The 2006 Midterms: Moving Towards Democrats

Real Clear Politics ^ | August 04, 2006 | Larry Sabato and David Wasserman

[Sam Spade]

Yep, that's the same person.

[AuH2ORepublican]

We'll see if Kincaid and Bolanos can get enough additional turnout or maybe take enough votes away from Bonilla to keep him under 50%. If they're willing to spend money and fight for votes knowing that they won't be in the run-off themselves, they just might be able to keep him under 50%. But my money is still on Bonilla winning it outright in November unless Frank Madla or someone similarly prominent joins Ciro in the race (or if a Republican with decent resources and name ID jumps in).

As for 2006 having "the worst GOP ratings since 1974," I seriously doubt that will be the case nationwide, and it certainly won't be the case in Texas, where the Dem gubernatorial nominee may not reach 25% of the vote. What top-of-the-ticket race will prompt Hispanic Democrats in the 23rd to come out and vote?

[AntiGuv]

Which election can you think of since 1974 when the GOP had worse ratings than this year? The only ones I can think of to come close is 1982. The 1986 ratings sucked too but they didn't suck as bad as this year.

As for the election, it doesn't take much to throw a race with a relatively small partisan lean into a run-off if you have enough ballot lines. You don't even need a turn-out operation for votes to gravitate to random non-entities. In 1996 total nonentities were taking 2% to 4% of the vote in many of the November specials. There were not more run-offs simply because there was only one serious candidate for most of the seats, and they were all in more heavily partisan districts.

[Torie]

Have you factored in the San Antonio area Anglo factor, with respect to both relative turnout, and with respect to what the partisan change might be this year with that cohort? How about Hispanic partisan change in this area? I would submit that the partisan change will be lower in this area than in most areas of the country. If it isn't, that means to me it truly is tsunami time.

[AntiGuv]

To be clear, I mean that in 1996 nonentities were individually taking 2% to 4% of the vote in many of the reconfigured districts. The combined nonentity vote was higher. Here are the combined percentages taken by candidates with individually less than 10% of the total vote in districts with at least one candidate from each major party. The parenthetical is the number of nonentities.

TX-03: 2.58% (1)
TX-05: N/A
TX-06: N/A
TX-07: 3.53% (2)
TX-08: 6.03% (1)
TX-09: 9.42% (1)
TX-18: 12.79% (3)
TX-24: 5.17% (2)
TX-25: 18.94% (7)
TX-26: N/A
TX-29: 1.46% (1)
TX-30: 27.11% (6)

The big question mark right now is whether there will be another Republican on the ballot. Even an otherwise unknown (R) will siphon at least one to two percent fron Bonilla, and probably more, not for any good reason, but simply because that's how it always works.

[MaineVoter2002]

Republicans are becoming divided on Iraq. Not so much whether we should be there but many are unhappy with our passive PC way of fighting it. Ofcourse this would NEVER cause the 'unhappy' republicans to vote for a democrat but it could cause them to not be excited enough to drive to the polls and vote.

[AntiGuv]

I haven't micro-analyzed the election because I do not think it will be a normal election, since it is not. It's special open 'jungle' primary. For Nov 7, it doesn't matter whether Bonilla can get the most votes; it only matters whether he can get the first vote beyond 50%.

So, in answer to your question, you don't need much partisan change for Bonilla to end up below 50%, assuming Ciro Rodriguez spends at least on par with the $846,808 that he spent in this year's TX-28 primary election, and assuming multiple minor candidates to siphon off voters that would ordinarily default to the major contenders.

If the partisan change in the Anglo vote amounts to a couple percent reduction in Bonilla's total vote I think that might very well be enough insofar as the question of whether Bonilla can get that one vote beyond 50%.

[Torie]

OK. Where is this seat in your rankings as to who will serve in Congress in 2007?

[AntiGuv]

I've provisionally rated it at #28:

Lean Republican

23 (VA-02) Drake
24 (NY-20) Sweeney
25 (AZ-05) Hayworth
26 (PA-10) Sherwood
27 (OH-01) Chabot
28 (TX-23) Bonilla
29 (CO-04) Musgrave
30 (FL-13) Harris*
31 (NY-25) Walsh
32 (WY-AL) Cubin
33 (NJ-07) Ferguson
34 (CA-11) Pombo
35 (CT-05) Johnson
36 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
37 (NV-03) Porter
38 (OH-18) Ney*

These are my current Lean GOP rated seats. Note that OH-18 at #38 is also a provisional rating.

[Torie]

I would put it in the Ney catagory myself. But, I have my little assumptions. They might be wrong.

[AntiGuv]

Well, I have a really big assumption myself, to be sure, which is that I'm rating it as if I am rating a December run-off between Bonilla and Rodriguez.

[AntiGuv]

PS. But, in actuality, I'm just waiting for the filing deadline before I seriously evaluate how I think the November special will turn out.

[Torie]

It will be quite an election if control of the House turns on the seat in a December election, wouldn't it? If the seat doesn't matter, then the turnout models become a a major factor.

[AntiGuv]

It would be epic, for sure.

[Sam Spade]

Fwiw, I tend to agree with Torie more on the placement of the race on the whole. And this includes a possible runoff. I saw that Rodriguez had nearly a million dollars this year to spend and actually garnered less votes than he did in the 2004 primary.

But as usual in these types of contests, anything can happen (and often will). And I'll certainly wait till the filing period is over before passing any other judgments.

[AuH2ORepublican]

SUSA just came out with a poll for KY-04 showing Geoff Davis beating Ken Lucas by 2%: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=8b69eeea-7816-461b-ae98-882e95b92cf8

I thought Lucas would be up until October or so and that it would end up being a 4% Davis win, but this one may end up being a more comfortable victory for the Republican in a district that President Bush carried by 27% in 2004 and that Jim Bunning carried handily despite his slim 2% statewide win.

[AntiGuv]

Yep, I dropped the KY-04 seat into Toss Up when I saw that poll yesterday.

[texas1311]

I work for Kyle Kincaid's campaign. Unlike most wanna be candidates, in addition to Texas law enforcement officer experience, he is a prominent Texas attorney that does much Pro Bono community work and is a honor graduate of The University of Texas School of Law as well. Moreover, unlike even many current members of congress, In 2005,Mr. Kincaid was a contract instructor for the U.S. Dept of Justice in Baghdad, Iraq, training Iraqi police trainees where is PERSONALLY observed first hand the Republican quagmire mess in Iraq rather than simply watching Fox News.
Kyle also in a USAF veteran and received his training at the USAF 'Officers Training School' (OTS) at Lackland AFB in San Antonio.

[texas1311]

Bottom Line: Ciro Rodriquez needs to realize that he has lost three or four elections and stop beating a "dead horse to death."
Hispanics do not necessarily trust, like, or even support other hispanics. For example, 80% of Kyle Kincaid's clients in his criminal defense and civil rights law practice are hispanic. Also, don't forget, there are thousands of Anglo voters in San Antonio. Lastly, members of congress are LAW MAKERS which is best suited for lawyers not necessarily coaches, school teachers, stock brokers, Viet Nam veterans, etc.

[texas1311]

From "Kincaid for Congress" supporter. Apparently, some people are uninformed about Kyle Kincaid.
Hopefully the following with assist people and voters:
1. Kincaid is a fourth generation native Texan.
2. As a Texas youth in scouting, he earned the Eagle Scout and God & Country Awards.
3. Kincaid worked his way through Sam Houston State University as a Huntsville city Police Officer, where he received his undergraduate B.S. Degree in Criminal Justice.
4. Later, he worked his way through The Univ. of Texas School of Law earning his J.D. Law Degree.
5. USAF veteran and received training at Officer Training School at Lackland AFB, in San Antonio during the 1970s.
6. Currently Kincaid is a criminal defense, civil rights, and personal injury attorney assisting people with problems ranging from dead spouses and babies to people facing life in prison. His professional life has been devoted to helping other people.
7. He is age 54 and has been married to Sandy Kincaid for over 30 years, and they have three children and one six year old grandson.

Contrary to many other candidates, Kincaid's motive for congress is to continue making other peoples' lives better, and NOT the attitude of thinking it is his "gold watch" right in life ----like many of other candidates.

Regards. VOTE FOR KINCAID