Minority government looms in Quebec

CBC News ^ | March 25, 2007 | CBC News/Canadian Press

[GiveEmDubya]

Hey, long time no ping! Thought this might be of interest to your Canada ping list.

Should be very interesting returns tomorrow night.

[GiveEmDubya]

Ping for tomorrow's nailbiter

[Republic_of_Secession.]

I am in Quebec so will be voting in this election tomorrow.

[GiveEmDubya]

Since you're there, let me ask: got any predictions for the outcome?

[fanfan]

Thanks for the post Dubya.

Canada ping.

Please send me a FReepmail to get on or off this Canada ping list.

[GMMAC]

IF Quebec ends up with a (likely Liberal) minority government tonight, it will be because efforts to both crush separatism & move the province rightward have worked - at least in the short run - a little too well with all of the Quebec City area seats now held by the federal Conservatives plus a few more falling to the arguably more right-of-center Action Démocratique.

It should also be remembered that current Quebec Liberal Premier Jean Charest & Action Démocratique's Mario Dumont are both classic red-Tories (e.g. RINO's) in the mold of their common mentor Brian Mulrony and would, thus & other than for reasons of personal ego, make for likely coalition partners with André Boisclair & the PQ virtually unable to work productively in tandem with either.

While I wouldn't want to bet the proverbial farm on tonight's outcome, to me, Quebec's historic love of majority governments & well known 'tribal' voting for perceived 'winners' dictates a very narrow Charest majority.
While it's increasing trend away from separatism & still, beneath the surface, 'Catholic' social conservatism leads me to guess voters in the secrecy of balloting enclosures are going to much more convincingly reject openly gay, one-time coke head André Boisclair & his Party than they've previously publicly indicated to pollsters.

Still, for authentic conservatives, the longer Maurice Duplessis is dead, the better he looks, eh?

[GiveEmDubya]

Then my next question is, if the federalists win tonight with the Tories polling 40% nationally, is Harper going to call the election soon or will tonight's results not have much to do with it?

[GMMAC]

The Quebec vote has lots to with it & most likely yes but, Harper's way too cagey to "call" an election which the public doesn't want and will instead select an appropriate, politically wise, hill for his government to die on at the seeming hands of the Opposition.

Accordingly, several 'election trip wires' have been set in the form of Legislation which it's highly unlikely to support with most scheduled to come before Parliament within the next 2-6 weeks.

"Canada's de facto Karl Rove" will then be able to ... snicker ... cry all the way to the ballot box with his government having been defeated over something along the lines of one of the CPC's proposed 'tough on violent crime' laws by the self-evidently bleeding-hearted & power mad Opposition Parties.

Plus if this turns out to be the exact scenario & with our relatively short - roughly 7 week - campaigns, should some especially appalling violent incident occur generating widespread public outrage part-way through ... hello, MASSIVE majority!

[GMMAC]

Early returns coming in: CBC live link

Too soon to tell but, 3-way race with PQ running 3rd!
Arguably the best possible outcome ... if it holds.

PING!

[GiveEmDubya]

The ADQ is in front an hour in. Whod've thunk it?

[Reform Canada]

adq 48
lib 41
pq 36

Popular vote is currently almost an even 3 way split. This could be a great day for Canadian Conservatives.

[GiveEmDubya]

The online video feed is repeating the same 30 seconds, so I have to listen to radio...meh.

ANYWAY, if things stay more or less the same, it's a HUGE blow for Quebec separatism.

[GiveEmDubya]

ADQ elected in 18, so they're guaranteed to at least go way up from 2003 numbers.

[Reform Canada]

This will change the whole political dynamics of Canada. For the last forty years the liberals have use the separtists in Quebec as a wedge to divide and conquer Canada. After tonight the federal Liberals will lose their greatest weapon.

[GiveEmDubya]

I agree. I'd also expect a federal election to happen sometime in the near future.

ADQ 46
Lib 45
PQ 34

PQ in 3rd in seats and votes. Very disappointing result so far for them.

[GiveEmDubya]

And BTW Charest is still trailing in Sherbrooke. This could be a watershed moment in Quebec politics.

[GiveEmDubya]

The PLQ pulls ahead, but the ADQ is still in good position so far to be the official opposition.

[Reform Canada]

ADQ 31.46%
Lib 32.08%
PQ 29.18%

Charest in still losing his riding.

[GiveEmDubya]

Charest in still losing his riding.

The gap just grew to about 300 now.

No matter what happens, the ADQ has done an amazing job tonight.