TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[Moose4]

Here's hoping this thing dies out. We're not on the coast here in Richmond, but even so, people remember the mess that Isabel made three years ago, and Gaston in 2004 put eight feet of water in the bar district along the James. And one recent track has the centerline of the cone coming right over us in 96 hours.

}:-)4

[PogySailor]

I can't believe they left it as a TS. Every frame on the IR loop shows less convection and no rotation. Where the 11:00 position is supposed to be there's nothing but some light blue, maybe even white.

Oh well, I'll catch up with it in the morning.

[NautiNurse]

TS Ernesto expected to move off Cuba coast and over the Florida Straits shortly. The center is currently not well defined. Recently...however...some new cells of deep convection are now developing near the estimated center.

Updated watches and warnings:

the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are extended northward along the Florida West Coast from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Vero Beach southward on the East Coast...from Bonita Beach southward on the West Coast...and for all of the Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Bonita Beach northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Vero Beach to New Smyrna Beach on the Florida East Coast.

On/Off Hurricane Ping list, mash ---> .

[dirtboy]

Based on the color key of that graphic, the forecast for us in the Sandhills of NC is that Ernesto will be at tropical storm strength when he comes through??

Quite frankly, I wouldn't pay any attention to the forecast track that far out at the moment unless you are directly along the coast. If Ernesto does pay you a visit, it will be as a rainmaker.

[PogySailor]

My brother in Va Beach would like some rain at least.

[dirtboy]

The center is currently not well defined. Recently...however...some new cells of deep convection are now developing near the estimated center.

I'm not getting this. The thunderstorms in Kentucky are more vigorous on the infrared than those anywhere near the supposed center of Ernesto.

[CFC__VRWC]

Interesting - they no longer have it regaining hurricane strength when it makes landfall in SC. Looks like a hedge your bets track.

[yield 2 the right]

My post in an earlier thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1691504/posts?page=427#427

[dirtboy]

I don't understand either.

[oceanview]

is this it, it looks like it's over as a serious threat?

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

How True,,Pay Heed to the Warnings, Are the Watch-Words.
In 1900 And To This Day,Some people Will Not Listen.
WE Have Come A Very Long Way And Have Far To Go.

[metmom]

So is it coming or going? Sheesh!

[AnAmericanMother]

Also, the Gulf Stream is farther out from shore at that point - so if it's onshore, it won't be right in the "fat" of the Gulf Stream, and if it's out in the main stream, it won't be right on shore.

My parents live on the GA coast, a good deal closer to JAX than SAV. Last bad one was in 1898, local lore is that the GA coast is a "dead zone" for hurricanes but of course that's not true.

[RDTF]

I saw that convection earlier and posted it

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

They also delayed the arrival here at Charleston by six hours, from 2:00 PM Thursday to 8:00 PM. They're projecting it just makes category one by then.

[dirtboy]

is this it, it looks like it's over as a serious threat?

I posted a map for the Great Labor Day Hurricane earlier in the thread. It was "just" a tropical storm as it entered the Bahamas. Two days later, it was a Cat 5 that killed a lot of people. Any tropical cyclone in good working order can bite you in the rump.

Having said that, until I see a circulation, widespread deep convection near the center and the center over water, Ernesto sleeps tonight (ear worm alert).

[NautiNurse]

Water temps along the FL Keys 87-88º.

Buoy Data

[PleaseNoMore]

Any tropical weather pointed my way has my attention as Hugo then Fran earned my respect for these systems. Now, I know this isn't anything close to Fran in terms of strength, but I'd rather not even get the tropical activity at all.

[dirtboy]

11 pm discussion

Air Force reconnaissance data through 00z showed that the center of Ernesto was still inland. Highest winds from the flight just offshore were 46 kt about 6 hours ago...and more recently 37 kt. Based on these data...Ernesto will be held at minimal tropical storm strength. The reconnaissance data showed that the center was inland...and since that time...Cuban radar and surface observations from Camaguay indicate that the center remains inland. The radar data show a gradual deterioration in the organization of Ernesto...and satellite imagery shows only very limited deep convection with the system. The upper-level low near Andros appears to be advecting dry air into the cyclone...which may account for the anemic convection. This low is forecast to move out and weaken over the next 24 hours...leaving Ernesto under light easterly shear. This would favor gradual intensification after the center clears the coasts...but the upper winds would not seem to favor rapid development. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL guidance...and represents a downward adjustment from the previous package. Although there is still some chance that Ernesto could become a hurricane before reaching Florida...the liklihood of this is diminishing.

The initial motion is 300/10. Ernesto has been moving to the left of the previous forecast...and this requires a slight westward shift of the forecast track. Model guidance continues to aggressively move the mid-level high pressure offshore the southeastern United States to allow Ernesto to turn northwestward. Dropsonde and raob data from 00z indicate that the ridge axis is still at 80-81w...still ahead of the cyclone's longitude. This could mean that some slight westward track adjustments are in the offing.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 21.7n 77.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 23.0n 79.1w 40 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 24.6n 80.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 30/1200z 26.4n 80.9w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 81.0w 45 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 33.0n 80.0w 60 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/0000z 36.5n 78.5w 25 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 03/0000z 39.0n 77.5w 20 kt...extratropical
$$
forecaster Franklin

[twin2]

I'm going to get some rest. I'll be up early to see where we are at. Looks like I'm off to the office tomorrow, at least for the morning.