Posted on 10/14/2006 6:53:35 AM PDT by sitetest
Dear posterchild,
"There will always be a few people on both ends of the bell curve, but I don't expect them to have any impact."
I really hope you're right.
However, it wouldn't be the first time even in recent years that race has turned out to be more of a factor than folks thought it might. I remember when Doug Wilder was elected Governor of Virginia, the last polls showed him winning by a bunch, but he only squeaked in. Others have pointed out that Congressman Jindal failed in his bid for the governorship when the polls indicated that he'd do better.
Here in Maryland, I've seen at least one poll that showed Mr. Steele garnering a lower percentage of white votes than one would normally expect for a Republican candidate.
I'm not inclined to write this off as the delusion of a silly reporter.
sitetest
Steele should distance himself from Ehrlich.
Republicans and conservatives out *here* are not happy with him at -all-.
*If* he loses, I believe it will be because they worry he's a RINO like Ehrlich.
[flame me if you will but it won't change the facts]
I cannot guess how many 'good ol' boys' who came down from the hills for the first time in *years* to vote for Ehrlich in 2002 will stay home this year but I'd wager on a lot of them.
They may not actively vote for O'Malley but they will sit it out.
Point taken about Wilder and Jindal. I however cannot imagine that one can compare one politician with an expected performance based on party affiliation. There are so many positional and personality differences from candidate to candidate and so many twists and turns in a campaign that one cannot compare a current R to a past R or a current D to a past D in a statistically meaningful way.
Sorry, I'm just used to reporters being silly lately:)
Dear Salamander,
Mr. Ehrlich may be a RINO (and he most certainly is), but he is the best we're getting this time around.
I haven't fully made my decision about the gubernatorial race, but the thought of "Gov. O'Malley" is pretty disgusting.
Mr. Steele, however, isn't a RINO.
sitetest
That's always been assumed to be because people didn't want to say they were voting against the black candidate.
Steele and Blackwell will be good tests of that theory.
Seems to me polls frequently have Dems about five % higher than they perform in the election anyway.
This is stupid.
We need Steele.
I consider him our #1 priority.
Dear posterchild,
I understand what you're saying, however, the phenomenon is pretty well-established that ground-breaking non-white candidates often underpoll on election day from expectations, and in the aftermath, the analysis shows that the problem comes down to some white folks not voting for them because of race.
sitetest
Yea, thats why Mass. is about to elect their 10th black govenor.
What, oh you mean their first black govenor but the people of Mass. are so educated and can't be prejudicied.
No quotes from a single person, even anonymous, who actually says they WON'T vote for Steele. Just people worried about OTHER people not doing so.
"Bob" has been selling off state owned conservation land for housing developments under the table.
Green Ridge State Park/WMA is getting almost 7000 houses on it.
He is -seriously- pro-developer.
Like Glendening before him, he hasn't bothered to come out here to the very area that gave him the election until *now*, when re-election is upon him.
He keeps trying ram through the slots [out here, where we sure as hell don't want them] and the race-track in Little Orleans and pushing to "develop" western MD.
We don't -want- to be "developed".
His ads crack me up.
"He balanced the budget without raising taxes".
Yeah, sure, he didn't raise taxes; he created a slew of new/increased "fees".
Wanna know where to find the biggest/most "Ehrlich For Governor" signs in Washington county?
In the yards and parking lots of builders/developers/contractors.
In 2002, we *all* had our "Ehrlich" signs up.
They're not here, now.
The correctional officers and state troopers all threw their support behind them back then.
They've endorsed O'Malley this time around.
Bottom line is that we do NOT want to become the "suburb" of Rockville that he wants us to be.
You can't imagine how high emotions are running out here because of the last 4 year blitz of "development" he wholeheartedly sanctions.
Our rural heaven is being turned into a suburban hell.
"Whatever disagreements you may have with Ehrlich, he's better than O'Malley."
Ah...the "lesser of two evils" argument. eh?
With A Dem I expect evil and corruption.
Hell, we're all used to it after 4 decades.
Having "one of our own" stabbing us is more than we're willing to bear.
The "Deukmejian effect".
Could be a factor in Tennessee as well, going the other way.
Oh, and don't be afraid.
Steele WON the Lt. Governor's race with Erlich. So apparently the GOP was able to get enough of it's voters out to vote for a ticket with an African-American on it.
If anything,this might be some local GOP guys thinking to shame people into voting for Steele to prove they are not racists.
Dear ProudCopperhead,
"This is stupid."
What, precisely is stupid?
"We need Steele."
Is anyone taking exception to that fact?
"I consider him our #1 priority."
That's great! How does that falsify the fact that Mr. Steele may lose votes due to racism?
sitetest
I just drove all over Frederick county and saw Steele signs everywhere. NO Cardin or O'Malley signs anywhere.
What I'm saying is that there may well be more black Demos who won't vote against Steele (especially if it means voting for a Jew, who beat Mfume in the primary) than white Republicans who won't vote for him. There may well be low voter turnout this November. LOL! (Especially with both Erlich and O'Malley saying the voting system is broken).
Democrats who won't vote for a black man....
&&&
Exactly! They would not vote for an R of any color.
I wish to God and Heaven above that it were Steele running against Ehrlich, instead.
That would be a vote I could get my heart into.
Ehrlich keeps bragging on funding "stem cell research".
Is *that* supposed to fire up the conservative base?
Hell no...he's pandering to the death-cult Dems, instead.
I won't vote for him.
Everytime they slam Steele for being "against a woman's right to choose"/"Loving Bush", my affection for him grows.
Dear expatpat,
"What I'm saying is that there may well be more black Demos who won't vote against Steele (especially if it means voting for a Jew, who beat Mfume in the primary) than white Republicans who won't vote for him."
Hope you're right (although, I'm more concerned about good ol' boy Democrats who often vote Republican than I am about actual Republicans)!
sitetest
I was back visiting the Eastern Shore in September, I was born there and my family is all there. I saw tons of Steele and Erlich signs in yards along the roads (and I went plenty of places many miles off Rt. 50) I don't think that this will be as big a factor as the author would like it to be.
As for the western part of the state, I couldn't say.
Dear CharlesWayneCT,
There is some polling data to suggest that the phenomenon may be real.
Personally, I know folks who usually vote Republican who likely won't vote for Mr. Steele. Because of race.
Sad, but true.
I hope that they amount to no more than a small handful.
sitetest
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