Bits and Pieces, Four Days Out

self | 11/3/06 | LS

[LS]

I am accurately looking at what appears to be a loser, and your silly comments reflect badly on him. I suggest you knock it off.

[LS]

Sal, do you know what the polls were predicting for 1994? I know they ALL were badly off in 1996---even though they predicted Clinton's win, they were off from 5-8% in how much he would win by. But I haven't seen any of the 1994 polls reposted from the House races.

[LS]

And I told you earlier that Geraghty at NRO picked Graf as his super-longshot. That's good . . . but not very reassuring if you're a Graf supporter. And 8 points is good, if it could be confirmed anywhere . . . but it's still a losing number. He has to be under 5 to have a chance in a "moderate" AZ district. That isn't Scottsdale.

[LS]

You know, you may be on to something. What if the technology bias slanted the polls toward the older? Still, why should the older necessarily be more Dem? Moreover, they tend to turnout more than the younger.

[LS]

If undecideds break for the incumbents, we'll utterly destroy the Dems.

[kcbc2001]

Yes, a lot of people in my age group aren't motivated to vote. However, a lot of us work on campaigns, run for office, and vote - and have never been in the military.

To say that only military personnel under the age of 35 are the only ones who are motivated to vote is just cynical.

Most of the people who I've worked with this campaign cycle are under 30, including my husband-who is running for public office. We are motivated to work for change because our government is failing us at all levels, from the local level to the state to the feds.

[Clintonfatigued]

My predictions (barring anything drastic):

AZ- Jon Kyl over Jim Pederson, 55% to 45%.

CT- Joe Lieberman over Ned Lamont, 52% to 44%.

MD- Michael Steele over Ben Cardin, 51% to 49%.

MI- Debbie Stabenow over Michael Bouchard, 54% to 46%.

MN- Amy Kobluchar over Mark Kennedy, 58% to 42%.

MO- Jim Talent over Claire McCaskill, 51% to 49%.

MT- Conrad Burns over Jon Tester, 51% to 49%.

NV- John Ensign over Jack Carter, 56% to 44%.

NJ- Thomas Kean over Bob Menendez, 51% to 49%.

OH- Sherrod Brown over Mike DeWine, 57% to 43%.

PA- Bob Casey over Rick Santorum, 55% to 45% (conservatives should wear black to mourn the nation's loss of an excellent, gutsy leader).

RI- Sheldon Whitehouse over Lincoln Chafee, 52% to 48%.

TN- Bob Corker over Harold Ford, 54% to 46%.

VA- George Allen over Jim Webb, 51% to 49%.

WA- Maria Cantwell over Mike McGavick, 56% to 44%.

[pray4liberty]

To say that only military personnel under the age of 35 are the only ones who are motivated to vote is just cynical.

Maybe it depends on where you live. Here in good old crony Delaware, the over-35 who work on political campaigns outnumber the under-35 at least 4 to 1. I've volunteered my time on many campaigns and that's what I've eye-witnessed firsthand. Even they admit that they are in the minority, seeing all us grayhairs around them (wink). They are the hope of the future though. They grew up with liberalism all around them and they are disgusted.

One young campaign manager I've worked with even made the comment that galvinizing the younger voter base was a problem, most of them are either too busy with school or work or young children to involve themselves much in politics. The exception to that was the young family, church-going demographic.

[LS]

Bouchard, Kennedy, McGavick much, much closer. DeWine, if he loses, won't lose by much. He's still close. Can't get a read on Chafee.

[ARCADIA]

I would be very surprised if Klein wins ... I am in liberal east Ft. Lauderdale, near Wilton Manors for God's sake, and the streets are covered with Shaw signs. They are everywhere.

BTW, Shaw's staff unsnarled my sister's financial aid while she was in college at UofM. She is beside herself knowing she has to vote against him in order to help the Dems take control of Congress. She still has not made up her mind.

Diana is very liberal but all politics is local.

[Clintonfatigued]

I do hope that you're right. If the election goes well, pollsters are going to have second thoughts about their methodology.

[Intolerant in NJ]

SEVEN THOUSAND VOTES? How freakin big is the district? That's a lot of votes to make up...not sure how many people it contains - it runs north of Philly and contains several fair sized cities - Reading and Pottstown - the TV reporter implied that 7000 was a narrow victory for Gerlach last time, but then she would wouldn't she - I caught part of the debate between Gerlach and Murphy the other day and Gerlach comes off much the better informed and articulate, although this doesn't come through in their TV ads - I think it'll be very close either way......

[Non-Sequitur]

But, that always is the case, and they still lose.

Not always. I've been stuck with Dennis Moore for 8 years now. Sebellius is cruising. And I'm beginning to wonder if Morrison isn't going to clean the floor with Phill Kline. I've talked to two very conservative friends who both voted early. One lives in Dodge City and one in Wichita. Bboth of them voted for Republicans in every office except Attorney General. I knew that Kline wasn't going to attract any support among Democrats or much support among independents. But I'm beginning to wonder if his support among Conservatives is going to be enough, or as strong as he thought.

[Rokke]

"pollsters are going to have second thoughts about their methodology."

I honestly doubt it. They certainly haven't in the past. Polling companies are like weather men. They get a pass for screwing up because they are trying to predict the future. If they're wrong, they just shrug and come up with an endless list of "late breaking developments" that influenced the outcome. Polling is big business and the people writing the check are liberal MSM outlets. The polling companies know who keeps them fed.

[Red Steel]

Avgs Dem primary turnout was 15%, but that doesn't mean much. What was it in PA? That's the key.

Yeah, I know. I wanted to leave the PA turnout out of that post so someone would answer.

It figures it would be you.

[Sal]

I'm sorry, LS, but I don't remember the actual numbers from back then on the House races, just Jennings telling us that R House candidates were going to lose because the contract was scaring all us poor little voters according to polls.

I also remember coming to the conclusion that we could figure about 8% more for a presidential candidate than whatever pollsters were saying.

[GOPsterinMA]

Nice break-down!

Santorum hurts.

My predictions:

House: 219 GOP
Senate: 52 GOP

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[firewalk]

2 more days...
I can't hardly stand it (:

[Sal]

I also remember coming to the conclusion that we could figure about 8% more for a presidential candidate than whatever pollsters were saying.

I should have made it clear that I came to that conclusion in '96 not '94. Thank you for keeping us "up" by reinforcing with facts and great analysis what many of us already think about the phony baloney plastic banana good time rock n roll BS polls.