Posted on 03/23/2006 2:59:12 PM PST by blam
Between Dec. 26, 2003 and Oct. 24, 2005, there were 121 confirmed H5N1 infections and, of those, 62 have reportedly died. That makes the “apparent” death rate just over 51 percent, ranking this infection among the most deadly on record.
However, thousands of mild and asymptomatic cases are going undetected as detailed by Dick Thompson, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization (WHO). In an interview granted to CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) News on March 9, 2005, Thompson said that the case-fatality rate had been overstated. Documented cases were those where the patients were sick enough to seek medical care in a hospital and, predictably, they had very poor outcomes. He concluded, “Surely others were infected and either not getting sick or not getting sick enough to seek treatment at a hospital. Factoring those into the CFR [case-fatality rate] has been impossible. We simply don't know the denominator.”[2]
To illustrate, if 62 people died, but 10,000 had actually been infected, the death rate would be 0.62 percent, essentially insignificant. Therefore, without knowing how many are infected, the death rate is being highly inflated
2. The virus has barely infected humans; significantly, there has been no sustained person-to-person transmission of the infection.
Very few cases of severe human infection by H5N1 have occurred. An intensified surveillance of patients in Southeast Asia has led to the discovery of mild cases, more infections in older adults, and an increased number of “clusters cases” among family members, suggesting that “the local virus strains may be adapting to humans.” In other words, humans are developing their own innate resistance to the virus.[3]
In addition, all cases have occurred via animal-to-human transmission, and there is documentation of only one confirmed case of human-to-human transmission. Without sustained transmission between humans — meaning one person spreads it to another and another, and so on — there can be no pandemic. The “hype” that, sooner or later, the H5N1 strain will mutate into a strain that can be easily passed between humans is completely unsubstantiated. Whether this will happen is nothing more than a guess because:
3. We have had “potential pandemics” before.
In February 2003, Thompson of the WHO revealed that “there have been a half dozen pandemic ‘false alarms’ in the last 30 years.” A false alarm is an outbreak where a virus has jumped the species barrier, but has been confined to one or two people and has not been lethal...."[4]
{snip}
Remember the check-in-no-check-out 1000 bed, TV in every room 'hospital' they put up in 15 days in China for SARS?
Two months ago I asked the Pharmacist at our local CVS (South Jersey ) if he ahd a stock of Tamiflu and he said he had quite on hand .
Do you have anything you could post on the SARS situation?
"The mortality rate so far for this virus is around 55 percent, so this virus would have to attenuate a lot to get down to that level. And we do have good data. There are not a lot of mild, asymptomatic infections out there [with H5N1]. We're now aware of six studies involving over 5,000 close contacts of H5N1-infected people, in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Hong Kong, in which less than one person per thousand contacts had evidence of an H5N1 infection that was missed—that is, a mild infection."
"This [virus] is not causing a lot of asymptomatic infections right now. Some people are saying there's a lot of mild [H5N1-related] illness all over out there, but it's just not true. That means we're not artificially inflating the mortality rate by missing a lot of infections. I'm actually pretty confident that the real mortality is almost that high."
Sorry, but I don't buy it this pandemic fear mongering. They are just like the global warming experts. This is a typical power grab, pure and simple.
Btw, do you still worry about getting SARS?
Okay.
unless of course, you and your family go to the doctor because you're all "running fever and feel like I've got the flu" and get an rx for everyone..... go home and put it away for the real thing.
Sad to even have to think about being dishonest, but....
You were actually interesting until this.
My doctor usually checks to see if it's viral or bacterial, if it's bacterial he'll give me antibiotics.
Just ask him if you can get a prescription for some and explain the reason.
My great grandmother and two of her girls (my great aunts) died in 1918 of Spanish flu. You're right: that was no media creation.
My mother was born in 1917 and my dad in 1918 (bless their souls). They didn't know much about the 1918 flu. They were into the Great Depression when they were old enough to be interested in such things. They were scarred by the Great Depression though.
1. There was a shortage of vaccines for two of my three babies (between 2001-2003). The supply eventually caught up. Two years ago there was a big flu scare, and kids around here would get the first dose and couldn't get the 2nd. (Kids get 2 small doses). So yes, I believe this scientist when he says we have a PROBLEM with vaccine production in the U.S.
2. My strong and healthy 19-year-old great-aunt died in 1918 of the influenza. Kind of hits close to home.
Yup. This story I keep hearing about the cities running out of food in 72 hours if the delivery trucks are stopped for any reason is worrysome.
I've heard a lot of Katrina 'stories' but, this is the first I've heard of the shortage of cold-storage trucks. We seem to be very 'thin' in many areas.
Interesting article ping
What are you worried about? You can go hole up in an ice cave on the mountain. :)
don't you just love the folks who espouse the "we've been lucky in the past, and that means we will always be lucky" mantra?
stockpile food.
stockpile water.
stockpile ammunition.
you should do that anyway, in case of more mundane emergencies.
nightmare scenario:
1. H5N1 infects the pigeon population of NYC
2. Through droppings and other contamination, H5N1 spreads into the RAT population (as it can into cats)
3. from there --> humans
Lots of possibilities, huh?
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