Posted on 03/05/2007 9:16:23 AM PST by pissant
And it was a windy day.
All I can say is this the perfect example of your inability to perceive and/or comprehend the simplest of situations and actions..and why your conclusions cannot be trusted.
Above this testimony you will find the exhibit referenced as to what the attorney is not only referring to and contantly pointing at but when he questions the witness. The way the questions are worded and answered also confirms this. That you cannot see, understand or comprehend demonstrates how jaded you have become about ANY evidence presented in that court.
Take the blinders off for a second, the sunshine is liberating.
I give up.
(when he questions the witness.) Strike and replace;
...also the confirmation from the witness.
You are too funny!
You write all this nonsense, then post #203, apparently denying a most obvious fact:
that Vasquez was travelling closely behind Juarez on the way to the ditch.
Sunshine is indeed good medicine! It seems to be a bit overcast in San Diego.
I didn't confirm or deny anything, I'm just trying to wrap up loose ends and not open any more cans so I can vacate this time waster and move on to more satisfying pursuits.
Yep, it is a waste of time posting to Bob what he challenged everyone to do. He refuses to admit(save one time) any problems with the prosecution witnesses and story.
The windy day reference was to the fact that winds will blow the dust away so as to allow a closer following than a non windy day. I also pointed out the time required to traverse 4200 feet at 30 mph, 95 seconds. That must be a consideration on any times between the vehicles at the ditch.
Simple math from the data given provides sanity checked info. For instance the ditch. Its top is 15 ft across. There is a 4 ft wide waterway at the bottom of its 11 ft height. That means that the minimum slope angle is 45 degrees if the stream is on one side. But that also means that the side it is on has a 90 degree angle. No one can jump 11 feet to get over the non 45 degree side.(15 - 4 = 11, 11/11 = 1 which is the tangent of 45 degrees) As you move the 4 foot waterway towards the center, the ninety degree angle gets smaller and the 45 degree angle gets larger. The optimum position for the stream is right in the middle giving a 5.5 foot spacing from both edges(5.5 + 5.5 + 4 = 15). In that case the angle is 63 degrees on both sides. You can't climb 63 degrees with your hands raised unless you have prehensile toes. You can start to lunge from a 63 degree slope.
An important aspect of the testimony is the position and speed of the vehicles in the scenario. They give a fairly decent range of timing up until they reach the dirt portion of the road. At that point the separation of the vehicles is not known since they cannot see each other. Nonetheless, from the known navigation points and starting positions and approximate speeds, sane approximations can be assumed.
First the separation between Vasquez and Juarez was larger than that between Ramos and Davila, and Ramos and Juarez. Prior to the dirt road this difference was about 6 car lengths. That would be around 100 feet. That equates to just over one second at 60mph or close to 3 seconds at 30mph. When the cars hit the dirt road dust is thrown up and obscures things for everyone except Davila. He continues on at a speed slower than 60 mph but faster than the maximum safe speed that the following vehicles would be achieving. I have assumed 30 mph for the other vehicles. This is justified by the timing derived from the testimony. Davila jumps out of the van, sees Compean, raises his hands, then jumps into the ditch. Ramos arrives to see Davila jump into the ditch, but does not see Davila with his hands raised. That would seem to indicate a timing of certainly less than 10 seconds. In 10 seconds a vehicle will cover 440 feet when travelling at 30 mph. This is a reasonable assumption falling to the extreme side of safety. Assuming then that Vasquez is still farther from Juarez than Ramos is from the other two involved in the chase, I used 600 feet as a reasonable distance falling on the extreme side of safety.(IOW it is likely that the distance is smaller and the speed is slower so they will compensate for each other -- 20 mph is probably way too slow). Using the values of 600ft and 30 mph, we can estimate that ~14 seconds separates Vasquez and Juarez.
Now timing for the running distances can be estimated by using sane values for running speeds. We know the distances involved fairly precisely so that timing can be calculated. First what do we use for the estimated all out sprint speeds of the individuals. It is not important to get the exact differences between the individuals, since no one can outrun a bullet and we know the possible distances involved between the relevant parties. World class runners can run the 100 yd/m dash in around 10 seconds. If we assume that the average individual can sprint that distance in twice the time, we get a speed of 15 fps. If we assume 3 times the time that would be 10 fps. These values equate to 10mph and 7mph. Using these values we can divide the scenario into time segments.
From the Rio Grande to the levee rd, the timing is ~15 seconds. This brings up the problem I have with the measurements from the levee road to the ditch. The measurement given is 73 feet. Another measurement is 43 feet to somewhere involving the levee. I assumed that the 43 feet was from the base of the levee to the edge of the ditch. That leaves 30 feet at 24 degrees for the slope. That is reasonable since there is testimony that the levee road is around 10 feet above the ditch and the calculation places the road 12 feet above. If the slope were 43 feet the levee calculates to 19 feet high. So I assume 30 feet.
The timing to cross the distance from the ditch to the levee road is 5 seconds. The road is crossed in 1 second. So to run from the ditch to the Rio Grande would take, 15 + 5 + 1, or 21 seconds. The distance is 230 + 15 + 73 or 318 feet about a football field or 100 yards. Yep, that is 15 fps. So using these values, let us see what we can determine. Davila testifies he is halfway into the vega when the firing begins. That places him ~15 seconds away from the ditch when firing begins. If he is slower than that (eg 10fps) it will be greater than 15 seconds(somewhere around 20 seconds). We already calculated how far we estimate Vasquez to be behind Juarez. It is around 14 seconds. What that means is that when Juarez arrives Davila is starting to run from the ditch. That is clearly impossible. We know that Davila is not a world class runner and slowing him down exacerbates the problem, we must judge that Vasquez is going slower and may be farther than 600 feet behind Juarez. Going 25 mph and covering 600 feet gives us around 16 seconds separation. That only gives Juarez 2 seconds to exit his truck, and do everything else he does before Vasques arrives. I need to add at this point, that the timing is referenced to the beginning of the shoot which places Davila in the middle of the vega by testimony. That leaves pure distance as the measure which produces the timing. I am comparing the timing of the situations from a known point. The arrival of Juarez. That is the zero point. The yardstick I have, is the arrival time of Vasquez. They both hear the shots. That is a common point for the two individuals. Events that occur during Juarez placement at the scene can be used to analyze the events using the timing yardsticks. Clearly, Davila starting his run from the ditch until the first shot is fired falls within the yardstick of Juarez arrival at the scene and Vasquez arriving at the scene. It must fully lie within the calculated yardstick of the vehicle separation. That at the moment has been elongated to 16 seconds. It still does not leave enough time for Juarez to do what he has testified to. So we must adjust the rulers. I have stated why we cannot adjust the Davila ruler, it won't help. We must adjust the vehicle ruler within the parameters that testimony and reasonableness dictate. If we accept 25 mph with a 700 foot separation between Vasquez and Juarez we get 20 seconds to use as a ruler. That gives us 5 seconds for Juarez to exit his vehicle, fall into the ditch, see the interplay between Compean and Davila, and climb out of the ditch to hear the shots. If we add the length of the shot burst and then the magazine exchange followed by another two shots, he must lose some of the 5 seconds. Clearly something is wrong with his testimony. It is not reasonable to change the estimations involving the wehicles much more due to the testimony given by Mendoza. He places Vasquez at most 6 vehicles apart from Juarez. That would be less than 100 feet. I expect this distance to increase, but not more than 7 times. Both Vasquez and Juarez would have experienced very similar conditions during their traverse of the dirt road.
In any case, it appears that Juarez is a liar. But let us assume that he is telling the truth about the sequence from the lip of the ditch. Davila is 15 seconds away from the ditch when the first shots are fired. Juarez places Compean at the top of the levee when he begins to shoot. We'll even give Bob J the benefit and say Compean begins to shoot at the top of the levee on the north side. That is 5 seconds away from the ditch. That means that Compean took 10 seconds to arise, and escape the ditch after Davila left the ditch. That would be then a measure for the time it took Ramos to escape the ditch. Ramos was not visible to Juarez during this whole time. Davila testified he saw two agents pointing their pistols at him. Ramos was there on the north side of the ditch, so it is very clear that he was in the ditch when Davila began his run. According to Juarez, he sees Compean rise and chase Davila and he never sees Ramos. Using Davila's testimony, Ramos and Compean are in the middle of the vega, applying the best circumstances for the prosecutions case I place Ramos at the drag road just where the vega starts when Davila is at the edge of the river. If you move Davila back 7 seconds to where the shooting starts, namely the middle of the vega, you must move Ramos back 7 seconds from his position. That was at the drag road. The drag road is 8 seconds from the ditch so that would place Ramos up on the ground where he would be seen by Juarez at the beginning of the shoot and for at least 5 more seconds. For every second I place Ramos farther into the vega, his position at the beginning of the shoot north of the levee moves towards the Rio Grande making him more and more visible until his position is moved up over the levee and down on the south slope. The limiting case would be if Ramos was at Davila's position, where Davila was at the beginning of the shooting. Moving Ramos back 7 seconds from that position would place him at the drag line on the south side. That is clearly impossible, because Compean would be behind and above him shooting from the top of the levee. Therefore the most likely position of Ramos when he shoots would be at the drag line. Commenting on the most forward position of Ramos, the one I just eliminated, that position would still place Ramos 7 seconds from Davila. Davila testified he fell into the river, well that certainly would be within 15 feet of the river. I find it impossible to accept that Davila would consider that he could not make it into the river before Ramos and Compean could cross those 100 feet separating them(according to Davila's testimony)
The conclusion to be drawn is that the prosecution's version of the event is not feasible and Juarez did not see Compean shooting. I will continue later with more analysis, but the spreadsheet data I used follows.
| Location | Distance | Split time | Cum time | ||||
| 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||
| Ditch | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 15 | <-Runner | start of north levee slope | 43 | 2.87 | 2.87 | ||
| 36.67 | <-Vehicle | levee North top | 73 | 2.00 | 4.87 | ||
| levee South top | 88 | 1.00 | 5.87 | ||||
| drag road/start of vega | 118 | 2.00 | 7.87 | ||||
| mid of vega | 218 | 6.67 | 14.53 | ||||
| Rio Grande | 318 | 6.67 | 21.20 | ||||
| speed mph | speed Fps | Vehicle separation | Time diff | ||||
| 15 | 22.00 | 900 | 24.54 | ||||
| 20 | 29.33 | 800 | 21.82 | ||||
| 25 | 36.67 | 700 | 19.09 | ||||
| 30 | 44.00 | 600 | 16.36 | ||||
| 35 | 51.33 | 500 | 13.64 | ||||
| 40 | 58.67 | 400 | 10.91 | ||||
| 45 | 66.00 | 300 | 8.18 | ||||
| 50 | 73.33 | 200 | 5.45 | ||||
| 55 | 80.67 | 100 | 2.73 | ||||
| 60 | 88.00 | 0 | 0.00 | ||||
| Speed Fps | Speed MPH | 100 Yd time | |||||
| 40 | 27.27 | 7.5 | |||||
| 35 | 23.86 | 8.57 | |||||
| 30 | 20.45 | 10.00 | |||||
| 25 | 17.05 | 12.00 | |||||
| 20 | 13.64 | 15.00 | |||||
| 15 | 10.23 | 20.00 | |||||
| 10 | 6.82 | 30.00 | |||||
| 5 | 3.41 | 60.00 | |||||
I don't know how many people are still reading this thread but if anyone wants to soberly debate the facts of the case from a position of inquisitiveness, I'm all game. But I cannot keep discussing this with people who every time I make an important point, even if it is an opinion, I am greeted with "they're all lying".
I don't have anything against R&C and have stated several times I don't want to see them in jail. But something here might have seriously gone wrong and it won't be fixed if we begin from a standpoint that all BPA are choirboys and any shoot as long as it is against a mexican, is good.
People lie. Juarez testified that he lied. Analysis of the data shows he is still lying. It is beyond dispute that Davila ran from the ditch to a point on the vega. That can be measured. It is beyond dispute that sprinting as fast as you can takes a certain amount of time. It is almost certain that Davila is not a world class sprinter. Therefore, the time calculated using 15fps is very reasonable for a typically fast person sprinting at around 10MPH. Juarez was present from the time Davila left the ditch until he reached the point he testified to when the shooting began. This sets a time frame. This time frame must fit inside of the time frame that Juarez appeared at the scene and Vasquez (the very next person to arrive at the scene and he also heard the shots) arrived at the scene. Those parameters set the rational limits of the vehicle separation between Juarez and Vasquez along with the speed that Vasquez travelled. Drive down a dirt road and tell me how much dust a vehicle kicks up at 20 MPH.
Juarez did not see Compean shooting.
First the separation between Vasquez and Juarez was larger than that between Ramos and Davila, and Ramos and Juarez. Prior to the dirt road this difference was about 6 car lengths. That would be around 100 feet. That equates to just over one second at 60mph or close to 3 seconds at 30mph. When the cars hit the dirt road dust is thrown up and obscures things for everyone except Davila. He continues on at a speed slower than 60 mph but faster than the maximum safe speed that the following vehicles would be achieving. I have assumed 30 mph for the other vehicles. This is justified by the timing derived from the testimony. Davila jumps out of the van, sees Compean, raises his hands, then jumps into the ditch. Ramos arrives to see Davila jump into the ditch, but does not see Davila with his hands raised. That would seem to indicate a timing of certainly less than 10 seconds. In 10 seconds a vehicle will cover 440 feet when travelling at 30 mph. This is a reasonable assumption falling to the extreme side of safety. Assuming then that Vasquez is still farther from Juarez than Ramos is from the other two involved in the chase, I used 600 feet as a reasonable distance falling on the extreme side of safety.(IOW it is likely that the distance is smaller and the speed is slower so they will compensate for each other -- 20 mph is probably way too slow). Using the values of 600ft and 30 mph, we can estimate that ~14 seconds separates Vasquez and Juarez.
1. Ramos does see Davila exit the van; I think he didn't notice him raise his hands because he was either a) in process of exiting his vehicle or focusing on parking--directly behind Davila, b) Ramos's view was not clear from where he parked, possibly blocked by an open driver's door on the van, or c) Davila didn't raise his hands in any noticeable fashion.
2. In general, your distances sound far too conservative as they approach the ditch on the dirt road. As cars slow, normally the distance between the vehicles narrows yet your assumptions seem to have increased it. I'm with you on the calculations--44 ft / second at 30mph--but I lost you on your assumption of 440 feet and/or 10 seconds.
For general perspective, consider this: The entire length of the dirt road from Wingo RR to the ditch is about 4000 feet (Based on trying to measure from google maps). The 'safe' distance to travel behind a vehicle at 30mph is 3 car lengths (~50 ft) in clear conditions. I can't see Ramos being behind Davila by more than 100 ft. I can't see Juarez being behind Ramos by more than 100-150 ft, (plus, Juarez parked right alongside Davila at the ditch which should have narrowed his gap). My guess is Vasquez was no more than 200 ft behind Juarez.
As a side note, I do believe that Davila exited the van while it was still moving (but not at the speed Compean estimated), maybe reduced to a slow roll. Look at the picture of where that van ended up. Compean says he saw the driver's door open and Davila take 4 or 5 steps to get to the ditch. Ramos says he gets out and jumps right in the ditch. With either testimony, this seems like an action taking no more than 2-3 seconds.
Now timing for the running distances can be estimated by using sane values for running speeds. We know the distances involved fairly precisely so that timing can be calculated. First what do we use for the estimated all out sprint speeds of the individuals. It is not important to get the exact differences between the individuals, since no one can outrun a bullet and we know the possible distances involved between the relevant parties. World class runners can run the 100 yd/m dash in around 10 seconds. If we assume that the average individual can sprint that distance in twice the time, we get a speed of 15 fps. If we assume 3 times the time that would be 10 fps. These values equate to 10mph and 7mph. Using these values we can divide the scenario into time segments.
For comparison purposes, this is from a letter written by Ramos' father-in-law.
During my investigation, I clocked agent Ramos twice to see how long it took him to get from his vehicle to Compean on the opposite side of the levee. The water level in the canal was the same as the day of this incident. The first run took him forty five seconds and the second one took thirty nine seconds.From the Rio Grande to the levee rd, the timing is ~15 seconds. This brings up the problem I have with the measurements from the levee road to the ditch. The measurement given is 73 feet. Another measurement is 43 feet to somewhere involving the levee. I assumed that the 43 feet was from the base of the levee to the edge of the ditch. That leaves 30 feet at 24 degrees for the slope. That is reasonable since there is testimony that the levee road is around 10 feet above the ditch and the calculation places the road 12 feet above. If the slope were 43 feet the levee calculates to 19 feet high. So I assume 30 feet.
I'm not sure if this is going to effect the rest of what I read, but I have a different recollection of the distances, from the testimony. For reference again, here is my prior post about measurements included in the testimony (from Vol 14)
Here is my interpretation: The 73 feet and 43 feet are additive. In other words, Compean's vehicle on top of the levee road was approximately 116 feet from the edge of the ditch (73 feet down the slope of the levee and another 43 feet on flat ground). The measurements in the testimony are a bit tough to follow, but if you look at all the references in Volume 14, I think you will agree. (Use the Adobe search function on the word "feet" and read all the references.) So I believe the slope reference applies to the 10-12 foot height of the levee. (Note also, that measurement is from the Prosecutor who asks Compean if he agrees the slope is "at least a 24-degree slope".) I also believe the 73 feet is the distance travelled by foot on that slope, not distance as the crow flies.Point A: Canal road (van/north side of ditch) Point B: South side of ditch Point C: Bottom of levee road (where lip of the ditch begins) Point D: Top of levee road (where Compean initially standing as OAD arrived) Point E: South side of levee road Distance between points: A:B = 15 feet B:C = 43 feet C:D = 73 feet D:E = 17 feet (corrected from prior post--erroneously posted 7 feet) Slope of north side of levee: 24-degree
I'll keep reading now.
Before I finish reading, I'll offer another side note. I once won a court case against the Police Department (in traffic court) for an "unsafe left hand turn." The officer was travelling toward me from the left, behind the vehicle that I supposedly turned unsafely in front of.
I got to ask the officer questions about his testimony in front of the judge. In trying to make his case, he exaggerated the speeds and relative distances of the vehicles. I was able to prove through simple math (based on the officer's testimony), that the officer (and the car he was following) would have passed through the intersection before I even entered it. Case dismissed.
Your analysis is appreciated.
I guess I missed Ramos stating that he saw Davila exiting the van, but it does not really enter into the calculations involving Juarez. My distances are definitely conservative, I am giving the utmost leeway towards the prosecutions version and it still fails to be coherent. The 440 feet calculation was just a sanity check. It gives a conservative number to the difference between Davila and Ramos.
The timing that the father did was interesting but it involves segments that are not needed to be taken into consideration for this particular calculation. The time from Ramos vehicle to the ditch, from the ditch north end to entering the ditch, and the time Ramos took to cross the ditch and arrive standing at the south edge of the ditch are not used. It would be relevant to take the time that Ramos took from that point to where Compean was. I assume all runners are generally the same speed over this short distance. That total time is 8 seconds from the ditch to the south drag road.
Using my dividers on a printed Google satellite picture, I measure 100 feet from the south lip of the ditch on a straight line following the path of Jess Harris and my dividers fall beyond the levee rd on the south slope. If I measure from the north edge of the levee road to the south lip of the ditch, I get around 75 to 80 feet. That is why I use the numbers 43 and 30. They make sense in every view. However, the 73 foot slope with a 24 degree angle does not compute. That number would make the levee road 30 feet above the top of the ditch. I first used those numbers, but in the testimony the height of the levee road is described as 10 feet. That is nowhere near 30, but it is near 12 which would be the calculated height for a 30 foot slope at 24 degrees. The calculated height for a 43 foot slope at 24 degrees is 19, again too high for an estimation of 10 feet. The Google satellite picture supports the measurements I have given. The distance from the south end of the ditch to the middle of the Rio Grande is 400 feet. If the distance from the ditch to the north end of the levee road is 116 feet, my dividers tell me that the river is over 3 times that distance from the south of the levee road, 348 feet+. Testimony establishes that distance as 230 feet. If the dividers are measuring 73 feet, 3 times the dividers is 219 feet. I think the distance is 73 feet.
Case dismissed.
Good job!
I'm not following this at all. All we know from testimony is that the height was 10-12 feet, the distance by foot (i.e. the hypotenuse of the right triangle) is 73 feet and the slope is no more than 24°. Where are you getting 30 feet?
I believe all of the distances in the testimony are measured on the surface, so we really don't know the width of the levee (as the crow flies). Or, do we?
Still reading...
Ramos - Direct by Ms. Stillinger Volume 12, p.184-185 20 Okay. Mr. Ramos, what do you see when you get out of 21 your vehicle? 22 A. I see the suspect jump out of his van. 23 Q. Okay. And about how far back from him are you when you see 24 that? 25 A. Approximately two to three car lengths, I believe. 1 Q. Okay. You mean you parked two to three car lengths behind 2 him? 3 A. I believe so. 4 Q. Okay. What do you see the suspect do? 5 A. He jumps straight into the canal. 6 Q. Okay. And what do you do? 7 A. I run towards the canal. p.187 1 Q. Okay. Then let me take you back to -- I think you said you 2 saw the suspect go into the ditch. 3 A. Yes. 4 Q. And you ran over there. What -- what happened next? 5 A. Well, he jumped in the ditch, and he started going through 6 the ditch. 7 Q. Okay. Where were you when you -- well, where did you run 8 up to? 9 A. I ran -- 10 Q. You said you ran towards him. What did you do? 11 A. I ran up to the edge of the ditch, the north side of the 12 ditch. 13 Q. Okay. And did you stop there or did you keep going? 14 A. Well, I stopped there. 15 Q. Okay. Where was the suspect when you stopped at the north 16 edge of the ditch? 17 A. By that time, he was in the water -- well, just getting 18 into the water.
I also noticed a new little tidbit. The scuffle on the south side of the levee first happened about 10 feet off the edge of the levee road, going south. (100ft -73 -17 = 10ft)
Vol 14, p. 110 (Gonzalez/Compean) 8 Q. Because this is the levee road, where it says, River 9 road, D, E (indicating)? 10 A. Right. 11 Q. And you're -- I think you just indicated that you 12 him on the south side of the river levee road, point 13 A. Right about there (indicating), yes, sir. 14 Q. Okay. And so from point C to point D is approximately 15 73 feet. Is that correct? 16 A. Yes, sir. 17 Q. And D to E is 17. So you two are running for 100 18 before you catch up to him? 19 A. I believe so, yes. Yes, sir. 20 Q. And you catch up to him, I believe, around this 21 (indicating). Is that correct? 22 A. Yes, sir. 23 Q. All right. And what happens there? 24 A. I -- I grabbed him by the -- the back of his shirt. 25 don't remember if it was -- if it was the collar.
It is hard to follow some of the debates in this thread without a map of the immediate area where the shooting occurred.
I think it was near the end of Jess Harris Road (near the Rio Grande, or Rio Bravo if you are from Mexico)?
Here is my image:
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a72/archangelospumoni/fabens-1.jpg
Note the scale in the lower left corner. I am having trouble imagining shooting distances of 100 yards using this map. Maybe somebody could edit my map to show where they think the witnesses were incorrect or correct?
Note that "Wingo Reserve Road" is not a unique name, but apparently just a name for some class of roads.
Thanks.
Did you miss the other 30ft to for the south slope of the levee? My understanding is that the 230 ft. measurement for the vega began from the bottom of the levee.
If so, it is only a minor difference, increasing your 21 seconds to 24 seconds. And of course, none of these estimates include the original crossing over the ditch and the attempt by Compean to push him back down.
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