Lopez Obrador Attempts to "Oaxacanize" Mexico: Hoping Chaos will Force a New Election (Translation)

Sounds like there will be an armed clash.

I do not expect to see the Venezuelan Army fight amongst itself, though there could be significant divisions within it over what role it should play. Widespread fraud will convince some of them that they should act and the course of that action will be difficult to envision. The real problem will be the population at large. Just because Chavez has mobilized the poorest sections of the country, and especially in and around the capital, doesn't mean that everyone else is just going to sit back and take it when the national election is clearly stolen. That's the clash that's in the offing. One sector of the population arming itself -- perhaps with the support of all or part of the army -- and going after another sector of the population. Mass violence in the streets is coming in my opinion.

The situation in Oaxaca is extremely tense today as everyone awaits the results of the negotiations with the Governmental Secretary.

I don't have time to give an entire translation of the following article on El Universal, but I think I can put up enough excerpts to make its meaning clear.

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Residents of Oaxaca City live through a Night of Terror

In a matter of seconds, all over the city, human rivers went down from the adjoining suburbs to fortify their barricades and to close all access roads to the capital of the state.

5:10 a.m. The people of Oaxaca lived a night of terror starting at midnight yesterday after which in the central quarter of the city they heard shots and there was an intense traffic of taxis and vehicles which crossed the streets which frightened the members of the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca (APPO).

At ll:45 p.m. this Thursday the first shots were heard on Independencia street, only two blocks from the Zocalo central plaza of the city. This obliged APPO to immediately decree a red alert. . . .

. . . in all the suburbs loudspeakers could be heard with which the population sent emergency advisories.

Armed with wooden sticks and pipes, the people signaled the alert, only assisted by the noise of wooden sticks hitting against boats and lightposts.

Ardently aroused, the young, and included among them one young boy, shouted in the darkness: "We're waiting here for you dog!"

Among all the population the version which spread was that the Federal Preventive Police were about to enter the city, something in which they did not succeed.

By means of collective psychosis, the young ran from one side to the other, leaping between enormous public service trailers and trucks which were crossed throughout the Brenamiel suburb to block access to the city.

Around 4:00 a.m., the residents of this city concluded that this was the last attempt of Governor Ulises Ruiz to maintain himself in power, following soon after the failure of the stoppage of public employment that was going to begin this Thursday, in the same way as his failed proposal to summon a return to classes, which only happened in no more than 1,800 plants of the 14,000 which there are in the entire state.

APPO members also concluded that the visit of Ulises Ruiz to Mexico City was a failure, because he was only accompanied by no more than 200 municipal presidents. . . .

. . . They warned that if an armed intervention occurred it would be a "dreadful signal" for all the people of Mexico. . . .
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I am having a hard time getting a grip on what is about to happen. I see all the signals which say things are about to explode and yet I continue to believe that the Mexican federal government is not about to take such action as will precipitate the running of blood in the streets. As a final note, APPO has declared a "total alert" in Oaxaca City.

Not good. So things are heating up.

Are there federal troops in the area?

Next thing you know Obrador will be taking hostages or something equally crazy and stupid. I hope cooler heads than his prevail in this situation.

Thanks as usual.

However, I can't picture the central government simply allowing a coup, something like that could not be isolated to Oaxaca & Oaxaca only.

"Are there federal troops in the area?"

I'm guessing you're asking if the Mexican military is available for use here. While I know nothing of their deployments, I am almost certain that they will not be used against the protestors, unless the latter arm themselves with significant weaponry. The PFP (Policia Federal Preventiva), or Federal Preventive Police, will almost certainly be the force used if it goes that far. And in the above-translated article you will see that APPO believed that the PFP was about to enter the city.

Yeah, we here in Ole Mexico like St. Jacques, If this motion needs a 3rd of a vote, I've had a lot of my stuff pulled by the Administrator, this is NEWS, and we are glad someone has their finger on the pulse. I was in Mexico City today, the radio ads, billboards, lots of propaganda of the government trying to give positive opinions about Mexican being United...I went to the U.S. Embassy today, they are closed, ADMINISTRATIVE MAINTENANCE. Their office hours are 800am to 10:30am. Not bad for taking in $500,000 a day, charging 5,000 Mexicans each $100 MOST of them will be told to go home and forget about ever seeing the land of Bill and W.

US citizens warned against Oaxaca travel

Tuesday, September 26, 2006 (Oaxaca):

The US Embassy in Mexico has renewed a warning to American citizens travelling to Oaxaca, where protesters have camped out for months, burnt buses and fought pitched battles with police.

Just hours after the warning was posted on Sunday, gunmen exchanged fire with leftist protesters outside Oaxaca's Camino Real hotel, injuring two men and forcing dozens of tourists, residents and journalists to run for cover.

On Monday, President Vicente Fox's spokesperson Ruben Aguilar said officials "absolutely promised" that the problem in Oaxaca would be resolved before President Vicente Fox left office on December 1.

About 300 demonstrators armed with machetes, knives and pipes descended on the Camino Real searching for Oaxaca state Governor Ulises Ruiz, whose resignation they demand.

They accuse him of rigging the 2004 election to win office and violently repressing dissent.

Thirty protesters searched room by room for the governor, who later said he had been at a nearby restaurant but never went inside the hotel.

A group of about 40 men armed with sticks and guns then fired at the protesters outside the hotel's front door.

Some protesters drew guns and returned fire, creating panic among people in the street.

Increase in violence

Zenen Bravo, a spokesperson for the Oaxaca People's Assembly, which is coordinating the protests, said one demonstrator was shot in the elbow and another had been beaten with sticks.

Bravo accused the governor of being behind the armed group. Ruiz denied that and condemned the violence.

The US Embassy said American citizens should "consider carefully the risk of travel at this time" due to the recent increase in violence in Oaxaca.

The embassy also said it had received reports of robberies and assaults in the city, which normally has a low crime rate and is popular with tourists for its cobble stoned streets, craft markets and cuisine.

The advisory warned that protesters might try to close the local airport and that travellers should monitor developments.

Teachers protest

Oaxaca teachers went on strike in May to seek higher wages.

Protests occurred a month later when police tried to evict teachers from the city's main plaza. Joined by leftists, anarchists and students, the teachers have since taken over government buildings, as well as radio stations to broadcast calls for revolt.

Police and armed gangs have shot at demonstrators on several occasions, leaving at least two dead.

On Saturday, Ruiz warned the teachers that they would be replaced by substitutes and lose their pay unless they immediately returned to work. (AP)

http://www.ndtv.com/morenews/showmorestory.asp?slug=US+citizens+warned+against+Oaxaca+travel&id=93776

POLL NUMBERS!!! September 29, 2006
Good Morning! Last week's poll numbers from Latin America are here.

Regionwide, El Tiempo polled across several nations. Bachelet was clearly the best liked leader in the region with over 70% supporting her. With 16%, Chavez was seen as the "most important" leader in the region, but those numbers are too divided among many leaders to draw conclusions.

In Nicaragua, GCM has the race Ortega 32, Rizo 27, Montealegre 16, Jarquin 14. I don't believe that one.

In Ecuador, Market has the race Correa 26, Roldos 20, Viteri 11, Noboa 10. Cedatos/Gallup has the race Correa 26, Roldos 18, Noboa 11, Viteri 10. My analysis earlier this week on Ecuador is here. Officially, the Ecuadorian media can no longer publish polls between now and the first round, but there is nothing in Ecuadorian law about foreign or internet media publishing polls.

In Peru, over 75% will vote to reelect Lima Mayor Castaneda. The man is popular. However, another poll done by Catholic University said nearly 40% remain undecided.

In Brazil, Ibope says it's Lula 47, Alckmin 33, Helena 8. Datafolha has it Lula 49, Alckmin 31, Helena 7. Many analysts believe these numbers are a sign Lula will win in the first round because he'll pick up some of the undecided vote. I think it is too close to call. Election is this Sunday.

UPDATE: In Nicaragua, a poll this morning from M+R has the race Ortega 31, Montealegre 26, Rizo 16, Jarquin 16. The Montealegre and Rizo camps are really spinning the polls hard to each appear as the legitimate candidate of the right.

http://bloggingsbyboz.blogspot.com/2006/09/poll-numbers-september-29-2006.html

Okay; a Oaxacan update for you all. Briefly put, the hopeful report I saw late last night on Univision, in which the Mexican federal Governmental Secretary (Segob) Carlos Abascal stated to the press that their negotiations with APPO had led to a successful result has been dashed today. And what is clearly going on is that the national leadership of the PRD is pushing APPO not to accept the terms Abascal and Segob have offered, which were centered around a popular referendum on Ruiz's maintenance in power.

Yesterday afternoon, Abascal informed the press that a solution was near. The news report of this information was not very reassuring because it said that APPO would not be returning to the table today, because it feared that its negotiators might be detained. Here's a short excerpt from this release:

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. . . [Abascal] made known that he has summoned the sectors of the state [of Oaxaca] "for constructing a Pact of Governability, Peace, and Development," Wednesday the 4th of October [at Segob].

He stated that said pact will impel, among other reforms of the state Constitution, a mechanism for recalling the Chief Executive.

This option, valid one time, would be able to address APPO's demand that Governor Ulises Ruiz leaves office. . . .
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The Oaxacan delegation did not give a formal response, but said they feared that the government was about to act against them, asked for guarantees of their safety, and said they wouldn't attend today's meeting.

And now the national leadership of the PRD is stepping in, convening in Oaxaca to discuss what they describe as a "peaceful exit" to the crisis. In my opinion, they are trying to set terms for APPO that are unachieveable, given what is pointed out in the editorial beginning this thread. Here is an excerpt:

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. . . "Any solution must contain the removal of the acting Governor of the state [of Oaxaca]," the Party of the Democratic Revolution indicated, which disapproved the message of the Governmental Secretary, Carlos Abascal Carranza of Friday, in which he put forth that the crisis in Oaxaca "is very near an end." . . .
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And the news coming out of Oaxaca City is not at all encouraging. You may recall that I mentioned above that local businessmen are staging a 48 hour strike of their own, begging the federal government to step in and restore order to the city. Now APPO is threatening to retaliate against them and, if they follow through on this, I predict the federal government will respond. Univision reports that residents of Oaxaca "heard on the radio that [APPO] already has a list noting those businesses who closed so that they can sack them later" according to Javier Cavaria, who heads up a local citizen group seeking an end to the disorder. Is anyone out there surprised that the Left will not tolerate dissent in Oaxaca City?

So everyone; I think we may be looking at an explosion at the end of next week. I am very sad about it, but the Left just cannot be dealt with. I had the impression that Abascal had pretty much negotiated a way out and I noted that APPO had not publicly rejected his offer, apparently intending to return to Oaxaca to discuss it with their leadership. But the PRD will clearly have none of it. Their goal is to set a precedent by which Calderon can be removed from the presidency for a similar situation of ingovernability.

I think we're headed for a real calamity here.