EVANS-NOVAK POLITICAL REPORT SPECIAL(Week of November 6, 2006)

Human Events ^ | November 6, 2006 | Robert Novak

[finnman69]

You are really jonesing for a FR cyber ass beating aren't you? All talk.

If I am wrong I will admit it

BUT

you will be the first one I ping with a told you so. Actually, you would be the only one since no one else is being obnoxious like you.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I'll go with Barone over anyone else at this point. He is a walking encyclopedia of past election history. I heard someone say the other day he has so many flow charts they marvel at how he keeps it all straight, but he does.

[TNCMAXQ]

Mike Barone knows practically every precinct in the country. He is quite remarkable. That news about 18 seats is not good, but I guess it could be worse. If the Dems do take control their margin will be so narrow they might not be able to accomplish much. Plus they will have to watch their backs for the entire term because they know their grip on power will be tenuous. With luck they can be thrown out in 2 years, after they govern as far left defeatists.

[MNJohnnie]

There are a number of Freepers who are compiling lists. They are heartily sick of this habit of the Chicken Little Freepers doing their best to spread Democrat Propaganda and hysteria about the coming Republican disaster every election cycle.

Some Freepers seem to think making wilding nonsensical claims and pronouncements of Doom and Gloom are a substitute for actually doing all the digging and research to actually know something about the issues. They want this bad Freeper habit to end before 2008. I agree with them.

[jveritas]

Did you notice that some people say 15, some people say 16, some 18, some 20, 25, 30, 35, 40? Do you know what does this all mean? It means they have no clue what is going on tomorrow.

I stay with President Bush and Karl Rove predictions that we are going to keep the House and the Senate. These two men have much more accurate data and much larger set of information about what is going on than any other media pollster or pundit. Most importantly they have the record of three national elections victories in a raw including two Presidential election, and three Congressional elections. These elections that the biased media polls, the pundits including many knee jerk ones on our side, predicted that we were going to lose, they were very wrong.

[finnman69]

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/061106/the_weekends_nu.htm#more

pretty good sumamry by Barone today. Does not include final number predictions however.

[Arizona Carolyn]

I still think we will take the house by a thread... Barone is remarkable and it looks to me like he is getting a little excited about the turn toward the GOP... unlike his compadres the Beltway Boys and Bill Kristol who insist we will lose the senate and the house.

[jveritas]

With all due respect Mike Barone does not have access to many data that the Republican leaders have on how the elections is going on. No doubt that he is one of the best but he can be off by only 4 seats out of 435 Congress seat and we keep the House, he does not have to off that much. We will keep the House and the Senate, President Bush and Karl Rove said so, we should believe them, they have the much more accurate information and data but more importantly they have the record of many election victories against all the wrong predictions of the media and the pundits.

[Arizona Carolyn]

Barone has an amazing mind.

[Torie]

Barone implied on Fox News that Novak's number might be a bit low - which it is.

[Son House]

Magnificent! Even more reason to meet at the polls early, President Bush and Karl Rove, I like them guys.

[finnman69]

Actually, some pollsters have been accurate the last few elections, and I have been following their polls.

Battleground Tarrance, Pew, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon

[jveritas]

You have been enslaved by the polls. None of those guys that you mentioned got it correct in each election, they may get correct in one election but not in every election. For example Pew and Rassmusen were close in 2004 but off in 2000 and 2002. Battleground screwed it up in 2004 by predicting that Kerry will win as well as in 2002 and 2000.

[TNCMAXQ]

Barone said which number of Novak's was low? Novak says the Dems pick up 19. Did Barone say they might gain more? I sure hope not. Another poster here said Barone predicted no more than 18.

On a related topic, I just saw the ad here with old Paul Newman shilling for his left wing buddy Ned Lamont. He complained about how 18 years in DC was too much for Joe Lieberman. Time for a change, they say. Interesting since their other liberal hero, Chris Dodd, has been in the Senate 26 years! I haven't heard one Demo say he should retire.

[edsheppa]

Rep. Howard Coble ... stated that if we lose, its because we did it to ourselves.

Absolutely true with only a couple of exceptions. For example, Delay alone is responsible if his seat is lost.

[WHBates]

I hope your right about the President & Rove have much better data, but they have to keep a happy face in the closing hours. It certainly won't change my vote or discourage me from voting but things do look a little grim overall, don't you think?

[finnman69]

FYI

battleground was dead on in 2004

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1274530/posts
WHICH POLLSTER WAS THE MOST ACCURATE? (ranks both national and state pollsters)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/809583/posts
Analysis of 2002 Election Polls Finds Most Were Accurate

[Torie]

Barone implied that 18 was a bit low, which it probably is. But I would be surprised, as I suspect Barone would, if the Dems get more than 25 seats.

[Torie]

Barone said he was at 18 two weeks ago, suggesting that his current number was somewhat different. The odds are not that good it will be that low, but absent some suprises, the outcome is really going to be in the 20-25 range. My number is 21. I have a couple of Pubbies going down, that must don't, and about about 3 or 4 Pubbies surviving, that may well go down, and the CW says they will. The CW on most races is fairly across the board.

[finnman69]

Bottom line if you average the current house races individually, using a RCP 5 most recent poll average, currently you have 187 R seats leaning R or strong, 219 D seats leaning D or strong, leaving 29 toss up seats.

If you split the tossups, it would be a normal 6th year historical 29 seat loss. Final D234-R201.

This is purely playing the average of the 5 most recent polls in each respective district. Momentum could change the final result, but keeping the House will be difficult. GOTV could make a huge difference as many races are razor tight.