Posted on 04/30/2007 8:02:52 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Thought you would find that shocking! I posted it for its shock value! ;-)
NAAAAAH! ;-)
Yes. This isn’t an election for PTO chair. You may defer to a friend on who gets the larger piece of pizza, but you don’t forgo being the President of the United States just because a friend who has no chance of winning and who already ran once is running again.
“Deferring to friendship” is what candidates do when they know they can’t win and want a good excuse.
Some politician years ago said, “If you want a friend in Washington, go buy a dog.” Friendship or not, when the biggest brass ring of all is up for grabs, people will go for it. McCain cannot, IMHO, win either the nomination or the General Election. He is simply hated by too many who should be part of his automatic base - conservatives (and, in the interest of full disclosure, I’m one of them). His past stances on guns and on the 1st Amendment (McCain-Feingold) are horrid for anyone who respects/reveres the Constitution, and his “maverick” image (really that of an attention-hungry person) requires him to continually dis Bush and other Republicans. Lately, he’s pissed off the moderates who supported him by coming out strongly in favor of the Iraq War and prosecuting it aggressively (here I agree with him). In short, he has too many enemies to win, and that’s where Thompson comes in.
Fred has none of the baggage that McCain does, with the exception of having supported McCain-Feingold...which he has stated that he now views that as a mistake. Show me the pol who has never changed his mind, and I’ll show you someone who is utterly unelectable. He does have other baggage, like no executive experience - but so do McCain, Hillary and Obama, and they are all either #1 or #2 in the polls for their party (Obama I simply cannot understand, but that’s another matter). Fred is universally liked, and that helps, as does the fact that he’s very recognized and very well spoken.
I don’t think that McCain will drop out until he starts coming in a distant 3rd or 4th consistently in polls. By that time his money will dry up, so it’ll be a foregone conclusion.
IMHO, once Fred declares, Newt, Brownback, Huckabee and Hunter will have all of their money (to the limited extent they have it) dry up, and 90% of their supporters will probably go to Fred. Those folks, together with Fred’s 12% or so in current polls, plus current lukewarm/convenience McCain and Guiliani supporters will come over, giving Fred on the order of 20%-25% and immediately putting him in the #2 slot. Then will come the money, more people will get to know and like him, and the juggernaut will be launched.
I think Rudy’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. As has be demonstrated here on FR, many support him simply because he’s not Hillary. That may be good enough to win the nomination, but it will not carry him through the general election.
Too bad they don't vote (in large numbers).
Thanks for your thoughts. You stated it very well.
I’m concerned about his health and his drive. He has a very commanding voice and demeanor. I wish him well.
areafiftyone
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