator (and Pres Pro Tempore if we regain the majority), and that can become a liability. I wish we could work on building up a farm-team for statewide offices that match up with our federal majority. NM is still an incredibly corrupt rodent state.

"LA- I think we’ll get that one. Treasurer John Kennedy’s party switch indicates he’ll probably run."

If he chickens out, we're going to have a very serious problem.

"SD- Mike Rounds doesn’t want to live in DC. Too bad. Joel Dykstra, the most conservative Pubbie running, is the best choice available. I’m still not 100% convinced that Johnson will be running again."

Dykstra, I seriously doubt will get the funds to run a viable race. In which case, the best we can hope for is Johnson runs and wins again, and the strain ends up killing him and Rounds has himself or a viable Republican appointed. Brutally cold, but Johnson has to know what running this race could do to him. If I were him, I'd pick family over DC.

"DE- only if Mike Castle runs."

Castle will be 70 in 2009. Too old, and WAY too liberal. We have a Governor's race we need to win, too, and although we've come heartbreakingly close, it's been 20 years since we last elected one. The whole damn state needs a big political enema.

"NJ- Anne Evans Estabrook is a wealthy Christine Whitman type. Ugh, but I’m willing to bite the bullet. She will have her own money to spend, which means the GOP can focus their resources elsewhere."

We know how that will turn out, don't we ? Why not run Steve Lonegan ? It's not like we have anything to lose.

"IA- Steve King and Commie Tommy Harkin have been sniping over illegal aliens and amnesty. It looks like King hasn’t ruled anything out."

If King plays his cards right, this could be the potential upset of the cycle. But he needs to remember all the political corpses of up and coming Republicans that Harkin destroyed. After what will be 34 years in DC come Jan '09, that should be wielded against him.

"AR- the GOP nominee will probably be Chuck Banks, a former U.S. Attorney who lost a House race by a wide margin in 1982. Interestingly, Mark Pryor could get a serious primary challenge from the Lt. Gov. I’m not exactly sure why."

That's just sad and downright pathetic. AR ought to be trending hard towards the GOP, but has fallen back, and our standings there are as bad as they were in the '70s. Huckabee wants to go to DC with that silly Presidential run, so he has no excuse not to challenge Pryor. I have no idea why the new Lt Governor wants to run against Pryor. Hopefully if Halter runs a vicious primary and depletes Pryor of campaign $$, this could be a replay of what caused Pryor to win in '02 (when Hutchinson had his funds depleted by a nasty primary), but this time with Pryor playing the role of Tim Hutchinson.

IL, RI, MI, WV- not happening.

No excuse for any of those, either. Levin and Rockefeller are tired '70s relics that need to go. We've got statewide officeholders that could challenge them (and since Ireland is leaving in WV, she has nothing to lose -- same with Terri Lynn Land, who won reelection handily last November as MI Sec of State). We really should get a non-Combiner to challenge Durbin in IL.

My Senate ratings

NH- Lean Dem . Since Kerrey and Warner appear to moving toward Senate runs, then Shaheen can’t be far behind. The Rodents are good at recruiting candidates this cycle.

CO - Tossup

NE - Lean GOP even with a Bruning vs Kerrey match. Bruning has got to be an aggressive campaigner. I see the Senate matchup as a replay of Lisa M vs Tom Knowles in 2004.

ME - Lean GOP. The liberal bloggers are actively going after Susan Collins. I wish we had as much vigor.

AK - Lean GOP even with Ted Stevens. The liberal bloggers are not taking this race seriously. One Daily Kos poster said AK is more GOP than MT.

MN - Tossup. Al Franken is raising plenty of money. Plus, Coleman’s approval ratings are in the high 40s. Also, Hillary has a 10+ lead over Rudy and Fred. The party that claims MN’s 10 electoral votes will also claim the Senate seat. Ditto for OR.

OR - Tossup.

It is frustrating. Its like the same idiots that ran the IL GOP are now running the national parties.

Gun control will work in Northern Virginia - but no where else.

My first thought as well. I would hope the outgoing senator would also cut a commercial endorsing Gilmore.

The Commonwealth’s rural areas are almost 100% Conservative though.

Same as with my state. Trouble for us is, most of the population doesn't live in rural areas. In a winner-take-all format, capturing vast tracts of sparsely populated ground isn't going to win you the state's electoral votes.

True enough. It’s why we ended up with Webb instead of Allen.