Climate Change: Frisson*-laden year lies ahead (preview of 4th IPCC report)

Space Daily ^ | 12/07/2006 | AFP

[cogitator]

Saying what the report is going to say two months before it says it is kind of telegraphing the punch, isn't it?

And yes, the article is written in a quite biased fashion, that's obvious.

[cogitator]

** ping **

[sono]

Gorebal Warming?

[excalibur1701]

Are these the same top scientist that claimed we would have record breaking hurricanes this year? /sarc

[ARCADIA]

Thanks for posting.

I have seen the climate change in South Florida during my lifetime. It used to (back in the 60s) get chilly in winter, now it really doesn't.

Here's a an observation: I am seeing different types of birds. When I was little you could cardinals, robins, orioles, and even, a horned owl! (I was terrified). You don't see them anymore.

Recently I saw a flock of green parrots!

[cogitator]

Are these the same top scientist that claimed we would have record breaking hurricanes this year?

Bill Gray, the most noted hurricane prognosticator, has given several reasons why the 2006 season didn't match the initial predictions (the shorter-range predictions got better as they saw the conditions changing). One of the main reasons for the lower frequency in the Atlantic was the formation of El Nino. The western Pacific has not seen any diminishment of hurricane activity -- ask the residents of the Phillipines about that.

[excalibur1701]

>>One of the main reasons for the lower frequency
>>in the Atlantic was the formation of El Nino.

Ahh....so when we don't get whacked by hurricanes, it is because of El Nino, yet, when there is more activity in the Atlantic, global warming is the reason. Sounds logical to me. //sarc

[edsheppa]

Bill Gray ... has given several reasons why the 2006 season didn't match the initial predictions

Any smart person can make up reasons after the fact. Don't you think GW proponents should be held to the ordinary scientific standard of making successful predictions before we pay attention?

[bondjamesbond]

It's not really a circus until the UN Clown Car pulls up...

[VeniVidiVici]

One of the main reasons for the lower frequency in the Atlantic was the formation of El Nino.

Hmm. A known variable they didn't account for. And here I thought climate forecasting was so simple even a caveman could do it!

[Little Pig]

I love all the "could cause..." and "can be..." qualifiers. In other words, "we added a bunch of scary what-ifs to our last prediction, because you ignorant peasants aren't taking us seriously enough. This latest hype, which will be trumpeted by your media loudly (scary always brings the viewers), should force you to beg us to lead you out of the wilderness (and if it doesn't, next time we'll add in even more movie-plot hypotheticals)."

[cogitator]

Ahh....so when we don't get whacked by hurricanes, it is because of El Nino, yet, when there is more activity in the Atlantic, global warming is the reason. Sounds logical to me.

Climate doesn't always obey the rules intuition indicates it should.

[cogitator]

Don't you think GW proponents should be held to the ordinary scientific standard of making successful predictions before we pay attention?

Dr. Gray is not a global warming proponent. But I agree with your statement.

[cogitator]

And here I thought climate forecasting was so simple even a caveman could do it!

If the precursors for El Nino could be reliably identified a year from onset, this would help. Currently the lead time for identifying a developing El Nino is 6-8 months. But most climate models have difficult with intradecadal variability and not as much with interdecadal variability. Intradecadal variability is affected by ocean circulation changes, and other phenomena like the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and that makes it more difficult.

[Just another Joe]

We'll be hit by the asteroid before global warming becomes too much of a problem.

WE'RE DOOOOOOMED!!!

[dearolddad]

Any smart person can make up reasons after the fact. Don't you think GW proponents should be held to the ordinary scientific standard of making successful predictions before we pay attention?

Have any of these so called scientists ever produced temp. recordings for the last 50 years from various locations around the world?

I think that would settle the matter very quickly.

[BJClinton]

If no action is taken on emissions, there is a more than a 75-percent chance that global temperatures will rise by between two and three degrees Celsius (3.6-5.4 F) over the next half century, an increase that would slash global economic output by three percent

42.5% of statistics are made up on the spot.

[cogitator]

Have any of these so called scientists ever produced temp. recordings for the last 50 years from various locations around the world?

Yes.

Some station records go back to 1850.

An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network Temperature Database

[edsheppa]

You're off base. Direct temperature records are available and they have been examined. Global temperatures did increase, albeit not uniformly throughout the period, in the last century. That is not the issue. The question is to what extent this increase is due to human activity and, if it's significant, what to do about it?

Actually I guess that's only half the question. The other is, why aren't GW Theory proponents being held to a strict scientific standard?

[secretagent]

The long-awaited document comes on the heels of a string of studies in the world's science journals in 2006 that pointed to Greenland's shrivelling icesheet, loss of Antarctic glaciers...

Isn't Antarctica cooling overall?:

While it is clear the there has been warming in the localized region around where the Antarctic Peninsula glaciers are located, it is also clear that the majority of the rest of the continent has been cooling. Just how much has been cooling was also calculated by Doran ... about 2/3rds of the continent outside of the Peninsula has been cooling over the past 35 years or so.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/04/22/the-tip-of-the-iceberg-yet-another-predictable-distortion/

Does the article lie by omission? It leads one to think of Antarctica as warming up, when it appears rather that, in total, Antarctica has cooled over the last 35 years.