War Clouds Gather Over the Golan

Forward ^ | Fri. Mar 09, 2007 | Martin Van Creveld

[SJackson]

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For those unfamiliar with Van Crevald, he's a voice worth listening to, the only foreign author on most US military reading lists, though in the past not popular here due to his opinion that Israel should withdraw to and defent the 1967 borders.

[edpc]

Russian President Vladimir Putin forgave Damascus three quarters of its debt; the rest, it seems, has now been paid by Iran.

I doubt it. They aren't even paying for their reactor.

[snarks_when_bored]

Syria attacks Israel; Israel (with support from the United States) kicks the crap out of Syria; in all of the confusion, lots of Hizballah and Hamas guys find themselves pretty dead; Iran makes one loud noise too many and ends up with its enriched uranium lying under many tons of rubble; ...

There's no end of good possible outcomes here...

[SmithL]

Just out of curiosity, how many chemical warheads do you think will hit Israel before Damascus evaporates?

[Freeport]

Exactly one.

[omega4412]

Just out of curiosity, how many chemical warheads do you think will hit Israel before Damascus evaporates?

Assuming an Israeli prime minister with guts, just long enough for him or her to go on TV and broadcast "Never again will Jews be gassed. I have ordered..."

[Cicero]

Whoever is paying for it, there's no doubt that Putin is back in the business of arming terrorist states.

Olmert could not have done worse than to conduct a war against Lebanon that he had no intention of winning. It polarized the situation while gaining nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if France and the Euros aren't involved as well.

[Tolik]

Martin van Creveld is a well respected military historian with his books taught everywhere including US Military academies. Nevertheless reading once in a while his contemporary observations (not just this posted article), I don't see him offering anything but gloom and doom and deep pessimism. What he is saying is practically anything you might want to do is hopeless. I've also seen his articles been happily cited by Israel enemies. Is his pessimism a product of his superior wisdom or a bad bowl movement? I can't share his anti-any-action point of view.

[VaBthang4]

"Instead, some incident will be generated and used as an excuse for opening rocket fire on the Golan Heights and the Galilee. Once that happens, Hezbollah will most likely be induced to join in. The United Nations forces in Lebanon will, as usual, prove to be a broken reed. Should the Israelis respond by sending in their heavy armor, the Syrians will stay on the defensive, relying on their newly acquired anti-tank missiles to break the assault. Should the Israelis send in their air force, the Syrian anti-aircraft missile batteries will be waiting for them. To deter the Israelis from escalating the struggle and smashing Syria’s infrastructure, as they did in Lebanon, the Syrians will rely on their missiles. The overall goal will be to draw out the conflict and inflict casualties, civilian as well as military, until Jerusalem finally throws in the towel."

I was following this dude for a minute but he really does not comprehend land, sea or air warfare.

The notion that Syria is preparing to pick a fight with Israel and rely on SA & SS missiles to [I guess] wear down the Israelis is laughable.

Any attack from Syria would force the Israelis to invade Syria, overwhelm the launch sites and send F-15 & F-16 hunter killer groups out to find the scuds [if they do not already have an outstanding idea]. It would no longer be Israeli forces sitting in the defense. They would be on offensive operations and now have an excuse to completely wipe Hezbollah out...considering their only escape route would be Syria...they'd have nowhere to run.

Iran might scream bloody murder but we'd check them easily enough...and the Sunnis in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi might feign rage, book a conference room at the UN and allow their populaces to burn painted cloths and pummell stuffed dolls in their streets...but I do not see them militarily bailing the shiites [of Syria] out.

The writer tries to paint a scary scenario...unfortunately, some of us know better.

Yeah, the Israelis botched the fight with Hezbollah...that is a far cry from not being able to conduct offensive operations against Syria [or anyone else for that matter].

[sauropod]

important

[Carry_Okie]

Isaiah 17:1

[GrandEagle]

Israel (with support from the United States)
You forget, we now have the antisemitic, surrender party in charge.

[edsheppa]

If Assad is seeing Iraq as similar, he won't want war - just look what happened to Saddam Hussein.

[snarks_when_bored]

Israel (with support from the United States)
You forget, we now have the antisemitic, surrender party in charge.

If Syria attacks Israel, not even the Surrender-crats will have the temerity to suggest that we not help our Israeli friends (should they need our help).

[GrandEagle]

I sure hope you are correct! I just can't get the image of them practicing for surrender on election night.

[snarks_when_bored]

(laughing!) "Don't shoot! We give up!"

[redgolum]

Syria might not wait till October. Just depends on how Congress reacts to any saber rattling.

[Little Ray]

Actually, the only things that the Syrians can depend on are politicians like Olmert and America's own treasonous State Department.
If the Israelis elect a politician with guts, Syria would be a greasy spot shortly after the fighing started.

[OldCorps]

A very accurate analysis of the Mideast situation. Best I have read in a long time.