Posted on 10/31/2006 8:13:19 AM PST by ACU Outreach
In any event, we'll know by tomorrow if Karl Rove gets to keep his title of "Magnificent Bastard." ;-) Whatever else happens, this election is a win-win for us, either short or long-term. If we hold our majorities, the rodents will self-destruct. If they win a majority, they will self-destruct over the next 2 years and we get our majority back in '08 and are nearly guaranteed 4 more years in the WH.
Fwiw, the last Gallup generic poll is the only one I pay attention to the whole year. I'm not a big believer in generic polls in general, except to gauge the House races somewhat. The aggregate average is probably ok to go by, but I'm kinda stuck in my old ways here.
I agree that the prospects for 2008 are brighter if we don't go in to the election as the bums in power. We could get swept which would make for a very hairy two years. I'm gonna go ahead and risk underestimating the Democrats' capacity for self-destruction if they don't win this go-around. They WILL find a way to consider this election a win for themselves.
There's also the matter of a potential SC justice in the next two years, though I believe we'll keep the Senate, at least nominally.
Regarding the generic poll issue and macro seat switch formulas, I am a bit confused as to why that would trump individual CD by CD polls. Aren't the latter a bit more germane and to the point?
However, if we do go by what polling there is then the Dems are headed toward a 40 seat gain on a conservative estimate. I've made that point over and over: The polls are dreadful for the GOP and indicate losses just about everywhere. By example, if we go by the polling NC-08 should be a Lean Dem seat. So, we have to evaluate the polling in the context of other factors, and one of the other factors is the generic polling, which is really just a proxy for turn out (if applied correctly).
OK, we shall see soon. I think there are enough reliable individual CD polls to suggest the lack of a wave beyond the CW. There is also the buzz of the parties themselves, who seem frankly to be in agreement as to the lay of the land, Melman's press spins to the contrary notwithstanding. The CW is the Dems get 20-30 seats, with the higher range more popular than the lower.
Enough rambling! Here goes nothing. If I don't comment on a district it's because I think my reasoning should be self-evident and fairly conventional.
AZ-08: This one never became a contest but I have a lurking suspicion that it'll be closer than expected and than several of the seats rated below it. The district is after all conservative and I for one think it'd actually be very close if Graf's own party officials hadn't stabbed him in the back because they don't want their open borders policy to become even more of an albatross. That being said, I do think AZ-08 has the least chance of all to be close enough for the Pubby to win.
OH-18: I kept the open Ney seat rated well below CW until this last revision. What finally prompted the change was the NRCC's abandonment of Padgett in the final week combined with Ney once again grabbing the headlines on Friday. However, this district is quite conservative and Zack Space is a still a third-tier candidate. It wouldn't surprise me if this one's closer than expected, though the OH GOP is in such dire straits that it might even be a wider margin than predicted.
TX-22: I was sorely tempted to keep this one in first place and in my heart of hearts I know that's where I think it is. But I gave in to the universal downgrading of the seat's vulnerable in the home stretch, even though I still have it in Lean D rather than Toss Up. We shall see. As I said before it all comes down to in the end is a subjective evaluation of the ballot write-in process, and I obviously think that's a much greater problem for the GOP than most do.
NM-01: Wilson has not lead a nonpartisan poll since a Sept 18-20 Survey USA poll while Madrid has led all seven polls taken in Oct/Nov. The message could not be clearer, though I did hold this one back for a long time due to Wilson's rep as a survivor and toward the end due to that devastating Wilson ad of Madrid's debate non-answer. The fact that the ad does not appear to have sunk Madrid's campaign if anything raises my confidence in predicting a 'wave' election with 30+ seats lost by the GOP.
FL-16: In the recent Zogby Poll of TX-22 38% of likely voters had no idea a write-in candidate was running. What relevance does that have here? I have said this before and I'll say it again: Most political junkies overestimate the political engagement of even likely voters. To make the long story short, I think Negron's campaign was too abridged and that Foley's name on the ballot will be too problematic in a district that just isn't so heavily GOP as widely depicted. The GOP seems to have done as excellent a job as possible making voters aware that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron but I for one question whether a majority would even want to cast a vote for Negron to begin with.
CT-04: What late-stage polling there is has shifted away from Shays, the Iraq situation looks worse by the day, and I think there's no doubt that this 2006 political landscape has shifted further away from the GOP than Shay's 2004 winning margin.
IN-02: Chocola is coming on strong, but I suspect it's too little too late. This is the first race I'm seriously ambivalent about though. I think I might have it overrated.
WI-08: I've explained my reasoning here before but I'll just note that since Oct 18 the Democrat Steven Kagen has given his campaign $870,065. His opponent John Gard had only $236,263 as of 10/18. The NRCC's $432,008 since then didn't make up the difference either, getting outspent by the DCCC's $532,064 in that final stretch.
FL-13: I'm still very conflicted about this one, as I've explained before, but I am certainly within the CW now, if nothing else.
IN-09: One two point Survey USA lead at 46% to 44% after trailing in every poll taken all year long doesn't convince me that Sodrel has pulled through, but it does make me a lot more ambivalent than I would've been otherwise.
CT-02: The buzz of a Simmons resurrection perplexes me about as much as the similar buzz with regard to Gerlach in PA-06. All signs point to those races pretty much headed where CW a couple years ago thought they would end up, and in CT-02 that storyline ends with a slim Simmons loss. As I see it, Simmons has simply not fallen apart as so many other incumbents once rated below him did, but that doesn't mean he's saved his seat (as I actually thought he would for a long time).
IL-06: I am very ambivalent about my call here, not least because I called for the incumbent Bean to lose in the neighboring IL-08 district. Wouldn't that be a curious reversal? Anyhow, I think IL-06 is the most pure Toss Up and has been written about so much that I won't bother rehashing it all. The decisive factor for me was the national landscape. If it's a jump ball then I say the arrow favors the party that's favored on the macro level, and that's the Dems this year.
KY-03: In a 'normal' year I think Northup is still ever-so-slightly favored to pull through on GOTV but then again I'm not predicting at typical election, so I think this is the first seat to fall to a wave, just like Ken Mehlman and Tom Reynolds said as well, and the polls certainly indicate that's exactly what will happen.
AZ-05: In a reverse of my IN-09 comment above, I'm not persuaded by a single 2 point lead for Mitchell after a year of polling behind, by double digits in late September according to the same poll. That being said, this seat has obviously charged into contention and the late Mo seems to be with Mitchell so I'm very ambivalent over my call here. In a 'normal' year, again, I think the entrenched Hayworth would hold Mitchell to the 48% ceiling indicated by the latest SUSA, but again I don't think this is a 'normal' year.
WY-AL: I'm quite concerned that I may be severely underrating this one. The last poll found Trauner surging into the lead after Cubin attacked the cripple, though she had enough of a lead beforehand to come out ahead in the overall poll. But if the final two days are accurate and what we should go by, then Cubin is certainly headed for defeat.
NY-26: Part of me thinks this one's overrated (because Reynolds clearly has an edge again) and part of me thinks this one's underrated (because the edge seems slim and quite plausibly within the limits of the NY GOP's apparent doom).
PA-08: Again, part of me thinks this one's overrated (because Fitzpatrick is clearly the superior candidate) and part of me thinks this one's underrated (it's a heavily targetted Kerry district, nuff said).
NY-25: I'm a bit surprised that both Torie and Sam are predicting Walsh to lose. As I see it, Walsh is very entrenched and the challenger Maffei is all but a novice. The only reason for this seat to flip is because it's a Kerry district in an apparent Dem wave year. So, I'm obviously inclined to tip it to Maffei but then I think a wave is crashing ashore; if one doesn't agree then it's quite unclear to me why he'd think Walsh goes down before any number of seats I have rated higher.
ID-01: When push comes to shove I think enough Republicans will be afraid of Pelosi that this district should hold for the GOP. In other words, I think that for Grant to win Pubbies must stay home, because I don't think it can happen on crossover support. But again, that's exactly what I suspect will happen in the context of a 'wave' but what I'm saying is that if the election is instead 'normal' then it won't and Sali moves on to a scorch-earth primary in '08.
CO-04: I am very ambivalent about this one. Musgrave only took 52% in the much more GOP-favorable 2004 election and although her margin of victory was more secure due to a sizable 3rd Party vote (not unusual in the Centennial State) 8% is still nothing to write home about in this district. Matsunaka took 44% and it's not really all that tough for me to imagine Paccione outdoing him by 4% and Musgrave falling back by 4%. The late polls and party spending suggest that may very well be what's happening, but I'm still not quite sold, obviously.
OK, I'm about halfway through and it's time for a break. To be continued after I eat lunch!!
Keep posting, I'm very curious about your opinions!
Not only did Torie and I predict Walsh falling, so has the optimist on this election night, Robert Novak.
I went with it because a) it's the only GOP-held Kerry CD in NY; b) I just have a feeling the night's not going to be very good for the NY GOP (understatement of the year) and that at least one more CD had to fall besides NY-24 and NY-20, so you might as well choose the most Dem-leaning one; c) Reynolds looks in good shape to me and Kuhl has emerged back from the precipice because of his opponent.
If today's turnout is as high as people claim anecdotally, including in conservative areas, what do you think that means about Democrat chances?
I think that the generic polls almost uniformly find greater enthusiasm among Dem voters, so I think any unexpectedly high turnout makes a Cat 5 Dem tsunami even more likely. If that's not the case, and if instead the vaunted Mehlman-Rove machine is responsible for any elevated turn out, then obviously I think that would be an epic reversal of fortunes for the Dems, and that the GOP might even hold the House.
In either case, political junkies will be chattering about this election a century from now..
CA-11: Oh the agony.. I'm really unsure what to make of Pombo and the CA-11 race. This is perhaps my most vexed rating on any of my lists. The district is hardly a bastion of conservatism, but GWB did win by a solid 54% in a state with very stable CDs. More significantly, Pombo is well to the Left of this district and was thrashed by Pombo 61.3% over 38.7% just two years ago. Granted, Hodes has overcome a similar margin in NH-02, but that's a very different situation, with a Kerry district where the Pubbie has been outspent more than 2 to 1 (including DCCC funds) as opposed to CA-11 where the Pubby has a 3 to 1 spending advantage.
But, that all said, the only nonpartisan poll gave the Dem a 2 point 48% to 46% lead and Pombo does seem to be dealing with some limited ethics controversy. Moreover, the pundit consensus clearly has Pombo on the ropes and I'm always concerned about being so out of step with CW, since Occam's Razor at least suggests I'm more likely to be wrong than for everyone else to be wrong. Oh, I also forgot to mention the buzz that Dem turnout in California will be depressed as Angelides goes down in flames.
To make the long story short, my gut feeling is that this one is much overrated and the Pombo will pull out a solid win, but the counterarguments are forceful enough and widespread enough that I'm rating this one well above where my instinct tells me it should be. Perhaps I've just missed something crucial. It happens!!
WA-08: The final Survey USA poll has this one tied up at 49% after having Reichert over Burner 51% TO 45% just one week before, and that is emblematic of the difficulty in calling the Reichert/Burner contest. My answer is that a series of alternating SUSA and RTS/C-D polls stretching back to August had this race within 3%, with Reichert in a slim lead in three of five polls. On the flip side, Reichert is a much more skilled and nimble politician and has no reason whatsoever to lose barring extraneous circumstances (i.e., a Dem 'wave'). So, I'm content with my Lean GOP rating, even in light of the final SUSA, but I do think that if the tide rolls in Reichert gets lost in surf.
NY-29: I'll just take this opportunity to note that if the Majority Watch polls paint an accurate picture of the New York elections then this one should be up in Lean D and NY-03 should be here instead. Meanwhile, I'm thinking Massa needed to thread the needle to take the most GOP district in the Empire State, and that Massa seems to have let this one slip away despite Kuhl..
MN-06: No district in my view has fallen so far out of prime contention so fast as Kennedy's old seat. Despite the advantages of a favorable macro-environment, a surprisingly close showing against the incumbent in '04, a fully committed DCCC effort, and a solid financial advantage, Wetterling still seems to be over her head. Did the child molester ad ultimately backfire on Wetterling? I think so, but much more importantly I think Bachmann has run a skillful, disciplined, expert campaign, and the district's inherent conservatism is more than enough to finish the job. As should be clear by my rating, I suspect even a Dem 'wave' won't keep her out of the 110th Congress now. I suspect if you asked the average MN-06 centrist what they think of Wetterling they'd say she's a very nice woman with a tragic past who doesn't need to be in a Congress to do her best work.
PA-04: I just don't see it for Altmire and the Dems. The party committees are behaving as if there's something here, but as with KY-02 and KS-02 I don't much buy it. That being said, I think this one goes above many of the seats below if for no reason than that there's far more campaign activity in PA-04 and the district is far less conservative than the majority of the list. That being said, Melissa Hart is also far more entrenched and much more talented than the majority of the list. I may well have this one overrated IMHO.
NY-19: Much the same could be said for Sue Kelly, but the NY GOP's wretched state atop the ballot is what keeps this one so high up on the list.
IL-10: This is one that I suspect may well be underrated. GWB lost this district by 47% to 53% for Kerry and Dan Seals spent about $1.5 million on his campaign. The DCCC jumped in with a last-minute ad buy too, albeit quite modest ($157,776) while the NRCC sat out IL-10. Majority Watch even had Kirk trailing 46% to 48% for Seals, though that's one of their most widely ignored polls.
NE-03: No one really knows. I think I probably have this one underrated actually but I don't think I have it so far underrated that Kleeb might pull out the win. To repeat, this was the 8th most GOP district in the nation in 2004, giving GWB 74.86% of the vote. In reverse that'd be about like a Republican winning Nancy Pelosi's CA-08 seat, GWB's 8th worse district in the nation.* But again, I think Adrian Smith's Club for Growth association might just be enough in a district so heavily dependent on Federal subsidies, and I for one am not too sure who GWB's last minute visit helps or hurts..
*Since the best-performing Dem districts are more Dem than the best-performing GOP districts are GOP, it may be more accurate to compare NE-03 to Eddie Bernice-Johnson's TX-30 district, which was 75.09% Kerry.
KS-02: Is there any there there? I for one don't really think so. Boyda got so much more institutional support in 2004 yet still suffered a blow out that I just don't think the more Dem favorable mood is near enough to make up the difference.
VA-10: If the Webb campaign pulls out a huge turnout in NoVa as some buzz indicates, this one could be an Election Night stunner. I think VA-10 is still a bridge too far though for the Dems. If it were an equally competitive race in Tom Davis' VA-11 then my call would be otherwise, but so what?
CO-05: IMHO, the only thing that'll save this district for the GOP is Pelosi. In short, I think this is the quintessential Republican district in terms of the demographic mix. As miserable as Doug Lamborn may be, and as much as Fawcett's bio sketch fits the district, you would need to collapse way too many parts of the GOP Big Tent all at once for CO-05 to go Dem for a cycle, and it's just not gonna happen this year IMHO.
NJ-07: I may have this one underrated, but my thinking is that if the Jersey environment were bad enough for Ferguson to go down (much less Garrett, who I'm not rating at all for this same reason) then Menendez would be in much better shape. Granted, I think Menendez is pretty well favored enough for reelection, but still not anywhere near the degree to make me think this South Jersey district might flip.
CA-04: I just don't see it and think everyone else is gazing at a mirage, but this one's rated much higher by enough pundits that I'm overrating it here IMHO.
WA-05: Despite considerable buzz I probably still wouldn't rate this one (much less rate it this high) were it not for WY-AL, ID-01, CO-05, NV-02, and NE-03. Lemme explain: McMorris won effortlessly with 60% of the vote in '04 despite being outspent by Barbieri for the open seat contest. Even in a Dem 'wave' scenario why should McMorris lose as an incumbent to an outmatched challenger? Granted, Goldmark is a much more talented candidate than Barbieri was and a marginally better fit for the district on paper.
So what do all those other districts have to do with my rating of WA-05? It seems to me as if something very real has shifted in the Mountain West which, even if none of them actually manage to score the upset, does seem to be giving Democrats a genuine shot to plead their case. That's enough for me to think that the ground might've shifted enough for McMorris to be at real risk, though I seriously doubt so much so that it's become quicksand.
IN-03: The NRCC fears for this one to the very end, having spent another $16,835 on phone banks yesterday. But let's get real - this was a 68.26% Bush district. I think the perceived softness here says more about Hostettler, Chocola, and Sodrel (it says 'they're toast') than it does about the likelihood Souder could lose, which is even slimmer in my view than I'm rating it.
MI-07: If Renier weren't such a weirdo this would be up in the top tier. But she is, and it isn't.
MN-02: I think less than nothing of Colleen Rowley as a candidate but a mid-October SUSA poll did have this one in high single digits and it's 'just' a 54% Bush district, with many such districts competitive this year, but meh, whatever.
FL-09: I am very surprised that a marginally GOP open seat with a well-funded and experienced Dem challenger seems to have become a GOP blowout, or more precisely seems never to have been a real race at all, but that's certainly how it seems to be.
IA-04: Tom Latham's opponent Selden Spencer has spent about $400,000 on a cheap media market in a 50.74% Bush district. I think this one could well be surprisingly close, and Spencer is also a much superior candidate by comparison to David Loebsack. So much so that a stunning upset here could happen even if Jim Leach wins in IA-02. It's a bit of a mystery though to me why Emmanuel did not seek to more aggressively challenge either Leach or Latham, since both districts should now be no less than Toss Ups based just on historical behavior.
NY-13: The big question here is whether this one's getting so much buzz simply because it's so easy for New York reporters to write about it, or whether it's because there's some real chance Fossella might have to wait to give his victory speech. I suspect the former, but I'm not so confident as to exclude this one from my list.
OH-03: Chema has come on very strong in a district that, at 54% Bush in '04, is less GOP than OH-18 and much less than OH-02, at 57% and 64% respectively. That said, Turner has certainly done nothing to lose his grasp on a seat he's carried handily in the past. But if there's a domino effect in Ohio a la Washington or North Carolina in 1994 then OH-03 and OH-14 should be right in the surf. Chema seems to have run a much more adept campaign than Katz against LaTourette however, and he's on TV fwiw. OK, I've written more on this one than it merits...
CO-06: This one probably should not be here at all, but Sabato is listing the seat and Chuck Todd briefly listed it iirc and I just think the scenario of a total GOP wipeout in Colorado would be so stunning that I had to let it in. It was between that and the epic-irony alternative of IL-14, but Winter has actually spent about $700,000 while Laesch is beneath hopeless.
Wow! Here we are then. I'm gonna have so much free time the next few weeks I won't know what to do with myself.. I just want to close out my Election 2006 commentary with a final tribute to Rick Santorum: "The board is set. The pieces are moving. We come to it at last, the great battle of our time ... Ride now, ride for ruin, and the world's ending!"
:)
Very well written and most entertaining. You still 2 to 1 that is is a plus 40 wave? This is your last chance to step back from the edge. :)
Nothing ventured, nothing gained! 2 to 1 odds still sound good to me. My backup forecast is there for the world to see so what's the point in a last minute reversal? If the wave is more modest than I predict then that'll just be grist for the mill of post-election analysis. I'm cool with that!
Sounds good to me. Your last expose is excellently written as well.
Now, it's just about time for the results to come in. Good luck to all.
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