Posted on 08/28/2007 10:10:28 AM PDT by Hydroshock
There's another guy on this site yelling about the sky falling in specific areas and what to do and not do and when backed into the corner he cuts and runs.
I’m curious about this statistic and how it might be composed. Certainly if individual homes actually go down in price that’s part of it. But there’s also the composition of the total sales, being loaded with more expensive large homes, or more inexpensive smaller homes.
Surely both trends are at play at one time or another.
The price of a more inexpensive house could still be rising, and if more of them are selling than the big jumbo houses, then the average price is going to fall.
But in any case this sort of correction seems to be timely and due for the market. Seems perfectly healthy to me.
Now I do know some areas in San Diego where people started at 1.2 and have dropped to 899,000. Those are people in trouble who really have to buy for whatever reason.
Ok... so why not make everyone pay for their own education? For a student graduating in 2004, the average cost for their education through HS was $89,695 at public schools in the US.
Financed at a measely 3% over the remainder of their lifespan would cost that person $2978.61 per year.
A $100k house here would come with $717 per year in school district property taxes.
In other words, yes, those without children foot some of the bill for others, just like others footed the bill for them at one point. But if you wanted to charge people just for their usage of the system, then they should logically be responsible for paying their own way (or their parents could pay).... but that cost would be higher to them than the way things are structured already...
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
For the moment but it starts at the bottom and works its way up. The high end has much more discretion when to sell however life events such as job changes, divorces, and deaths will eventually force the high end supply up and prices down.
I’m not an expert on the high end market, but it is keeping the averegae price high for sold homes in CA.
MIXED MARKET PERFORMANCE ACROSS PRICE RANGES
Sales activity in the California housing market continued to slump as it entered into what is traditionally the busiest time of year. Seasonally adjusted, annualized sales of existing detached homes fell 22.7 percent year-to-year to 350,980 units in July, compared to 453,980 units the same month a year ago. Sales were last below this level in July 1995 when sales fell to 342,630. Sales have averaged 399,280 units since the start of the year, down 20.1 percent on a year-to-date basis, but sales have dipped below 400,000 in the past four months. Weakness in sales continues to be driven by tighter underwriting standards since the start of the year, low affordability, and the adverse psychological impact of news regarding foreclosures and the sub-prime situation.
The statewide median price dropped by 1.4 percent to $586,030 in July from $594,280 in June. The median price increased 3.2 percent year-to-year from the median of $567,860 a year ago. While the median price at the state level continued to increase on a year-to-year basis, price movements at the regional level were varied across markets. At the regional/county level, year-to-year price changes ranged from a low of 15.2 percent decline to a high of 6.9 percent gain. The month-to-month changes ranged from a decrease of 19.7 percent to an increase of 0.7 percent. Across the state, regional median prices averaged 5.8 percent below their peak prices of the last two years, with regions showing declines against the current record high ranging from 0.7 percent to 12.3 percent.
The recent series of year-to-year increases in the statewide median price have been at odds with the trend at the regional level, where median prices have generally registered one or more year-to-year decreases. This has to do with the change in the mix of homes sold. When sales are grouped by price range, it becomes apparent that the lower and middle segments of the market have been harder hit than the higher end of the market, both in terms of sales and price changes. When sales from January through July of this year are compared with the same period in 2006, sales of homes below $500,000 declined 24.3 percent, and sales of homes between $500,000 and $750,000 fell 26.4 percent, while sales of homes above $750,000 declined by just 5.4 percent.
Because sales above $750,000 have shown a much smaller decrease than sales below $750,000, they accounted for a larger share of total sales, increasing from 23.6 percent of all sales from January through July of 2006 to 28.1 percent of total sales for the same time period in 2007. By contrast, sales of homes below $750,000 decreased from 76.4 percent of total sales in the market last year to 71.9 percent this year. Meanwhile, prices of homes sold below $750,000 fell by 1.9 percent since the beginning of the year, while prices of those above that threshold increased by 2.2 percent. Together with the change in the mix of total sales, the relative stronger performance at the high end of the market has pulled the statewide median price up, despite decreases in the other segments of the market.
I don’t disagee with your earlier comment. I just don’t have the expertise to judge your prediction.
Should read: "...shows no evidence of a HOUSING market recovery anytime soon."
THE GDP numbers, released today, Thursday Aug. 30, 2007, show the economy growing at a 4-percent rate, higher and stronger than normal and much higher than anticipated.
I am convinced these people obsessed with sub-prime mortgages are intent on beating negativity into the stock market, which in all other sectors is doing quite nicely, thank you very much.
Besides, on the radio I continue to hear Ditech (and multiple other lender) ads offering home equity and/or first time mortgates.
I also continue to see numberous first AND second mortgage ads on TV, including CNBC, which is obviously obsessed with driving this market down so as to help their Democratic buddies.
Note: CNBC has REFUSED to run those ads asking Americans to support our current mission in Iraq. (ABC ?? and several other liberal networks also refused, despite the fact they have previously accepted numerous public service ads pushing liberal causes.
Back to point: the subprime market is a small percentage of a small percentage of the entire economy.
Yes, this constant negative drum beating is finally taking its toll, but the economy bears HAVE to be demoralized today with the FOUR-PERCENT GDP growth rate.
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