BBC: New tensions over Iran's nuclear plans ~ Analysis By Paul Reynolds

I think Ahmadinejad thinks he IS number 12. He put 20 mill of his own money into improving "The Well". At the very least, the escort. Playing to the gallery? Hard call. He's cynical enough, but he really seems to believe.

Petraeus won't cross the border, either of them, on his own recognizance. Depending on exactly how you interpret certain Bush statements, he may already have permission, depending on operational necessity. Remember his last billet.

I began running numerical sims for US/Iran warfare in summer 2002. It was clear we were headed to Iraq, and Iran was the next logical step. You can't drive on Tehran with 23 unopposed Iraqi divisions, under Saddam Hussein, on your left flank.

The OIF sims ran in parallel, using 2000 and 2001 Iraqi OOB/TOEs, with variants using Gulf access only, Gulf + Kuwait access, and Gulf+Kuwait+Turkey+ Saudi+Jordan access. I used 6 US divisions, 3 mech, 3 armor, 6 wings, carrier and landbased, and open source, published US capabilities including TLAMs, JSOWs, PAC-3s, and non-networked Aegis specs, which were at least ten years out of date.

Average US attrition ran one brigade when major military operations concluded. The computers were about 2,900 KIA high.

The Iran sims have been updated with 2004 OOB/TOEs, with results remarkably consistent over the five year period, before and after the upgrade. Average US attrition for a full ground op regime change runs right at one US brigade, just like OIF. Not surprising, since Iran and Iraq fought to a draw over 8 long years.

In both datasets, we lost less than a squadron of aircraft. Though variables this time around include Chinese upgrades to Iran's AD net, and Russian + NK upgrades to Iran's SAM, AS and SSM capabilities, counterweighting variables on our side include distribited Aegis networking, and a few other goodies, and I expect attrition rates to closely parallel OIF, assuming we went after the whole nut, not a sure thing by any means.

In the unlikely event of full ground ops, one key element emerges...Iran is set to fight their last war, or was as of mid 2005. I choose not to explore this too deeply in public, but done right, there are exploitable terrain and deployment advantages potentially available. I wouldn't zoom in too tightly with any planning maps, n'est cie pass?

My processors have never been able to close the Gulf to military traffic. Best Iran has done to date is cruiser and/or carrier damage, no total losses. Standards used for Iranian AS capabilities included only Silkworm era variants, but again, Coalition capabilities omitted Aegis and up networking.

AMMV.

It's difficult to model assymetric operations, Iran can and probably will try to close the Strait to takkers. All I have to go on are reflagging ops during the Iran/Iraq war, and the fact that Iranian defense spending has averaged $6 Bill (USD) annually, to our $450.

I expect a spike in oil prices, regardless of outcome. A spike on fears would affect forward markets no more than a week, civilian closure of the Strait, 30 to 90 days.

In addition to terrorism on a global basis, Iran may or may not attack Israel. Big pile-o-curies at Dimona.

If fifth column elements in Iraq risk being overrun, opinion is closely divided as to deployment of Iranian regulars and Pasdaran. Standard response is "....weeeeelllll....."

On paper and digitally, Iran has the muscle to at least attempt a 4-6 div. drive on the Rumayla, Al Wafra, and Ghawar areas, while pushing a 2-3 div. spoiling/blocking force towards Kut. Works everytime in the virtual world. Objective would be to hold long enough to wire wellheads for hostage. Nobody, including me, is willing to call this likely, but smart money always looks at capabilities, not inclinations.

Syria will sit it out, in Iraq at least. Lebanon/Golan? Not so sure. Assad does not strike me as reckless, or as an Iranian patsy. He will honor the mutual defense pact with Iran only so long as Iran has a chance to win and it benefits him. We'd see him coming, a loooooong way, before he crossed the border coming east.

I don't like to make hard predictions concerning war. War is, by definition, chaotic, and that brings in too much randomness to call shots in advance. Probabilities, possibilities, tendencies and trends, yes, predictions, no.

We will see what we will see.

You are on the ping list for this op, as of now. Average volume runs one ping per week, peaks at three pings per day, currently, volume expected to rise if Iran or the US opens. Let me know if you want off, three clicks gets it done.

All for now...

Actual Mileage May Vary.

This might be of interest:

Iran: The Countdown

Nothing gets by these Brits. No wonder they've been a global power for so long.

Thanks for the link.

It raised something left out of earlier discussions here.

C3I targetting?

How high?

How broad?

How deep?

We got enough trucks to haul that much mail?

Nice assesment Jeff. I find no points you stress that seem unsound. With the high level military spending taking place over the past five years, indeed one does not send so many carriers into the gulf unless plans are being put into place to utilize them. We have sufficient numbers of Air Force and Marine Jet fighters and fighter bombers in situ in Iraq, and three carriers along with the contingents of Marines would appear to be overkill just to show a hand of strength over the need to cover the gulf states oil facilities.
Things are being put in place. And Ahmadinejah and his Mullah advisors do not seem to realize we would not go nuclear on them (to create a chaotic state for the 12th Imman to arrive), but to destroy their coastal as well as military complexes and any fighters that might go up to protect their land. Probaby sink all their surface and submarines as well and set them back 40 years.