Expert: H5N1 Worst Flu Virus He's Ever Seen

Fox News ^ | 5-4-2006

[Lurker]

A.) I never said vaccines, I said drugs.

B.) HHS is stockpiling enough anti-virals to treat about 25% of the population. Current stocks are around 26 million treatments with plans to purchase enough for 80 million or so. Yes, my job is 'important' enough that I and my family will receive it. Sucks to be you, eh?

C.) If everyone is home either out of fear or illness they'll no longer be spreading or catching the virus. And in my jurisdiction it's not 'some' agencies it's 'every' agency that has a COOP plan. That's basic disaster planning. If your community doesn't have one either your professionals or your politicians need to be fired.

D.) There's never only one 'mitigating' factor in any disaster. Good medical care when ill will be a major factor, but equally as important will be staying home if you're sick, washing your hands frequently, using a fricking Kleenex when you cough or sneeze, and getting plenty of rest and fluids. Also 1918 is not a good model as we've made a centuries worth of progress in medical care. People in 1918 didn't even know that virii existed. They didn't even know what was killing them.

Like I said. There are prudent precautions one can take. They're basically the same as being prepared for any large scale disaster. Have at least 3 days worth of supplies on hand. Buy a box of surgical masks if that makes you feel better. But for Gods sake don't run around saying "We're DOOOMED!" because we aren't.

L

[tertiary01]

LDS's routinely are stocked up for emergency preparedness in general. It's always good to know who is a LDS in one's neighborhood.

[Gabz]

But for Gods sake don't run around saying "We're DOOOMED!" because we aren't.

You obviously don't live in a poultry dependent area.

Economically, where I live if this thing hits, even if it doesn't mutate to a human pandemic, the region will be in financial ruin for quite some time.

[blam]

"Also 1918 is not a good model as we've made a centuries worth of progress in medical care. "

The medical establishment in this country will collapse if we have a pandemic and everyone will be on their own. You're being silly if you think otherwise. They're already worried that half the nurses and doctors won't even show-up for duty. You won't even be able to get basic medical care for broken bones, heart problems, etc. Antibiotics for pneumonia may be the first thing that runs out. The JIT thing will cause a disaster just by itself.

[tertiary01]

On the RFD channel I have seen a half dozen times the film clip of chicken industry types meeting recently with a congressional sub committee and being told they will be ordered to kill their flocks if this strain of bird flu is found in the US.

[blam]

Those of you that are watching the Bird Flu presentation by Newt Gingrich should have just gotton a tip, buy a gun if you don't have one.

[ordinaryguy]

If everyone is home either out of fear or illness they'll no longer be spreading or catching the virus.

Except that they'll start leaving their homes to search for food an health care.

Also 1918 is not a good model as we've made a centuries worth of progress in medical care.

So, the hospitals in your area have a plan for successfully treating H5N1? I'd be interested in hearing the details. It sounds as though you folks know how to cure the ARDS often associated with this disease. If not, then it is not clear how the century worth of advances in medical care will help. Anyway, I doubt they would even have simple antibiotics in their stocks shortly after a pandemic got underway.

People in 1918 didn't even know that virii existed.

The era of modern virology had already begun by the time the 1918 flu rolled around - though it was still in its infancy. Please see Frederick William Twort's 1915 discovery of a virus and Felix d'Hérelle's 1917 work as well. In 1910, Peyton Rous showed that viruses could cause cancer. He won the Nobel Prize for that work. It is also important to remember that Louis Pasteur had vaccinated against the rabies virus twenty years before the 1918 pandemic.

[Gabz]

Killing the flock is SOP when an infected bird is found, as is quarantining the farm. Interstate shipments of poultry are also halted.

Government types could probably learn more from the bird industry types than the other way around when it comes to preparedness for an outbreak.

[tertiary01]

It just makes me hurt every time I see that clip because I don't think many stop to realize that chicken and eggs are a very large part of the American diet. This will severely impact our food supply.

[blam]

"My nearest neighbors are 170,000 broiler/fryer chickens...."

Please let me know if your neighbors start dying.

[Gabz]

This will severely impact our food supply.

As well as the economy.

[Gabz]

Please let me know if your neighbors start dying.

They're moving out tomorrow night..........the place will be empty for about 10 days or so until the new neighbors move in.

All kidding aside, I will be among the first to know if they start dying. The manager of the 3 farms (total 17 houses @ 34,000 birds per) is a good friend.

[MPJackal]

OK, wiseguy. First you said:

"I'm engaged in a lot of the prep work for an outbreak down at the local government level."

Now you say:

"Yes, my job is 'important' enough that I and my family will receive it. Sucks to be you, eh?"

So now I really do say you're full of it. Very few Government employee's family members are included as Mission Essential or Emergency Essential.

Next issue. CDC says that even if every American were vaccinated with the antiviral the infection rate would drop from 33% of the population to 28%. Comforting.

And your next comment:

"There's never only one 'mitigating' factor in any disaster. Good medical care when ill will be a major factor, but equally as important will be staying home if you're sick, washing your hands frequently, using a fricking Kleenex when you cough or sneeze, and getting plenty of rest and fluids."

Where did I say only? However, the fact is that IF it becomes a human to human virus, people will get it. They will spread it because most have an "It well never happen to me attitude. Millions of people MUST use mass transit to get around, which makes trains, buses, planes, taxis, and subways germ factories. They have NO Plan for that. So people WILL get sick. Once they DO, medical care is the ONLY hope they have. And the medical community is not ready. If you do what you say you would KNOW that.

Finally, you said;

"Have at least 3 days worth of supplies on hand. Buy a box of surgical masks if that makes you feel better. But for Gods sake don't run around saying "We're DOOOMED!" because we aren't."

I never said we're doomed. In fact I said I don't know if the virus will mutate, no one knows. But if it does happen. You had better have more than 3 days worth.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***Webster also called for more vaccine to be stockpiled, calling current efforts "miserable." ***

If the current bird flu has not mutated into a people killer how do we know that the current type of flu vaccine will stop it?

[ordinaryguy]

CDC says that even if every American were vaccinated...

Also, many people don't understand that the influenza vaccine takes time to kick in. One could get a seasonal flu shot, then be exposed to someone infected with the flu, and become infected themselves. It takes a couple of weeks for the vaccination to provide full protection.

And on top of that, the H5N1 vaccines currently require more than one vaccination, so expect to receive a booster shot a few weeks after the first dosage.

Of course, all of this might occur six months too late, as it is difficult to produce an effective vaccine before the target strain exists.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***in the end no one that I remember died from the (swine) flu.***

I remember that more people died standing in line for the shot than from the swine flu. Only one persopn caught the swine flu and he had more reporters mobbing him for interviews than yoy could shake a stick at. He didn't die.

[processing please hold]

I remember the Hong Kong flu, I was a teenager.

[steve86]

It takes a couple of weeks for the vaccination to provide full protection.

Of course, the seasonal vaccination does not really provide full (i.e. total) protection, but after two or three weeks, it's as good as it's going to get. I've changed over to FluMist myself, where your body at least has to deal with a real infection, albeit a weak one, instead of dead virus particles.

[LucyT]

preparations for a cat-5 hurricane. (Which I go through every year)

A few years ago I had to evacuate for a hurricane; it was so stressful I vowed to never do it again.

[blam]

"If the current bird flu has not mutated into a people killer how do we know that the current type of flu vaccine will stop it?"

We have absolutely nothing that can treat the H5N1 virus at the present time. There are some anti-virals (Tamiflu/Relenza) that seem to have some effect once you have the flu. They will not even begin working on a vaccine until the H2H virus is known (no-one knows when that will be) and then the first off the production lines are months away from that point. There will never be enough vaccine for you and I when we need it, period.

You're on you own. Prepare now not to get it, that's the best plan for survival.