Jay Cost: Busby Finishes Under 50% in CA 50 (Bad News For Democrats)

RealClearPolitics ^ | April 12, 2006 | Jay Cost

[So Cal Rocket]

Well... if we don't get the turnout in the runoff, the Donks could still win this seat. Unfortunately, there are plenty of GOP's with the attitude that "my guy didn't win the GOP nomination, so I'll stay home"... a low turnout could hand the seat to Busby and the Donks

[MarcusTulliusCicero]

Even though technically a loss for the Democrats, it's hardly confidence-inspiring for Republicans that, in a district that has 70% Republican/30% Democrat registration, the Dem managed to pull 43.92%. On the other hand, last time she ran against DeLay, she only managed to pull in about 34%, so even with all the bad DeLay publicity and massive get out the vote effort, she only improved 9%.

[okie01]

For all our disappointment with the Republican legislators, we have to remember one thing in their favor:

They Aren't Democrats!

That may be the only reason to continue voting GOP...but it's a powerful reason.

[zbigreddogz]

No, no no. The district isn't 70-30 Republican. There are a lot of I's too.

Kerry got 43.2% of the vote, Busby got 43.9%.

So, when the D's have a fractured R base, an R incumbent in leg irons, and the national wind at their back, they can improve their standing by .7% of the vote.

If that's all they can do, I don't think we have much to worry about.

[conservative blonde]

So who won on the Republican side?

[Grebrook]

Not enough for me anymore.

[okie01]

You would prefer to increase taxes, abandon the WOT, appoint liberal judges and impeach the President, then?

Because that is what you'll get with a Democratic Congress and Administration.

Your call.

[zbigreddogz]

Former Congressman Brian P. Bilbray, who served from 1994-2000 in a different district before losing narrowly.

It's kind of a shame. His ACU was only 71, and while I don't mind someone moving into a district to run, when you run and win in one district, and then lose, I'm not a big fan of moving to another district to win. While I can understand circumstances where it is OK, it just seems power hungry. He's also been a lobbyist ever since 2000, which the media will have a field day with.

I'm not a fan of Howard Kaloogian, I think he's not much more then a red-meat thrower, but it does seem to me that either State Sen. Bill Morrow or Businessman Eric Roach would have been a better option.

Anyhow, he'll win easily though. The D's don't have a prayer.

[Strzelec]

I don't know about easily. The Republicans can still lose this one if they don't watch out.

The 50th is not nearly as conservative as it was 10 years ago when I moved here. Lots of expensive housing has gone up; lots of folks with more money than brains. District is approximately 20% Hispanic now.

Busby has done a better-than-expected job of portraying herself as a moderate (yes, I know - tough for a woman's studies prof, but doable). You should see her campaign mailings - would make a RINO proud. Really has downplayed her anti-gun anti-war retoric. She is rumored to be making some inroads with fiscally conservative/socially liberal Republican women.

Then, you have the Republicans. You're right - Bilbray can, and will be, painted as a outsider and a lobbyist. Add to that a contested Republican primary for the November election on the same day (speculation has it that Roach, who lost very narrowly, may enter), you have a very interesting situation brewing. Busby will keep her voters in line - what if the conservatives stay home, or go against Bilbray to go with Roach in November? It could be ugly, folks - and Busby could get bragging rights until at least the November election. Stay tuned!

[LS]

Pay very close attention to this guy. He had the 2004 elections dead on. He was the main reason, when all you chicken littles were running around after the exit polls came out, screaming, "The sky is falling," I kept telling you that based on his numbers and the kinds of "poll flushing" I was doing in Ohio, we had already won Ohio.

Now, I've been telling everyone here for months that we would gain seats in the House, and net at least one in the Senate. If Santorum continues his comeback, I think we could net two in the Senate---MN and NJ.

[zbigreddogz]

I just don't see it. While I would have perfered someone else, the fact that Bilbray is more moderate will help with some swing voters, and the fact that he's experienced in campaigns should make up for the fact that he can be painted as an insider lobbyist. The base would REALLY have to stay home in big numbes for him to lose.

I have a good friend who's got a lot of contacts to a bunch of big D's around all of California, and he's told me that the folks he knew thought they had to win before the runoff. I think they are right.

[heleny]

Add to that a contested Republican primary for the November election on the same day (speculation has it that Roach, who lost very narrowly, may enter),

What do you mean, "may enter?" Qualifying a candidate for the June ballot ended in March, a few weeks ago. Eric Roach, along with eleven more of the fourteen Republican candidates in the special election yesterday, are all running in the Primary. For a list of candidate names, see OFFICIAL Certified List of Candidates (PDF) (dated March 30, 2006).

Also, candidates may not withdraw their names from the ballot once they have qualified, so the other eleven Republicans are not allowed to drop out officially, even if they wanted to.

what if the conservatives stay home, or go against Bilbray to go with Roach in November? It could be ugly, folks - and Busby could get bragging rights until at least the November election.

Yes, GOP voters (an "decline to state" voters who request a GOP ballot) could always pick Roach in the June Primary, but I seriously doubt they would at the same time vote for Busby in the runoff, because she shares fewer values with Roach supporters than Bilbray does. Those voters would probably support Bilbray in the runoff as a seatwarmer, because he is better than Busby on several issues.

The electorate will be slightly different, because yesterday's special election was open to all voters to vote for one candidate regardless of party. Also, perhaps voters for other candidates (like Morrow, Turner, etc.) could coalesce behind Roach, because they were all splitting the conservative vote.

[heleny]

they had to win before the runoff. I think they are right.

Yes, Busby had only one chance to win outright: yesterday, with the GOP vote fractured among 14 candidates. She failed.
She will be trounced in both the runoff and in November (assuming she gets the nomination in June), whether by Bilbray or Roach or each of them.

[Strzelec]

Your're probably right. I had other preferences, too, but Busby would be a disaster. I just hope Bilbray doesn't become too complacent. The folks I know aren't really happy with anyone in politics right now.

[Strzelec]

Mea culpa - forgot about the deadline. Must be getting election fatigue - after the 2000 election I find I can only handle one at a time. [Grin}

[heleny]

Don't worry, even the AP writer got it wrong, as featured in another thread. She wrote: "Roach spokesman Stan Devereux ... didn't rule out the possibility that Roach might attempt a write-in campaign in the June runoff if he finishes behind Bilbray."

[Seadog Bytes]

Did you see this?

[Amerigomag]

If I understand your explanation correctly there will be two elections on June 6 involving the 50th Congressional District.

1) A Special General Election to fill the balance of Cunningham's current term. This ballot will contain the names of the top vote getters in each party based on the results of yesterday's Special Primary Election.

2) A partisan primary election in preparation for November's general election.

Is this correct?

[Owen]

You did good work in Ohio during the campaign.

If you are correct about GOP gains in Congress this year, the DNC will literally collapse. It is utterly conceivable that it would fracture into multiple parties. The upheaval would be astounding.