HILLARY! Can a chintzed-and-powdered villain win the White House? LEADING INDICATORS SAY 'NO'

3.01.07 | Mia T

[Mia T]

another bump and thx. :)

[Mia T]

While I don't agree with your premise, I don't want to take the chance that I am wrong. Acting on the theory that she's the easiest of the Ds to beat leaves the country with too much exposure: We will not survive another clinton. (We may yet not survive the first.)

[doug from upland]

In the electoral map, I think the Dems now have Ohio. That is the last state she needed. Can you see any states the GOP has a chance to steal back?

[Mia T]

If she's running against Rudy, NJ, PA, CA, NY, CT, RI are gettable, among others....

[doug from upland]

California???? I live here. Have you paid attention to what has happened to my state? Mia, I'd love you to be right about those states, but I think you are being much too optimistic.

[Mia T]

CA, admittedly, is less probable but did you read my essay, above? Note the poll results.

[doug from upland]

The polls will mean nothing. When it comes time to vote, the Dems will come home to Hillary. Even the anti-war group who currently has a big problem with her, will pull the lever for her before they would do it for a Republican.

[Mia T]

 

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excerpt:
Hillary's losing Hollywood
Tinseltown may desert its erstwhile favourite, writes Robert Lusetich in Los Angeles

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03mar07

PERCEPTION in politics, as the truism goes, quickly becomes reality. And Hillary Clinton - who a few short months ago was the darling of the film colony - suddenly has perception problems in Hollywood.

While many Democratic movers and shakers in the film industry felt they owed Clinton their loyalty, there was a gnawing feeling that it would be no simple task to get one of the most polarising political figures of our times back into the White House.

There was also what some called "Clinton fatigue", a malaise that comes from raising money for many years for the Democrats' first couple. "My sense is that everyone knew Hillary would run but no one was convinced she could win," says Carol Olson Coote, who helped raise money in Hollywood for 2004 presidential aspirant Howard Dean.

... [T]he latest Post-ABC poll... show... a hefty swing away from Clinton to Obama among black voters, cutting Clinton's overall lead in half: she now leads Obama 36 to 24 with Al Gore, who may not even run, third with 14 and John Edwards stuck on 12.

Of more concern for Clinton's campaign, her prospects against the likely Republican opponents have grown bleak. Less than a month ago, she was running in a virtual dead heat with the leading Republican, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has yet to declare his candidacy. The Rasmussen and Zogby polls taken last weekend have Giuliani ahead by as much as nine percentage points.

Clinton led John McCain by three percentage points in the USA Today-Gallup poll of mid-February but a fortnight later trails him by eight percentage points in the Zogby poll. Obama trailed Giuliani by nine percentage points in mid-February and now leads him by six in the Zogby poll. Zogby also has Obama ahead of McCain by four points. If all of this were not enough, consider too that none of the leading players for the 2008 presidential election carries Clinton's baggage into the race.

Pollsters place much significance on the favourable-unfavourable ratings and the picture here is bleak for Clintonistas: the Post-ABC News poll has her at 49-48, which means opinions about her are set in stone. For every voter who likes her, one detests her.

Giuliani and Obama both have unfavourable ratings in the mid-20s with sky-high approval ratings.

... "Her support's softened in Hollywood and there's definitely not that sense of inevitability about her being the Democratic presidential nominee any more.... "

... Some Obama supporters have noted that Clinton's fall in the polls coincided with last week's slanging match instigated by Hollywood billionaire David Geffen, a former Clinton confidant who is now backing Obama. Geffen... was scathing in his criticism of the Clintons, questioning Bill Clinton's moral compass and saying he believes the Republicans see Hillary Clinton as the easiest candidate to defeat.

"I don't think that another incredibly polarising figure, no matter how smart she is and no matter how ambitious she is - and god knows, is there anybody more ambitious than Hillary Clinton? - can bring the country together," he told The New York Times. "Everybody in politics lies," he said about the Clintons. "But they do it with such ease, it's troubling."

[Mia T]

I personally know quite a number of liberals who have never voted for her and will never vote for her. They say they would vote third party. They did the same when the husband was running.

Of course, by voting third party, they are placing a de facto vote for Rudy. But they detest her enough to do that....

[doug from upland]

I hope you are right. I agree with Dick Morris that there may be millions of young women, first time voters, who will vote for her. If she didn't run, perhaps a huge percentage of those might not even bother to vote.

[Mia T]

Play the pat caddell 'gangster politics' video in my latest post. He and Novak believe that theory is ridiculous.

But even if it isn't, we can target those women ourselves and fill them in on precisely what abusers of women the clintons are. I have an idea for an email campaign, a way to target them specifically and exponentially.