Mexican Left Splitting into Pro and Anti-Lopez Obrador Factions in Mexico City (Translation)

La Crónica de Hoy ^ | September 7, 2006 | René Cruz González ( translated by self )

[Reverend Bob]

If this isn't breaking news what is?

[muawiyah]

Whatever big happens in Mexico on any given day is the second-most important thing in North America, and that's reason enough to take every bit of it seriously in FR.

I was having a little bit of trouble figuring this post out until I realized who Cardenas was, and that makes this bit of news enormously important.

Even students of Mexican history sometimes don't have this stuff on the tips of their tongue and it's good to have discussion of the material with people who are on top of it.

In terms of politics this is comparable to Republicans stepping aside so that Lieberman can smack around the far leftwingnut candidate who stole the Connecticut primary.

Or, maybe it's even more important and meaningful than that. More like "W" helping Lieberman dig a grave (politically speaking) for the Algore.

[Kenny Bunk]

The work of Freeper St. Jacques put the site in the forefront of media sources for the events now occurring in Mexico City, which have a direct bearing on our own country.

This information is not available in English from any other source at the moment. It is of vital importance because it is translated directly from a variety of original sources, and while commented upon, is not filtered or subject to biased editorialization.

Single-handedly a freeper has made this site a resource for America, for a time making it more important than the other news services.

It is news. It is a service. That is rare enough in America today to warrant re-consideration as to its place on the site.

[StJacques]

I have an interesting piece of news relative to what I mentioned two days ago would be a major issue to watch in the upcoming weeks; namely, the tension between the determination of the Fox administration to hold the Mexican Independence Day celebrations in the Zocalo capital plaza on the weekend of September 15-16, and by way general information the 16th is Mexico's Independence Day, as they usually do, in spite of the fact that Lopez Obrador's PRD is intending to hold its "Democratic National Convention" in the capital plaza on Sunday the 16th. Fox evidently does not intend to back down.

The following is an excerpt from an article on the Mexico City newspaper El Universal's web site today:

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. . .The Presidency of the Republic reiterated that the [the country] will have its Independence Day celebration on the day of the 15th and on the 16th the military parade, and negated reports suggesting that Vicente Fox Quesada would be going to Dolores Hidalgo, Guanajuato [for the celebrations].

[Presidential spokesman Ruben] Aguilar called on citizens not to reverse themselves in the purchase of pennants and confetti because yes, they will have their Independence Day celebration.

In a press conference spokesman Ruben Aguilar assured everyone that the President "is not going to go" to Dolores Hidalgo and he recalled that it has been 15 days since [Fox made the traditional] shout for Independence there, and on that occasion Vicente Fox indicated that on the 15th he would be in the Zocalo capital plaza in Mexico City.

He put forward that the Governmental Secretariat (Segob) has taken on the task of negotiating with the Head of Government of the Federal District, Alejandro Encinas, so that everything will be ready for these dates.

Therefore, he explained, the negotiation is directly with them and is not by contact with the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). . . .
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As a side note to this issue, there is also a separate article announcing the offer of the Federal District Head of Government Alejandro Encinas, a Lopez Obrador ally who has supported the PRD's shutdown of the central business district by providing them police protection and who has also stated that he will not recognize Calderon as President, to mediate between the federal government and the PRD over the Indpendence Day celebrations. Fox and his administration have not accepted the offer, as the content above makes clear.

Going back to the article from which I translated the above excerpt, there is an additional statement made by Fox's spokesman which is a response to a charge that has been leveled by Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, one of the founders of the PRD, to the effect that Fox supposedly met in secret with the Electoral Tribunal prior to its decision to certify Calderon as the winner of the election to influence the process.

Here's a brief look at that:

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. . .On another theme, regarding the statements of Porfirio Muñoz Ledo suggesting that President Fox had met with the magistrates of the federal Electoral Tribunal to try to influence the process, Aguilar said he had an enormous respect for the man, but in this he showed himself in a surprising way in speaking a lie of such dimensions.

"Absolutely not. Absolutely false. I am surprised at the level of irresponsibility at which a [political] actor like Porfirio Muñoz Ledo can come to," he added.
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Needless to say; I have a very very hard time believing this charge. If it were proven it would be a bombshell, which is what the radicals in the PRD are hoping for obviously. So I'm just going to agree with Fox's spokesman and pronounce my judgement that it's a lie.

So; before I get to the next item, it may now be worthwhile to put all of the aforementioned together. We have already introduced developing splits within the PRD in the opening article of this thread and we now see that they are evidently spreading two very large rumours. One; that the federal government is not going to interfere with their "Democratic National Convention" on the weekend of September 15-16, and two; that the Electoral Tribunal's decision was directly influenced by Fox, a charge which is obviously meant to undercut the legitimacy of their deliberations. I submit to everyone that the degree to which any political party, and here I am really referring to the "radical wing of the PRD," relies upon rumour and falsehood is a good indication of its overall state, which is to say "not good." And there's more news surfacing today which says that the PRD is in chaos.

Now; on the surface, I think I can argue that the following appears to indicate real progress in calming tensions in the Mexican Congress. Evidently the ascension of the Cardenistas (allies of Cardenas) to the leadership positions within the PRD delegations in the national legislature is beginning to turn them towards accommodation with PAN and the PRI. Pay attention everyone; if this holds up, it will represent a marked split with Lopez Obrador and a significant dimunition of his influence.

In the article at: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/373854.html entitled "PRD Deputies Reach First Agreement with PRI and AN" (AN = Acción Nacional, a short form for the PAN party), the details are given of an agreement for the yearly rotation of the "Directive Desk" of the Chamber of Deputies (lower house of the Mexican Congress), along with other posts for the next few years. The agreement was put to a vote of the entire chamber and it passed 450 - 19, with 5 abstentions. I believe there are something like 123 PRD Deputies, 16 from the Labor Party, and 17 from the Convergence Party; just to give you an indication of the overall acceptance of the terms by the PRD and its allies. And a second article entitled "PRD Opens Road to Pacts with PAN and PRI," goes even further in describing a changing mood in the legislature. It still pointed out that the PRD and Labor Party Deputies walked out in protest when the Bando Solemne (Solemn Proclamation) of Felipe Calderon's victory in the presidential race was read before the chamber, but the 17 Deputies from the Convergence Party remained seated.

Well; how was all this received by Lopez Obrador? Not well, given what is reported. In an obvious attempt to spin the story of the agreements reached in the legislature, Lopez Obrador's coalition tried to turn attention back to Fox and Calderon, declaring there was no contact "whatsoever" between them. According to the article treating this subject: "Gerardo Fernández Noroña, spokesman for the PRD, rejected that there has been a turn in the PRD benches [in the Congress] which points to the beginnings of negotiation with the other parties in the Congress." And in a reversal of an earlier public stance, Lopez Obrador has announced that he would like to go to the national legislature, which he was invited to do on the day of Fox's address, but which he declined. The spin on this story, as contained in the article, is that Lopez Obrador put the idea to his advisors in the coalition that he should attend, but he was outvoted and he respected their decision. Yeah, right!

So I think this pretty much brings us up to date.

[againstallhope]

Studying Mexico would be a challenge. Politics there seems to be a hall of mirrors. Someone posting above hopes for a revolution. That's nuts. Mexicans I've spoken with have not had a lot of faith in Cardenas. None in Obrador. Their poor-ish, and trust the PAN.

[BunnySlippers]

USA Today article says that polls in Mexico say that if the election were held today it would be:

54% Calderon
30% Obrador

[StJacques]

I'm guessing USA Today is discussing the Reforma poll which has it 54 - 30 - 12 as a Calderon-Lopez Obrador-Madrazo split. That means Lopez Obrador has only lost 10% of his voter support, while Madrazo has lost over 40% of his, with Calderon winning converts from both camps. That's a unifying process if I ever saw one, though it does indicate that the PRI voters are the ones who really see the need to rally around Calderon.

And 68% of Mexicans oppose the post-election protests.

http://bloggingsbyboz.blogspot.com/2006/09/poll-numbers-september-8-2006.html

Founding Father provided this info and I owe him some commentary on the rest of it. So much to do....

And it's nice to see you again BunnySlippers.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Having returned from Mexico City this afternoon, I have some observations to share:

*A popular joke in Mexico now goes like this: Weeks ago ObraGore was driving along and asked some folks how to get to Los Pinos (Mexico's "White House"). They told him to "take Reforma" [the major roadway]. He abided, most literally...

Meanwhile:

*A view from an insider within Mexico City's government (as shared by a female attorney friend serving within it) is that the protesting Lefties have been HOPING to provoke the Fox Administration (etc.) into a violent crackdown that they could try and work to their advantage in the media and among voters. Thus far it hasn't worked.

*We drove by a couple of those campamentos / tents and they were practically empty. However, there was a tiny handfull (maybe 4 or so) sitting in one remote portion watching a video on a somewhat large screen which had footage of Fidel Castro.

On a different front, I agree that your great posts belong in the news section, not merely the personal blog one. But hopefully we really have crossed the finish line, as you said in a different thread. I asked a few approachable folks who seemed Leftist what they think of the current events and got the following:

*This kind of thing happens every 6 years down here, only this time they decided to let the news out (older security guard who is a nice guy).

to:

*They seem to have stolen the election back in 1988 too. I don't really know who to support though; I'm sick of the roadblocks and such (younger taxi driver).

Either way, Saint, I think you've done a terrific job. You deserve our gratitude.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Perhaps in the future an electoral reform that will emerge is a second round when there's not an absolute majority. I'm not in favor of that though, as it could increase pressure on Mexico to shed its 3+ party system (which I think the USA needs).

[Shuttle Shucker]

What a seemingly clever way to boost Cardenas' son, the governor of Michoacan, and thereby hopefully weaken Mexico City Mayor Ebrard's desired stronghold on the upcoming PRD presidential nomination. And this could also make it tougher for ObraGore to become the candidate by default half a decade from now like he did this time around, since Ebrard MIGHT step aside for AMLO in exchange for having backed Ebrard like ObraGore reportedly did. Cardenas Batel hopefully would not step aside though, at least not if Cuauhtemoc's upcoming taste of some power and influence sparks them into wanting more (which we can count on happening, ha ha!). Fox isn't quite as politically numbskulled as I had thought in the past. Now if only Cardenas Batel can avoid scandals like the one that ruined PRI candidate Montiel a year or so ago.

[StJacques]

Well welcome back from Mexico City and thanks for the first-hand observations.

I need to make my way down there again soon.

[GeronL]

good news. so this will probably go nowhere.... probably

[Shuttle Shucker]

Thanks. Meanwhile, here's an interesting editorial by a Canadian guy who is traditionally sympathetic to the right (and has amazingly survived for more than a year at Leftist Herald):

http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=34522&tabla=articulos

I like how it says that thousands of pro-AMLO voters now feel relieved that he didn't win. One Mexican I spoke with last week referred to him as "Chavez 2".

Meanwhile, hopefully ALL campamentos (tents) will be removed from Reforma (etc.) by Sept. 16th, and not just the one on parade routes.