Lopez Obrador is Moving Leftist Protestors to HQ of Mexico's Electoral Tribunal (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 6, 2006 | eluniversal.com.mx ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

Okay, this is the biggest piece of news coming out of the PRD demonstration in downtown Mexico City today. AMLO and company are now going to try to apply direct pressure to the Electoral Tribunal. This could bode for a showdown because yesterday President Vicente Fox ordered in Mexican Army, Navy, and federal police units to protect the Tribunal -- among other sites -- against their possible seizure by Lopez Obrador and his followers. So that means that tomorrow the protesters will be confronting men with guns. See this post in yesterday's thread for the particulars on that deployment.

There is other news coming out of the demonstration today. AMLO and company are intending to "personally mark" Vicente Fox for what they consider his responsibility for the post-election controversy. I personally view this as "cover" for the fact that the Mexican public is not likely to view the PRD's intimidation of the Electoral Tribunal very favorably. This is coming out as "it's Fox's fault." We can sympathize with Fox on that. And the radicals who have been carrying out the extended protest in Oaxaca, going back to their May 22 protest against the PRI Governor of that state, have decided to join in Lopez Obrador's call for a complete recount of the vote. This is significant because it represents an attempt to put the weight of the Mexican teacher's union, the SNTE ( Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación), behind Lopez Obrador, which is almost certainly going to create a rift in the organization. One of the more prominent leaders of the SNTE, Elba Esther Gordillo, who backed the protests in Oaxaca at their inception, has recognized Felipe Calderon as the winner of the presidential election and has since joined the New Alliance Party (Nueva Alianza), after the PRI party purged her from their ranks following their disastrous showing in the recent July 2 election. Others in the SNTE are still very closely tied to the PRI and there are others who are very supportive of Nueva Alianza and even the PAN party. So we may be witnessing the disintegration of one of the largest and most powerful unions in Mexico as the PRD attempts to co-opt it in support of Lopez Obrador's election challenge. This could be very big news, but we'll have to watch what happens over the next couple of weeks.

[StJacques]

A Mex-Elex ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to track the other translations on the Mexican post-election controversy can do so by using the forum's "keyword search" option with the unique keyword -- STJTRANSLATION

[sinkspur]

Is there any indication that the numbers attending these "informative assemblies" are dwindling?

It would seem that people with jobs and responsibilities have to go home at some point and go on with life.

Only the rabble can carry on Obrador's little crusade.

[StJacques]

There was clearly a decline in the demonstration last week from the numbers who attended the second one, two weeks earlier. The second demonstration evidently brought togeether around 1.2 million people, even though the PRD predicted they would have over 2 million. But last Sunday the Mexican press openly rejected the PRD's claims that over a million attended and set the number at just under or approaching 800,000. The PRD got very angry about that reporting and were very critical of the press early last week.

I haven't seen any official numbers for today's demonstrations but I have no doubt whatsoever they will be significantly less than last week. Lopez Obrador and the PRD depend upon people in Mexico City and the surrounding State of Mexico to show up for these protest meetings and these people have been complaining openly about the shutdown of central Mexico City by AMLO and his followers this week, and numerous defections from his organization have become very public, so I must assume that attendance is dwindling. But I'll put some numbers up for you when and if I find them.

[SAJ]

Early word from CME/IMM: Obragore isn't impressing the traders at all (at least so far), front-month Peso is up 1.75 ticks on GLOBEX tonight.

[StJacques]

I think you wanted a Mexican electoral map.

Go to:

http://www.electionresources.org/mx/mapas/diputados.php?election=2006

It's a dynamic map, otherwise I'd put the image up here.

[rovenstinez]

I talked to some City Employees of MEXICO CITY. Everyone who is a MUNICIPAL employee is expected to be in the demonstrations. All of the trash collector for example, instead of getting trash, are supposed to follow their leaders, whine in front of the Election Commission. Those NOT employed by the Governor of Mexico City, known as GDF, are getting very irate, tempers are flaring inspite of the deluge of water, hail etc. Obviously AMLO is seeking a showdown. Stand by for NEWS. Everyone is accepting that there never was fraud, this is a FRONT to try to steal the elections with a MOB.

[StJacques]

SAJ;

Just for my general information -- not to be in any way confused with a prediction, which I am not making in this request, how do you bet on the peso to go down? I understand "buying low and selling high" -- betting on it to go up -- but what if I were to see it going in the other direction?

Again; this is just a "for my information" inquiry. I'm not predicting the peso to go down, in fact, I'm very certain it will go up long term.

[StJacques]

Your description of things as they are in Mexico City is pretty much what I am deducing from numerous news items I have read over the past few weeks.

rovenstinez, would you like to hear MY biggest question about what is going on in Mexico City? It is this; what are the taxi cab drivers saying? That's what I want to know. My experience of Mexico City -- I spent about 3 1/2 months in the city itself -- is that the taxi drivers are the first to know anything.

[rovenstinez]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5251252.stm British News backs it all up. Questions reporters HAD BETTER be making: HOW many times has Lopez Obrador visited the USA? How many trips to Cuba...? Probably the only one that would ask that question is Ann Coulter. Taxi drivers actually are the lst ones to report, and they are very ANGRY. They wish something would be done to move the riff/raff off the streets so they could make money helping people who want to go to work. Most of those impeding traffic are paid city employees, with members of the PRD political party from the provinces. If the TEPJG would call a re-vote, I think that the popular vote has shifted to Felipe Calderon, as they see AMLO using mob tactics that has brought fear into people what might happen if there actually wasa a melt down.

[StJacques]

Thank you rovenstinez, the link was very helpful and so were your comments. I appreciate that.

[SAJ]

No problem, Saint. People's trading minds have been all screwed up by America's fascination with stocks, and particularly by the -- frankly -- weird rules that govern stock trading.

In futures, there are no 'shares'. Traders enter into mutually enforceable contracts with each other, guaranteed by the exchange(s) and other parties. So, to 'bet' on the Peso (or indeed any currency that has a futures mkt) to go down, one simply calls one's broker and says, 'Sell 1 Sep (September) Mexican Peso at 9.18 OB'. The broker xmits the order to the exchange by one or another means, and there it sits until some other trader comes in and bids at least 9.18 for a September Peso.

This is usually called a 'short sale', in that you or I or whoever does not typically own any Pesos at the time we make the sale. You are familiar with the physical analogue of a short sale: n a store sells you a couch that you want, but can't deliver it for 3 weeks. Same deal in the couch mkt and the Peso mkt -- both we and the couch dealer either deliver the goods, ultimately, or buy back the sale.

This is exactly what we do: guarantee either to deliver Pesos to the other party on demand (after a specific date) or to repurchase our short sale. The difference in the couch market will of course be that the dealer, in the case of a buyback, will suffer endless recrimination and some amount of bad publicity (g!). The buyback option occurs in well over 98% of all trades in futures mkts.

When our order is filled, we will profit if the Peso moves lower in terms of USD, and lose if it moves higher. If, for example, Sep Peso would move down to 9.07, we might take our profit by repurchasing our short with an order like 'Buy 1 Sep Peso, 9.1050 (pronounced nine-ten-fifty) OB (or better)'. Presumably, the next bid at 9.10 or 9.1025 or 9.1050 will take us out of the mkt (however, we might well not be first in line, so it might take several such bids). At 9.1050, the bookkeeping looks like this: sold at 9.18, bought at 9.1050, gross profit 7.5 ticks x $50/tick, or $350, less whatever commission the brokerage charges us.

CME's GLOBEX is an all-electronic platform with a very good order-matching procedure (called an 'engine', for some obscure reason). Generally, bids and offers, aka 'buys' and 'sells' are matched according to time of entry and price. The algorithm is pretty simple, but was difficult to do in large quantity without sufficiently fast computers and -- more importantly, fast software. The computers became fast before the software did (historical reasons, fairly complex).

More information on the topic if you want it. I hope this has been useful to you.

[SAJ]

Couple of typos in the 2nd-last graf.

For 9.07, please read 9.10.

7.5 x $50 is clearly $375, not $350.

Sorry about that (mutters at fingers...)

[StJacques]

Okay, on the "more information," side, I do have more to ask.

First of all; I am quite familiar with commodities futures trading, such as is done on the Chicago Board of Trade. I have even prepared internet applications that fall under the heading of "analysis tools" for it. But on the CBT, you have to purchase your futures contracts up front; say, a futures contract for 1,000 bushels of September Wheat and the "contract" or "contracts" you are purchasing was/were already negotiated with one or more farmer(s) somewhere, as they raised funds for themselves earlier in the year as a hedge against using their credit. But in one way or another once you purchase the futures contract you either get the 1,000 bushels of Wheat in September or you sell your contract to someone and, eventually, someone will actually get the Wheat.

Are you telling me that all I have to do is to put up a "bid" for purchasing pesos in September -- or at some specific date -- and wait to see if my bid is taken? That seems to be what I take from reading your post.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Union members get paid to do this sort of thing, even if under-the-table. Fortunately, some unions are still loyal to the PRI and the PRI has been getting along with the PAN more than usual since the power-hungry Roberto Madrazo left the helm. Madrazo wanted Mexico to collapse under Fox's rule so that he could be elected president "to end the gridlock against the PRI". Jerk.

[StJacques]

"Madrazo wanted Mexico to collapse under Fox's rule so that he could be elected president "to end the gridlock against the PRI". Jerk."

The only man who is more to blame than Madrazo for the present crisis in Mexico is AMLO himself.   ¡Huevón!

[Shuttle Shucker]

GREAT map resource. Thanks!

[Shuttle Shucker]

A friend is an attorney with the Mexico City government, and she told me yesterday that Felipe will still win even if there's a major recount and that ObraGore's not as popular as some fear. I vaguely recall that attorneys can't be unionized in Mexico but I could be mistaken.

[Shuttle Shucker]

That BBC article says merely "tens of thousands" showed up to the Zocalo recently. Not "hundreds" but "tens". Hmmm...

[rovenstinez]

Obviously each side of the issue tries to give numbers that would convince readers that there is high/low interest. Ten's of thousands sounds better than hundreds of thousands. The PRDleaders make great efforts to appear that they are IN THE TRENCHES, but all the while they are staying in plush hotels, and just come down to the squatter camps for photo opps. Sunday afternoon they had a human chain that ran a long distance, photos give the appearance that the chain was long but numbers of people short.