Poll: Schwarzenegger lead over Angelides is expanding

SFC ^ | Sept. 26, 2006 | Lynda Gledhill

[Torie]

There is a Survey USA poll also showing a big lead for Arnold (52-38), including breaking even with the Hispanic vote, getting a third of the black vote, carrying the Asian vote with a substantial plurality (albeit with a high undecided factor), and even breaking even in the Bay area, while carrying LA county handsomely. The one odd thing is that Arnold is doing horribly with young people (gen Y), per the crosstabs. If they are the future in California, it ain't pretty.

[Torie]

I might add that I have seen a lot of polls a lot of places, and the GOP is doing better north of the Mason Dixon line with blacks in most places than the normal partisan baseline. One can speculate why, but it is there.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Interesting. Northern Blacks were, of course, the first to go Democrat during the era of FDR, mostly because of the big-city Democrat political machines. Southern Blacks remained Republican until LBJ and then became radicalized along with their Northern brethren.

It does seem rather surprising that Southern Blacks would not be more approving, as they tend to be a bit more Conservative (even if the radical buffoons they send to Congress don't seem to represent that), although the polarization present may be more pronounced in the South.

We'll see if a break in the dam occurs in the MD Senate race (less so with the OH & PA Govs, since both men are, alas, likely to lose). I mentioned it some time ago, but I believe the highest vote-getter amongst Blacks for major office for the GOP in the past 25 years was Tom Kean, Sr's. reelection for NJ Governor in 1985, where he received somewhere between half and 2/3rds of their vote.

[Torie]

It may be the immigration issue, it may be that the Blacks in the North are increasingly middle class (the less bourgeoisie are heading south, and also heading away from heavy Hispanic areas), it may be that more blacks are getting bored with politics, and have lost interest with the Dem party as an avocation. Frankly I don't have a clue.

[Kuksool]

In deep blue states like CA or NY, white liberals don't need 90% of the black vote to win. Thus, they are free to play golf in their white-only country clubs.

Whereas in the South, the RATS need the black vote to have a fighting chance. As a result, they have to pander excessively the black community.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Whereas in the South, the RATS need the black vote to have a fighting chance. As a result, they have to pander excessively the black community."

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True, but Democrats in the South also need over 35% of the white vote to win statewide and at least 25% of the white vote even in 40% black districts. You don't see white Democrat Congressmen from Georgia proposing reparations for descendants of slaves.