Hold that cork...("Karl Rove may still have the last laugh.")

guardian ^ | October 20, 2006 | Eric Alterman

[ConservativeGreek]

Funny the ultra liberals get it!

[AliVeritas]

Shoot, they're on to us.

[Crawdad]

the great Molly Ivins

That was where I stopped.

[jimfrommaine]

I think everyone here at Free Republic is a week to 10 days ahead of the liberal media. The momentum is on the side of the GOP. And I don't believe any dirty trick for here on out is going to change momentum.

[TommyDale]

"It is about 500 individual elections"

Several of us have been saying this for months. It has little or nothing to do with national polling.

[kellynla]

Be sure to go to the article for excellent links to more information and data.

[bahblahbah]

Why didn't you stop at "Eric Alterman"? Historian Eric Alterman that is.

[MNJohnnie]

About time someone woke up in the National Media to what FReeper like LS have been saying for months. This is not one national election it is hundreds of local elections. They would be wise to withhold popping the corks just yet

[Ditter]

"the great Molly Ivins"

I didn't read any thing past that line either. LOL!

[no dems]

Hmmmm. The libs are getting nervous and are "hedging their bets".

[Crawdad]

I wish I had.

[Mo1]

He's blaming the the Black Caucus and saying they are part of the evil VRWC ????

[Obadiah]

Just found out this morning that Roskam (R-IL6) is now ahead of Duckworth by 4 pts!!

The worm is turning! (if one ever believed the MSM in the first place.)

[JimRed]

"After their stunning loss of both houses of Congress in 1994, the Democrats have averaged over 50% of the vote in congressional races in every year except 2002, yet they have not regained control of the House.

The numbers are skewed by urban 90-10 and 80-20 districts, though there are many more 55-45 and 52-48 districts nationwide. Where they do their polling is a major factor.

[JasonC]

California gets 2 senators, so does Utah. New York gets 2 senators, so does Wyoming.

As for congressional districts, they are drawn by state houses and typically for the advantage of incumbents, by putting all the single party majority areas well within single congressional districts, while areas that regularly split their vote almost evenly are salted around a little in each of those, but not enough to make the seat "swing".

As a result, only 10-15% of house seats are actually competitive for both parties. The rest are locks for the party that has them today, pretty much, unless the underlying electorate changes drastically. Which there is no sign it is doing - the last 3 elections have all been within a couple of percent, the country is about evenly divided, etc.

All that said, right now the Dems are still favored to take the house but not the senate. If the republicans lose seats but barely hold on to the house it will be a minor political miracle. And look for RINOs to cast about for the price they can get for selling their seat by switching parties, if it is too close.

[musicman]

IB4RYMBP !!!!!

(...In Before Rove You Magnificent Bastard Pic)...

[small voice in the wilderness]

It's quiet on that side...way too quiet..are they re-loading or searching their pockets for the cyanide?

[pepsionice]

For the vast number of people throughout the south...these national polls mean absolutely nothing. Its the candidate and their platform at stake. I could care less about some idiot congressman from Florida who who did some stupid stuff. I'm voting for myself and my district.

[Paloma_55]

It is about 500 individual elections"

Even better than that, you can use the national politics to your advantage if you live in a conservative district.

Just mention Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank and the most liberal members of congress who will take control if YOUR guy doesn't get re-elected. This is worth a few percentage points all by itself.

On a slight tangent... is there a pool for how many races will be challenged by the Democrats for "voting irregularities" ???