AMLO Update: Tactical shift emerges from PRD camp

Mexico News ( The Herald Mexico ) ^ | Auugust 17, 2006 | Kelly Arthur Garrett

[StJacques]

I'm not going to be doing any translating today since my boss, GeronL, has given me the day off. :-)

I've looked over the Mexican web sites today and I do not see anything of pressing significance however. Fox is speaking in a very conciliatory manner about the action this past Monday to clear the legislative grounds at the national congress, he is calling for dialogue, and doing his best to reassure everyone that the country is not heading for violent confrontation. At the same time he has ordered armored vehicles to the legislative grounds, all of the streets approaching the grounds have been sectioned off with metal barricades, and he has over 800 Federal Preventive Police on-site, rotating out on a regular basis.

On the recount; no word from the Electoral Tribunal, though there is an article up on El Universal in which a Mexican legal expert says we can expect to see things start happening "possibly in the first days of the week."

And I linked this article because it gives a pretty good overview of everything, though it seems to suggest a much calmer appraisal of things than the tone I see expressed in the Spanish articles on the same site, and especially when prominent political actors are quoted. This article seems to suggest this entire "National Democratic Convention" is going to be a "monitoring" effort on the part of AMLO and the PRD. That is not the tone taken in the discussion revealed in the Spanish language web sites in Mexico, nor is it what I read in AMLO's own words. So, consider yourselves warned, I see some "MSM Spin" in this particular article, it's a Miami Herald subsidiary, so keep that in mind.

[StJacques]

A Mex-Elex ping for you all.

[GeronL]

Sort of like a Shadow Government but more ominous. Thanks for the update just before I go offline.

[GeronL]

Makes me hope the PRI can knock them down a few pegs in popular support by stealing the supporters who think AMLO is nuts

[StJacques]

"Sort of like a Shadow Government but more ominous. . . ."

GeronL, that is exactly the way I look at it. AMLO will have the makings of an "institution" he will claim is the legitimate government of Mexico. It's much more dangerous that the article suggests.

  

[rovenstinez]

Today 125 Mayors took the oath of office in the State of Mexico from the 3 major political parties without any incident. It was civic, exhibited tolerance, and outsiders would tip their hats to the ease and honor that was evident. At our swearing in ceremony mention was made about 'candidates' who don't accept the electoral results of an honest election. Elections to watch in Chiapas Sunday.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Notice how PRD founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas isn't exactly doing much to help ObraGore? Hmmm...

[Shuttle Shucker]

Meanwhile, the GOP is understandably cracking down on Mexico's years of underachievement by saying "no mas" (especially in light of how Mexico's immigration laws are so racist against us gringos: http://www.directory.com.mx/immigration ). It's admirable how the House GOPers are dealing with the lashings as resiliently as they are:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/4124661.html

Excerpt: "The Republican committee members, who sat in the majority Thursday, were greeted by a vocally hostile audience of about 200 onlookers. Sensenbrenner warned the audience several times that they were not to audibly respond to any comments or testimony. Outside the hearing, which was not open for public comment, about 100 protesters chanted and waived signs telling Sensenbrenner he was not welcome. Some protesters, carrying caricatures of Sensenbrenner as a member of the Ku Klux Klan, decried him as a racist. After the hearing, Sensenbrenner defended H.R. 4437, his controversial House immigration bill passed last year, and countered accusations he was being racist. "When you can't argue the merits, you call names," he said. "I authored the voting rights extension bill ... signed by President Bush. Racists don't do that." Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee, a Houston Democrat and the ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on Immigration, called the series of Republican-led hearings a "traveling road show."

[StJacques]

"Notice how PRD founder Cuauhtemoc Cardenas isn't exactly doing much to help ObraGore? Hmmm..."

Do you remember that editorial by Ezra Shabot I translated a couple of weeks back, "Madness"? He pointed out how AMLO had pushed Cardenas and his supporters aside:

". . . All of Andres Manuel's management at the head of the Federal District was guided by the logic of his presidential candidacy. The criticism of Fox, the construction of the Segundo Piso of the outlying freeway together with a good dose of corruption on the part of the builders, his defense in the face of the video scandals, the support for art dealers converted into beneficiaries of the capitol budget, and the scorn for the law in his personal immunity from prosecution case, each and every one of these events had in AMLO's mind one single objective: the Presidency of the Republic. Little by little, he was moving on the spaces within his party, converting the subject of the videoscandals into an instrument fit to ruin his Cardenista opponents, especially Rosario Robles. . . ."

And there is also the attitude of Cuauhtemoc Cardenas's son Lazaro Cardenas Batel, who is Governor of Michoacan, and who has been openly critical of AMLO's scorn for those Mexican institutions, such as the IFE and the Tribunal, empowered to handle the electoral process.

Some prognosticators are arguing that Cardenas Batel wants to be the PRD candidate six years from now. I wouldn't be surprised to see him step forth in a week or two to tell AMLO to sit down.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint:
Regarding:

>>>Some prognosticators are arguing that Cardenas Batel wants to be the PRD candidate six years from now. I wouldn't be surprised to see him step forth in a week or two to tell AMLO to sit down.<<<

Wow! No wonder ObraGore isn't fit to wait another 6 years. By then he'll be a distant memory and he'll be less able to cash in on corruption-related favors "earned" while governor of Mexico City.

[SAJ]

Nicely said, Shucker...and spot effing on, too. Like you're reading ObraGore's mind (...cue spooky music...).

;^)

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi SAJ: Glad to see you're still out & about. Is it safe to say ObraGore's a flatliner in betting circles now?

[SAJ]

Oh, yah. However, the contract will be settled when it's settled. Haven't looked, but I assume 6 September is the settlement date, insofar as it's the statutory date (if I'm not mistaken -- always a possibility) by which the Mexican election governors must declare a new President.

Exited my long Pesos position way too early; left upwards of $1100 per contract on the table. Still, a good solid winner though. (mutters at self...)

[StJacques]

Well Shuttle Shucker, how prescient you were to ask why we haven't heard from Cuauhtemoc Cardenas recently.

Because he has now spoken up:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/369483.html

Excerpt from article entitled "I'm fond of turning to the law to resolve electoral conflict":

"Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, considered the moral leader of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), said that the conflict which the country is experiencing after the presidential election has to be resolved "with strict fondness for the law and fundamental thinking in the interest of the country." He said this applies to all Mexicans to contribute so that the country develops itself in a climate of fruitful togetherness.

"I hope that we may have an electoral result, when the tribunal states its final decision, which is accepted, which gives us the certainty of taking what the election gave. I hope that if there is a recourse to some means, such as the counting of votes, that we turn to it if it is what gives us certainty," he said."

And then there is this quote a little later on:

"What affects the interests of those not directly participating in these activities worries me because of this, in some form it prejudices or deteriorates the current presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution in many sectors of society." He declared that he will not participate in the Democratic National Convention -- summoned by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- to be carried out next September 16 in the Plaza of the Constitution."

I think Cuauhtemoc Cardenas just said that AMLO is destroying a lot of the progress the PRD has made in "many secotrs" of Mexican society and he [Cardenas] is not going to be a part of it.

I guess this was worth waiting for after all.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Well Saint, how insightful of YOU to have pointed out how the PRD already has someone who can carry its banner in the upcoming presidential elections: Lazaro Cardenas Batel.

Still, I've been wondering just what this Cuauhtemoc Cardenas quote means to say:

>>>I hope that if there is a recourse to some means, such as the counting of votes, that we turn to it if it is what gives us certainty," he said."<<<

Is he leaning towards advocating a nationwide recount? Or is he more or less simply saying that whatever TRIFE says regarding the recounts should be embraced by Mexicans? I hope it's the latter.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Reforma.com has this front page photo online now, depicting what's hopefully NOT an isolated example of an abandoned protest tent on Reforma (now that the thugs formerly occupying it realize that they're far less likely to get favors from an eventual President ObraGore in exchange for their actions):

[Shuttle Shucker]

Still more re-tallying and such to do (r/e the state of Colima, at least):

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/369618.html

[StJacques]

"Is he [Cuauhtemoc Cardenas] leaning towards advocating a nationwide recount? Or is he more or less simply saying that whatever TRIFE says regarding the recounts should be embraced by Mexicans?"

I think the key phrase within Cuauhtemoc Cardenas's statement is "if it it is what gives us certainty." I take this to mean very clearly that there are recounts which do give us certainty and recounts which do not give us certainty. According to the Electoral Tribunal's interpretation of Mexico's Electoral Law, a hand recount of ballots is only required whenever the external evidence warrants it. By external evidence they refer to such things as: the comparison between the numbers of voters who signed the roll as casting ballots on election day with the number of votes recorded (is there a significant discrepancy between the two numbers, especially if the number of votes recorded is greater than the number signing the roll?); the possibility that the returns show unusual numbers of "null votes" (whether too high or too low); the existence of complaints made by the party representatives on hand who witnessed the counting of ballots and who only signed the voting report, i.e. the Acta, under protest; the existence of a discrepancy in the reporting of the numbers between the preliminary and official counts; visible recognition of damage to or a lack of clarity in the voting report; a correlation between lower vote totals for a particular candidate within an electoral district and the absence of party representatives for that candidate being on hand to act as witnesses to the counting of the ballots; and the possibility that approved precinct representatives designated to serve at a particular precinct before the election were prevented from doing so for reasons other than of their own inability or choice to serve. I have seen all of these reasons stated as sufficient to justify a hand recount within a precinct, and I imagine there must be others, but what I think Cuauhtemoc Cardenas is pointing out is that, if AMLO and his representatives could not present evidence of this kind for more than 9.07% of the casillas in the country, do they really have a case to make that going any farther clears up uncertainties? After all, Cardenas did distinguish between recounts that do give certainty and recounts which don't AND he said that a "fondness for the law" should be the way to settle the dispute.

I'm just acting on the basis of logic in interpreting his statements because what I really think is going on here is a "soft sell" from Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in front of the public, which accounts for some of the ambiguities you are pointing out, coupled with a "hard sell" behind the scenes, in discussions with PRD activists. And on that point, Cardenas was very clear. He sees the PRD as potentially losing real gains they have made.

So for what it's worth, that is my take.

[StJacques]

A followup to my previous post.

First; there is an article up on the La Crónica de Hoy web site that gives a much more complete recounting of the Cuauhtemoc Cardenas interview.

In the article, Cardenas specifically prefaces his statement about "activities which in some form prejudice or deteriorate the current presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution in many sectors of society" with his allusion to the Head of Government of the Federal District (Encinas) as "heading" these activities. So he pointedly criticizes Encinas.

And then there is the following exchange in the interview:

Q: Do you believe the actions of Lopez Obrador are putting the stability of Mexico in danger?

A: I believe that the country and the Mexican people are very mature and there is nothing which puts at risk either the stability or governability of the nation.

Q: Are you making any call to the For the Good of All coalition?

A: No. It corresponds with everyone so that we give our effort, our contribution so that the country develops itself in a climate of fruitful coexistence so that we can rise above the problems which the diverse sectors of Mexican society are confronting today.

Later on in the interview Cardenas points out that Lopez Obrador has called his "convention" for a national holiday -- Independence Day -- and deals with the fact that the Mexican armed forces normally get to participate in this celebration, and I'm guessing he means they usually get to participate in the Zocalo capital plaza where AMLO plans to hold his convention.:

In spite of the warnings of the candidate of the For the Good of All coalition of maintaining the blockade in the Zocalo capital plaza, the Paseo de la Reforma, Juarez and Madero Avenues, Cardenas Solorzano was confident that Mexicans "are going to have the national ceremonies they usually have and that the Armed Forces are going to participate in them."

I knew this was a national holiday and that Lopez Obrador was probably trying to "pad his numbers" by scheduling his "convention" for a day when so many would be off work and coming to the capital, but it never occurred to me that he might be disrupting an honored tradition to which the Mexican armed forces look forward to every year. That could be a big mistake. And you will notice that right after the text of the Cardenas interview on the web page there is a short didaction of an article in which AMLO "says he respects the Army." That's not a coincidence I think. And then of course, there is a final snippet in which AMLO once again loses his sanity and says that the effort to defraud him of his election victory is a conspiracy "bigger than Watergate." LOL!

[Shuttle Shucker]

Hi Saint. I hope your weekend's being good to you. Anyhow, it would seem that Cuauhtemoc's hard sell behind the scenes, trying to get PRD folks to back down, is having an impact. There's a whopping 3 digit sum marching to the Basilica de Guadalupe in Mexico City right now:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/369794.html

To put this crowd of 700 into perspective, Mexico has at least 4 or 5 times that many people straddle in to visit the Teotihuacan pyramid dozens of miles North of there on any given publicly accessible day, even though it's not symbolic of a widely accepted religion like the Basilica is.