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Arctic ice faces accelerated meltdown
SpaceDaily ^ | 12/12/2006 | AFP

Posted on 12/12/2006 8:13:39 AM PST by cogitator

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To: LeGrande
I seem to recall predictions of 10 Degree Centigrade increases within 50 years, now I am seeing predictions of .6 to 2 degrees increase in 100 years.

Bad recollection. It was 10 F maximum (6 Centigrade), and even the scientists who generated that estimate took pains to point out that it was the true bound and a couple of basic assumptions had to be modified to get there. According to a story I read recently, the next IPCC report won't change the range of estimates for 2100, but they will indicate there is now greater confidence that a temperature increase in that range will occur. One article (just found, cuz I lahks to check my sahces -- attempting a textual Al Gore accent) indicates near-virtual certainty of a 1.5 C rise by 2100.

There's a prediction for you. Who's going to tell my grandchildren if it was right or not?

You probably have a very good database of predictions.

Not really. I've tried to keep track of the global temperature projections, primarily.

81 posted on 12/12/2006 12:29:21 PM PST by cogitator
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To: jwalsh07
The Antartic is part of the globe cogitator.

Yes, I happen to know that. What I was indicating is that it isn't following in lockstep with what the other 95% of the Earth is doing, climate-wise.

You shouldn't be dishonest when you characterize Inhofes views. He acknowledges that the Earth has been warming since the Little Ice Age which is a good thing both substantively and politically.

Inhofe states clearly that he thinks anthropogenic global warming is a hoax. He's wrong.

82 posted on 12/12/2006 12:31:32 PM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
CO2 is not to blame for the warming, then another "mytery" forcing of the same magnitude has to be found to replace it.

I could just as easily assume all those changes were due from methane gas from cows and match the curve. Or you could put in World Series victories by the Yankees and fit the curve. You could put in thousands of factors that have increased over the years and make the curve match. Computer models don't prove anything.

83 posted on 12/12/2006 12:34:33 PM PST by Always Right
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To: cogitator
It was 10 F maximum (6 Centigrade), and even the scientists who generated that estimate took pains to point out that it was the true bound and a couple of basic assumptions had to be modified to get there.

LOL, right. Those scientists knew the highend number was completely bogus, but yet news story after news story reported the highend numbers as did IPCC reports. They took no pains in clarifying what that number meant. It was a bogus number that assumed that the few negative feedback mechanisms they did consider, were removed.

84 posted on 12/12/2006 12:39:11 PM PST by Always Right
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To: cogitator
Inhofe states clearly that he thinks anthropogenic global warming is a hoax.

Show us a quote in context. The quotes I have seen from Inhofes which talks about a hoax, is referring to catastrophic global warming.

85 posted on 12/12/2006 12:41:45 PM PST by Always Right
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To: Always Right
Pure speculation. There is nothing that supports that.

Sigh. Never tell me there is no support for something that I know something about.

What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?

Water Vapour, CO2 and Insolation over the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycles

Feedback Loops in Global Climate Change Point to a Very Hot 21st Century

What Caused Glacial-Interglacial CO2 change? (This is a Powerpoint presentation, so good that I saved it after Google found it for me).

Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume

CO2 Lags, Not Leads (countering a common skeptical argument)

86 posted on 12/12/2006 12:42:56 PM PST by cogitator
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To: Always Right
The IPCC will conclude that clouds will accelerate global warming.

I'll bet you a FR recantation of your statement above that they will not make such a clear prediction with regard to cloud feedback effects. If they do, I will publically state on FR that your statement was accurate and that I was wrong.

Unlike predictions of the global temperature for 2100, in this case we only have to wait until February. Game?

87 posted on 12/12/2006 12:46:01 PM PST by cogitator
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To: Always Right
Kind of convenient that the early industrial age did not contribute to global cooling in the 30's and 40's

Most analyses attribute some of the cooling to sulfur aerosols from the war and post-war industrialization (into the 70s, when the Clean Air Act started to kick in). Remember that the 1930s was a hot decade (Dust Bowl!) and the slight mid-century cooling commenced at the end of the 1930s.

88 posted on 12/12/2006 12:48:22 PM PST by cogitator
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To: Always Right
But how many buy into the catastrophic climate change predictions that appear daily in our newspapers and are posted by you?

I can't quantify an anser to that question. Based on reading a lot of what the various scientists say, I would characterize their position as: many of them don't want to predict catastrophe, but a lot of them are quite concerned about the possibility of it. And there is a general agreement that no action at all increases the likelihood of dangerous climate change.

89 posted on 12/12/2006 12:51:19 PM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator

Got to go. But will look at that stuff later.


90 posted on 12/12/2006 12:55:57 PM PST by Always Right
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To: Always Right
Global Warming: The Worst of All Environmental Scares - remarks by Senator Inhofe

"As chairman of the Committee on Environment and Public Works, I have a profound responsibility, because the decisions of the committee have wide-reaching impacts, influencing the health and security of every American." (in context enough?)

"For these reasons I would like to discuss an important body of scientific research that refutes the anthropogenic theory of catastrophic global warming. I believe this research offers compelling proof that human activities have little impact on climate."

and

"I would submit, furthermore, that not only is there a debate, but the debate is shifting away from those who subscribe to global warming alarmism. After studying the issue over the last several years, I believe that the balance of the evidence offers strong proof that natural variability is the overwhelming factor influencing climate."

Now, it is true that he frequently precedes "global warming" with "catastrophic". But for him to say that there is "compelling proof that human activities have little impact on climate" is a basic denial of the scientific conclusion that human activities have a substantial effect on climate. Correct?

I would also submit that prefacing "global warming" with "catastrophic" gives him a clever politician's way out, for if it ever becomes clear even to him that human activities are having a substantial effect on climate, then he can retreat and say "look, I wasn't talking about global warming, I was only talking about catastrophic global warming". His statements above make it clear that his view is that human activities are a very minor player in the climate game.

91 posted on 12/12/2006 1:18:07 PM PST by cogitator
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To: jwalsh07
And since Greenlands ice sheet is expanding...

Source?

This source claims, on balance, an apparent net loss for Greenland ice:

It is true that both Greenland and Antarctica have gained mass, but only at the high elevations in their interior. This is because of increased snowfall, which even though it may seem counterintuitive, is actually expected under warmer conditions. However, both have been losing ice at the coast at increasing rates in recent years. In Greenland, it is becoming apparent that there is a net loss of ice. In Antarctica, the data are inconclusive, although the most recent results point to a loss. Under continued warming conditions, a net loss of ice is assured and rising sea levels would follow.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/20060706_goremoviefaq.html

According to the NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center), it looks like Greenland probably has a net loss of ice.

92 posted on 12/12/2006 1:53:25 PM PST by secretagent
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To: cogitator
The worrying shrinkage of Arctic sea ice could accelerate dramatically....

and monkeys could fly out of Madonna's, but Garth, that's not polite!

Sorry if the truth hurts Wayne.

93 posted on 12/12/2006 2:06:09 PM PST by higgmeister (In the Shadow of The Big Chicken!)
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To: staytrue

"Global warming due to man made green house gases is a hoax perpetrated by enviromentalists who tried to sell mass transit, smart growth, zero population growth, etc., but the people would not buy it so they are selling "you are all going to die"

Global warming is a fact, but whether man is causing it is in dispute and whether or not it is bad is also in dispute.

The earth has been warmer and colder in the past without any help from man.

Further, if it comes to an ice age or a hot period, a hot period is preferable. That is it will be better to be a few degrees warmer than colder."

Agreed with all except that as the polar caps melt the sea level rises, making trillions of dollars of oceanfront property unlivable. Mankind will still go on of course...


94 posted on 12/12/2006 2:28:16 PM PST by quantfive
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To: cogitator
So anthropogenic global warming is not a hoax

Maybe not, but it is bull methane in a Hurricane.

It's like an Astronaut rocking forward in his seat to make the Shuttle go faster.

It is worse than a hoax, because at least a hoax is intentionally believable.

Anyone that feels that humanity should be concerned with Global Warming might just as well be concerned with the Sun going nova.

Isn't that Tipper calling you, Al?

95 posted on 12/12/2006 2:38:06 PM PST by higgmeister (In the Shadow of The Big Chicken!)
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To: cogitator

If it floods Santa Monica, this could be a good thing.


96 posted on 12/12/2006 2:39:28 PM PST by Redcloak (Speak softly and wear a loud shirt.)
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To: cogitator
The rapid cooling of the earth since World War II is also in accord with the increased air pollution associated with industrialization, and an exploding population.
- Reid Bryson, "Environmental Roulette", 1971

"This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century"
- Peter Gwynne, Newsweek 1976

"This cooling has already killed hundereds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000."
- Lowell Ponte "The Cooling", 1976

If you ask me, it'd be a little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy because of what we would do with it. We ought to be looking for energy sources that are adequate for our needs, but that won't give us the excesses of concentrated energy with which we could do mischief to the earth or to each other.
- Amory Lovins in The Mother Earth - Plowboy Interview, Nov/Dec 1977, p. 22

97 posted on 12/12/2006 2:43:01 PM PST by higgmeister (In the Shadow of The Big Chicken!)
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To: cogitator
...where's my canoe?....and boots. :)
98 posted on 12/12/2006 3:27:10 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (Just b/c your paranoid; Doesn't mean they're NOT out to get you. :^)
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To: cogitator

Ice happens. Then it melts.


99 posted on 12/12/2006 3:29:21 PM PST by ExtremeUnction
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To: skinkinthegrass

Are there no asteroids lurking out there that might strike earth a deathblow, or has that threat been calculated out of existence for the next 76,000 years?


100 posted on 12/12/2006 3:30:05 PM PST by RightWhale (RTRA DLQS GSCW)
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