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How to Play the Market Sell-Off
YAHOO FINANCE ^ | 08/01/2007 | Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D.

Posted on 08/06/2007 12:51:02 PM PDT by SirLinksalot

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1 posted on 08/06/2007 12:51:11 PM PDT by SirLinksalot
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To: SirLinksalot

Oddly, today’s market was lead by mortgage companies, brokers, and home builders. Tech and military and oil companies tanked. I just don’t understand it right now.


2 posted on 08/06/2007 12:54:54 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Always Right

short oil etfs...consumer less $$$, China less demand for oil...


3 posted on 08/06/2007 12:56:56 PM PDT by dakine
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To: SirLinksalot

Market up 286 today. Just going up and down to find a plateau and will move up from there.


4 posted on 08/06/2007 1:19:22 PM PDT by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: SirLinksalot
It will be several months before we find out how hedge funds faired

This guy has a PhD and can't spell "fared". Oh, well...I guess his strength is economics.

I agree with him on that.

5 posted on 08/06/2007 1:23:03 PM PDT by what's up
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To: SirLinksalot
What Should Investors Do?

Emotion is a contrarian indicator.

If it feels good, don't do it. If it feels bad...load up.

6 posted on 08/06/2007 1:23:10 PM PDT by Snardius
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To: Always Right
Oddly, today’s market was lead by mortgage companies, brokers, and home builders

Not that odd.

They just had a large correction last week. Today is recovery.

7 posted on 08/06/2007 1:25:30 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Always Right

You are attempting to apply logic to the market????

Market is long term investment, don’t attempt to apply logic to it.


8 posted on 08/06/2007 1:26:44 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SirLinksalot

I am waiting several months and buying some great foreclosed homes in the winter of 2008 and renting them out. Real Estate going to still be the best investment over stock returns over the next decade in my humble opinion.


9 posted on 08/06/2007 1:34:01 PM PDT by quant5
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To: SirLinksalot

How to play the market sell-off...

whoops!

How to play a bull market...

Whoops!

How to play a...

etc., etc., etc.


10 posted on 08/06/2007 1:36:48 PM PDT by SlowBoat407 (There's more than one way to burn a book. - Ray Bradbury)
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To: what's up
This guy has a PhD and can't spell "fared".

You think they have advanced spelling courses as part of the PhD program?

11 posted on 08/06/2007 1:49:03 PM PDT by Doe Eyes
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To: Always Right

Oil was down $6 from last week and gasoline down 10 cents today. Everybody shifted into financials, which had declined considerably last week.


12 posted on 08/06/2007 1:52:16 PM PDT by RightWhale (It's Brecht's donkey, not mine)
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To: Always Right

Oil was down $6 from last week and gasoline down 10 cents today. Everybody shifted into financials, which had declined considerably last week.


13 posted on 08/06/2007 1:52:53 PM PDT by RightWhale (It's Brecht's donkey, not mine)
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To: Doe Eyes; what's up

“You think they have advanced spelling courses as part of the PhD program?”

Them as gets PhDs shoulda lernt howta rite good bye thn.


14 posted on 08/06/2007 1:53:03 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: dakine

China is growing 10-20% per year. What force of nature allows them to use less oil. Inquiring minds want to know....


15 posted on 08/06/2007 1:58:55 PM PDT by Kokotele
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To: what's up

His strength definitely IS in economics. Both his books are excellent long-term studies of the financial markets.


16 posted on 08/06/2007 2:01:59 PM PDT by Choose Ye This Day (Ask not what you can expect from life; ask what life expects from you. -- Viktor Frankl)
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To: SirLinksalot
Thanks for posting this. Siegal has an army of dozens of students who do vast amounts of research on the stock market. When Siegal makes a prediction it usually is based on historical behavior of the markets. History repeats.

Study his book "Stocks for the Long Run".

17 posted on 08/06/2007 2:08:36 PM PDT by groanup (Limited government is the answer. What's the question?)
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To: dakine
“short oil etfs...consumer less $$$, China less demand for oil...”

Between the lead paint and contaminated food scares, I would be more concerned about selling off my China stocks than my US stocks. If Americans quit buying Chinese goods, their economy will collapse around them (they have a much more significant building bubble than even we have at the moment). They assume a massive increase in exports every year, but what if their imports were flat because people were afraid to buy Chinese or the American economy were to really slump (by which I mean a real recession, not this “miserable” 3% growth with the “outrageously high” 4.6% unemployment)? I think international markets have more to fear from a Chinese collapse than an American recession (even if the recession causes the collapse). If you wonder what a Chinese collapse would look like, look back at the collapse of the economies of the "Asisan Tigers" in the 1990s. The resulting fall in oil prices as Chinese demand abates, however, would be very good news for us.

The author of the cited article is right about valuations. The earnings of export-oriented companies and corporations with significant operations overseas (not in China) are destined to grow even more in the coming months, as the weak dollar makes US exports more attractive to Europe and Asia and favorable exchange rates make overseas earnings more significant on multinational balance sheets. Look at Boeing as an example: not only did they choose the right strategy in relation to design of the 787, but the weak dollar has allowed them to undersell Airbus significantly. I think it is time to buy, not sell.

You might sell your stock in large home-builders. They’re going to be hurting for a while (but I might buy in 6 months when they are cheap, as I see no sign we will ever control immigration significantly enough to lessen the demand for new housing).

By the way, my stock market advise is worth exactly what you paid for it.

18 posted on 08/06/2007 2:12:07 PM PDT by Law is not justice but process
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To: Kokotele
China is growing 10-20% per year. What force of nature allows them to use less oil. Inquiring minds want to know....

Just a guess, but...

Non existent enviro regulations, refineries out the ying-yang, and sweetheart deals from Iran and Venezuela.

19 posted on 08/06/2007 2:29:00 PM PDT by AFreeBird (Will NOT vote for Rudy. <--- notice the period)
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To: Kokotele

P.S. that doesn’t address the issue of less oil since their appetite for it is growing. But it does explain how the higher prices are not affecting them to the extent that it does us.


20 posted on 08/06/2007 2:38:01 PM PDT by AFreeBird (Will NOT vote for Rudy. <--- notice the period)
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