Precision Climate Modeling Is Forecast

Terra Daily ^ | 09/08/2006 | Staff Writers

[cogitator]

Enjoy???

[cogitator]

I thought you would find this particularly interesting.

[cogitator]

** ping **

[edcoil]

Bet these scientist forcasted the shuttle launch today as well.

[cogitator]

Bet these scientist forcasted the shuttle launch today as well.

No, that would be the engineers. (smirk)

[kingu]

They come up with a perfect system to track hurricanes yet? No? Then the usefulness of the system is about as good as flipping a coin..Well, actually, less useful, because if the simulations are for centuries, verification of the data will take a hundred years, making it absolutely useless since we'll be developing better forecast models over that hundred years.

[centurion316]

I recall Steven Schneider and others of his ilk at NCAR say the same thing 30 years ago when they got their brand new CRAY.

Models are only as good as their algorithms and their data. Both continue to get better, but are still woefully insufficient, in my view, to support predictive analyses.

[C210N]

Models and algorithms are always improving and getting much better at proving manmade global warming. In "science", it always helps to have a goal in mind, if that is what you want to prove.

[wbill]

The goal is to provide what scientists call a fully integrated Earth system model that can be simulated every 15 minutes for centuries.

So.....weathermen can be wrong more frequently?

Wonder if this will support the global warming theory.

[FastCoyote]

Actually, I'm a mechanical engineer and I took a bunch of fluid dynamics and what I know is that there are classes of equations that don't result in deterministic solutions. That is, if you tip the initial conditions ever so slightly the result changes drastically. They may have 50 terraflops, and I'm sure its worth a lot of insight, but the reality is that there will still be a huge "political" element to these simulations.

[Issaquahking]

I hate to say it, but they're idiots. Our life span on this planet is a microfraction of a second compared to geologic time line. To think we are so significant they need to think again...



Could we have controlled the weather post 1883 Krakatoa?



Or St. Helens?




Or stopped a Tsunami?




Tell us what time,
and how devastating the next earthquake
will be?



What a bunch of Junk science....I go to the link and on the right side is a list of phoney global warming pukers.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

So will it rain tomorrow or not?

[Da Bilge Troll]

So will it rain tomorrow or not?

Exactly. These "Models" are used for nothing but propaganda. Can they start one 100 years ago and predict the present accurately? I predict not.

[metmom]

Can they start one 100 years ago and predict the present accurately? I predict not.

That would be a good test. Probably they could go back only 20 or 30 years when they have better data to start from and find out how well it works. They still probably won't get tomorrow's weather right anyway.

[cogitator]

So will it rain tomorrow or not?

Yes.

[Wally_Kalbacken]

Kristina Abernathy - call your agent.

[DustyMoment]

Don't hold your breath. There is a LONG way to go before something like this comes to fruition.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

LOL!

[cogitator]

LOL!

I thought you'd get a kick out of that.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

You were right.