Posted on 03/13/2006 10:10:32 AM PST by blam
But I have to hand it to them in the latest 'scare'. At least they're not telling people to wrap themselves in a room covered in plastic sealed with duct tape cutting off their air supply. Although I do wonder how many of the 'faithful' went out and bought that crap
Think I will load up on the Sambucol. It is the cure for the common cold and the bird flu.
http://www.israel21c.com/bin/en.jsp?enDispWho=Articles^l1209&enPage=BlankPage&enDisplay=view&enDispWhat=object&enVersion=0&enZone=Health&
You can find it at just about any health food store.
Read the below link before you get to carried away.
It has stopped my a cold and the flu I recently had within a couple of hours. Works great!
Blam, go to www.avianflutalk.com. I can't set up a link for some reason..:(
.
I'm on webtv, and am html challenged as well..not a good combo.
Anyway, it's a hot forum wrt discussing the Avian flu. Thank you :)
There Are "About Even Odds" That Virus Could Mutate to Easily Transmitted Form, He Tells 'World News Tonight'
By JIM AVILA and MEREDITH RAMSEY
March 14, 2006 — - Dr. Robert Webster is one of the few bird flu experts confident enough to answer the key question: Will the avian flu switch from a terrible hazard to birds to become a real threat to humans?
There are "about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human," he told ABC's "World News Tonight." Webster, the Rosemary Thomas Chair at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., is credited with being the first scientist to find the link between human flu and bird flu.
Webster and his team of sceintists are working to find a way to beat the virus if it morphs. He has even been dubbed the "Flu Hunter."
Right now, H5N1 is strictly a bird flu. It can be transmitted from bird to human, but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of birds.
But viruses mutate, and the big fear among the world's scientists is that the bird virus will join the human flu virus, change its genetic code and emerge as a new and deadly flu that can spread airborne from human to human.
"I personally believe it will happen and make personal preparations," Webster said.
Frightening Warning
He has even stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home to prepare for an outbreak.
"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."
Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans -- even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.
Researcher Dr. Anne Moscon, of New York Weill Cornell Medical Center, said that a human form may not mutate this year or next -- or ever -- but it would be foolish to ignore the dire consequences if it did.
"If bird flu becomes not bird flu but mutates into a form that can be transmitted between humans, we could then have a spread like wildfire across the globe," Moscona said.
No one knows how long or how many mutation changes it would take for bird flu to become a direct threat to humans.
"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus," Moscona said.
But that hasn't stopped Moscona from searching for new types of anti- viral treatments that both prevent and slow the spread of bird flu.
"I don't think that once we have human-to-human transmission, it's going to be possible to contain it," she said.
That is why nearly every viral scientist in America, perhaps the world, is waiting and watching the avian flu virus to see if it remains just a threat to birds, or changes its genetic code and becomes just as deadly to humans.
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/AvianFlu/story?id=1724801
Is it 50-50? It could be undergoing countless mutations right now, none of which are the magic mutation that would make it the human transmitted one. Or one of the infinite number any of which would make it human transmissible. It could even mutate into something that once the human is infected does something beneficial.
He has even stored a three-month supply of food and water at his home to prepare for an outbreak."
"Is it 50-50? It could be undergoing countless mutations right now, none of which are the magic mutation that would make it the human transmitted one. Or one of the infinite number any of which would make it human transmissible. It could even mutate into something that once the human is infected does something beneficial."
Like they say about the terrorists, they only have to get it right one time.
"Right now, H5N1 is strictly a bird flu. It can be transmitted from bird to human, but only by direct contact with the droppings and excretions of birds."
IIRC, there have been limited H2H cases or cases of people who ate chicken - health care people in Vietnam, relatives of sick people, etc.
The three months of food and water is probably too low if they start quarantining off cities.
It's the people who rely on prescription meds I'm most concerned about. Most of them are only allowed a 30 day supply as it is. Dialysis patients are going to be in big trouble in lock down.
For those who think this is being blown out of proportion, just make a mental note of how scared our U.S. Poultry producers are. They're not ignorant.
sw
Thanks for the article, blam. 50-50 odds are good enough for me to take this seriously enough to be prepared. I hope it begins to dawn on others that being prepared is a wise move.
Great plan, to bad you'll have starved to death by the time you can grow something to eat.
Considering that this article quotes the scientist who found the link between bird flu and human flu that's making the statement, "I personally believe it will happen, and make personal preparations...", forgive me if I err on the side of caution and take his advice. I trust his credentials. Better to be prepared and not need it than to need it and be without.
go here www.superflutalk.com and you'll find hundreds of people doing just that.
Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/14097548.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp
How we should plan for bird flu
AREA HEALTH CHIEF PRESENTS UPDATE
By Barbara Feder Ostrov
Mercury News
Scientists say we're overdue for a worldwide flu pandemic. As Santa Clara County's public health officer, Dr. Martin Fenstersheib is responsible for making sure people are ready.
Fenstersheib will talk about preparations for a flu pandemic at tonight's meeting of the county Health Advisory Commission. The meeting is open to the public.
Q. We've been hearing a lot about flu lately. How do bird flu, pandemic flu and seasonal flu relate to each other?
A. Seasonal flu is the flu we see every year, with its peak in winter months. Bird flu is a strain that infects birds; this particular strain can make people sick only if they've been directly exposed to infected birds. What we're worried about is if a strain of bird flu changes itself into a brand new strain that allows it to jump from human to human. We'd have a new strain that will be pretty strong and no one would have immunity. It would spread quickly around the world. That's pandemic flu.
Q. How worried should we be?
A. With bird flu, it's more worrisome for people with chickens or domestic birds in their yards. But we haven't seen it here yet. With pandemic flu, it may not happen this year, or next year, but we cannot be complacent. We must plan for this.
Q. Do vaccines protect against these types of flu?
A. No. There is a vaccine for birds, but it's not widely used. With a new strain of pandemic flu, we will not have any immunity. It will take six to nine months to make a new vaccine once we know the pandemic strain.
Q. How might county residents be affected?
A. We know 25 to 35 percent of the population could be infected with pandemic flu, with an estimated 22,500 to 31,000 deaths over 12 to 24 months.
Q. What is the county doing to prepare?
A. We may have to limit large gatherings such as concerts. We may have to close schools and day care centers.
Isolation of sick people in their homes has a great role in every flu pandemic. Quarantine -- isolation of people who are sick, but do not yet display symptoms -- would be used in very limited situations. We're going to educate people to take care of family members in their own homes.
We're going to set up several centers that could provide minimal levels of care for people when there isn't room at hospitals. We'll be asking for more funding for ventilators and oxygen -- we have 400 to 500 ventilators in the county and we need twice that number. We have very minimal supplies of Tamiflu (a drug that can relieve severe flu symptoms) and would use it for treatment, rather than prevention.
Q. What can county residents do to prepare?
A. We want people to understand the common elements of infection control: covering your coughs, staying home when sick, not sending kids to school when they're sick, washing hands. We're recommending keeping a two-week supply of food, water and medications in the house, along with face masks, gloves and disinfectants.
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IF YOU'RE INTERESTED
Today's 7 p.m. presentation is at the Board of Supervisors Chambers, 70 W. Hedding St. in San Jose. For more informationvisit www.sccphd.orgor www.pandem icflu.gov/plan/
After the two-week supply of food is gone, then what? People don't like being without food.
There is no reason to worry!
See the Biological Incident Annex to the National Response Plan.
DHS will save all of us, just as thehy saved New Orleans. Just send them more money.
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