AMLO Update: Tactical shift emerges from PRD camp

Mexico News ( The Herald Mexico ) ^ | Auugust 17, 2006 | Kelly Arthur Garrett

[Shuttle Shucker]

Regarding: >>>I knew this was a national holiday and that Lopez Obrador was probably trying to "pad his numbers" by scheduling his "convention" for a day when so many would be off work and coming to the capital<<< It reminds me of how fundraising colleges are increasingly scheduling class reunions for when graduation takes place (to hide the lack of clearly adult numbers that would be apparent weeks before), while high schools are scheduling reunions for big football homecoming weekends (instead of during the Spring as we've previously seen). Institutions I've attended at both levels are now doing that, while trying to get more money. As far as AMLO and the military go, hopefully a confrontation can't be staged that could empower AMLO's folks as martyrs (Tlatelolco). Regarding Watergate though, that's tailored for U.S. consumption (even as AMLO built his career out of repelling U.S. influences). After all, I've found that informed Mexicans typically think that the whole Watergate scandal was little more than much adieu about nothing... It would seem that AMLO's presidential candidacy is a flat-liner and I'm kind of baffled as to why someone increased his betting on the guy:

[StJacques]

Yeah, the numbers are clearly falling off.

The whole thing was clearly at a turning point on Tuesday when the PRD and their allies had to sit down and calculate their own response to Monday's desalojo of their protestors from the grounds of the national legislature. AMLO began talking his convention shtick hoping to rile everyone up and, based upon what I have seen since, it appears to me that some of the folks are going home. Even Encinas said yesterday that he expects to see the encampments picked up in a couple of weeks.

We've got to keep our eyes on the actions of the TRIFE this week -- I expect them to announce the results of the recount and complete the first stage of the process wherein they tell everyone the votes -- and we still have to watch what will happen on September 1, and possibly the days leading up to it, when Fox will give his national address. Those are the things to look out for right now, but I am getting the feeling this whole thing is cooling off a bit.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Can we expect much to come from Ahumada's accusations that the feds. made him help produce videos that were unflattering to candidate AMLO? I imagine this isn't proper according to law, but hopefully it won't turn the tables either...(assuming it's even true). Lord knows they did what they could to disgrace PAN candidate Santiago Creel too. Then when Felipe emerged as the victor in the PAN debates, we saw AMLO trash Felipe for his brother in law's business dealings in the only presidential debate in which ObraGore participated (followed by that in-law's suing AMLO, I think I read).

[Shuttle Shucker]

The video scandal's reverberating in Leftist elements of the U.S. press:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4127685.html

[StJacques]

Unless and until someone can come forward to show that either the PRD officials did not take the money and spend it -- and it has already been proven that they did -- or that something different was requested in return for the money than the tapes show, which was favoritism in securing contracts, then all of Lopez Obrador's protestations about the scandal are just so much noise.

I suppose it doesn't make Fox's administration look too good to show that individuals acted privately in this manner in the political interests of their party when they were supposed to be serving all Mexicans while on the job; but they received no financial gain from it, they didn't falsify any of the recordings, and they do have a defensible argument if it comes down to it that they were aware of corruption in and around AMLO and they didn't know any other way to get it out in the open since an official "sting" would likely have been leaked before it was attempted, thus preventing its success.

Frankly; I think the whole affair shows that Fox and his people have the balls to play the game "down and dirty" when push comes to shove. I rather admire them for it and I suspect there are more than a few Mexicans who feel the same way I do.

And remember, there is nothing in any of this that pertains to the counting of votes. That is all that matters right now.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Thanks for that helpful analysis, which suggests that ObraGore WON'T be able to discredit the entire electoral proceedings after understandably failing to secure a nationwide vote-by-vote recount.

BTW, I didn't see further news on the march to the Basilica. His baloon's hot air is rapidly leaving...

[Shuttle Shucker]

A whopping 1,500 (fifteen hundred) prepares to storm the Zocalo today:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/369919.html

The (habitually sensationalizing media's) report vaguely mentions an additional "march" emerging from elsewhere, with understandably few details. This is quite a change from the nearly million ObraGore used to be able to count on. Perhaps union coffer$ are depleting and leaders are resuming their allegiance with the more moderate PRI.

[Shuttle Shucker]

#27 was intended for you :-0 :-)

[StJacques]

Well I've got a brief update for you all on the progress of the Mexican post-election controversy which essentially is that, "nothing of note has happened over the past couple of days."

For those of you who may want to read about the continuing splits within Lopez Obrador's PRD over the campaign of civil disobedience, and especially the threatened intention of rejecting the eventual decision of the Electoral Tribunal, go up in this thread and begin with my post #14 to Shuttle Shucker from a couple of days ago and continue through our various exchanges to read about the public statements of former PRD presidential candidate and party founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas that the party should be prepared to accept what the tribunal delivers.

There has been a sideshow going on over the past couple of days regarding the disclosure that a major public scandal surrounding Lopez Obrador of 2003 - 2004, the so-called "videoscandals" in which key AMLO aides were videotaped accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes and later shown gambling in Las Vegas, were in fact orchestrated as a "sting" operation by key members of the Fox administration and the PAN party. Nothing that has been revealed even suggests that the videos were forged however, no; AMLO's aides genuinely took the money in return for the promise of favoritism in awarding contracts, but AMLO and company are raising the roof about how this "proves the conspiracy" to keep AMLO out of the president's chair. It's just a sideshow.

They have just concluded voting in the southernmost state of Chiapas today, in which the Governor's seat was up for grabs, with the two main candidates being the representatives of the PRD and the PRI party, with the PRI candidate being endorsed by the PAN and New Alliance parties. And guess what? Both candidates are claiming victory right now. LOL!

Expect to hear news on the presidential election from the Electoral Tribunal some time over the next couple of days. I'll let you all know what goes down.

[GeronL]

wow. Thanks for the updates

[rovenstinez]

Here is an election return site that is up and running. Chiapas Governors race http://www.prep-chiapas.com.mx/current/gobernador/

[StJacques]

I have noticed that as time has worn on, the lead of the PRD candidate, Sabines, has built up slowly. My guess is that the early votes recorded are from major cities and the later ones are from the countryside, where I would expect the PRD to be stronger.

I think the PRD may win this one.

[Shuttle Shucker]

In the nearby state of Oaxaca, supposedly the PAN is stronger in RURAL regions while the PRD is stronger in the city. It's analogous to rural Pennsylvania (Republican) vs. the inner cities where Jesse Jackson's politics prevail. This comes from a native indigenous Oaxacan friend from a rural region.

If only the 27 thousand who voted for the PAN gubernatorial candidate had voted for the PRI like the PAN requested...

[Texan5]

Thanks for the update-it looks as if the whining has spread to Chiapas.

[StJacques]

Your friend may be right that the rural vote in Chiapas leans away from the PRD.

When I turned in late last night there was a 17,000+ vote lead for the PRD candidate with about 83+ percent of all casillas counted. Now I see that there 2,386 vote margin in favor of the PRD with about 94.1% of the casillas counted. That means that the PRD lost about 14,000 votes of its lead over the last 10% of the casillas reported. If that trend were to continue the PRI win the last 6% of casillas by about 5,800 votes and would win the election. Add on to that the fact that one of the major media companies in Mexico released the results of their exit poll conducted throughout Chiapas yesterday and they said the PRI won by 2 points.

This is really close.

[Shuttle Shucker]

More encouragingly still is the fact that the PRD gubernatorial candidate in Chiapas has publicly (and hopefully sincerely?) distanced himself from ObraGore's "civil disobedience" antics:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/370120.html

At least in rural Oaxaca, the folks would prefer to keep their money rather than pay their taxes to central planners who don't do much if anything for the rural regions. It reminds me of the red counties / blue counties electoral map in the USA. Save for some major metropolitan areas, the entire USA tends to be RED :-)

[Shuttle Shucker]

The Mexican Supreme Court has told ObraGore to go pound sand, and let TRIFE decide:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/370130.html

In the USA, that was enough to get the other Gore to finally back down.

[StJacques]

Based upon what I've been reading today of election violations; PAN, PRI, PVEM, and Nueva Alianza are all going to challenge the Chiapas election before the TEPJF -- they are not going to trust the Chiapas court -- claiming very widespread fraud and they may have some basis for doing so, given what I have been reading.

It appears that the local IEE (the state agency in Chiapas handling the counting of votes) has suspended the preliminary count due to recognizable problems in numerous casillas. There have been some with as much as 400 votes for the PRD candidate Sabines with 0 for the PRI candidate. There is a group of casillas which, when taken together in sum, amount to over 12,000 votes for the PRD candidate and 400 for the PRI candidate. It's pretty clear evidence of fraud.

Based on the close results, it's been frozen at 94.33% of all casillas counted with a 2,405 vote lead for the PRD candidate for a little over an hour now, I think we may be looking at an election that will be annulled.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I wonder what kind of impact this could have on the national presidential elections' outcome, if any...

[StJacques]

Well; we're talking about PRD fraud just 6 weeks after the presidential election. That does shift the popular consciousness on the issue somewhat. But I actually doubt that it will have any real impact on the Electoral Tribunal, who I have come to view as quite professional.

It certainly doesn't help the PRD though, of that I'm sure.