Posted on 02/15/2006 7:19:13 AM PST by areafiftyone
So in otherwords she's running against Maloney and the NY GOP wants her to run against Hillary. Like I said "Stuck on Stupid".
Well, I don't know what you've been reading. The GOP is not doing well in approval ratings. But it's still doing better than the Dems. And the generic Dem vs. Rep numbers I've seen are about the same as they always are - favoring the Dems by 5-9 points. When you factor in fundraising, blue state vs. red state seats being defended, a powerful fundraising tool in the POTUS, and the high winning percentage of incumbents, I can't realistically envision a scenario where the Dems regain either the House or the Senate. Or make significant inroads in governorships.
That's far removed from getting "massacred" across the board.
But what's the deal? She's got a shot against Maloney. But Spencer's got a better one gainst Clinton. Primary voters will just have to get out and vote so that the state party can't screw us over.
I agree with you that it is a very slight chance that the Dems retake control of either house this year. My point is, like I said in a previous post, if the Republicans do manage to stay even or by some chance pick up seats, it will not be because of their stellar performance, but rather the ineptitude of the Dems. I just don't like being in that position.
I disagree. The gubernatorial races, in particular, are shaping up much better than expected. We have a real shot -- truly unexpected -- in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois.
"That's far removed from getting "massacred" across the board"
I hope I am wrong, but I think we will lose a couple seats in the Senate, and more than a couple in the House. That is, unless we can score a big victory before November on one issue or another.
But let's take the Pennsylvania example. We may very will win the governor's seat, but we are going to lose a key senator's seat. I don't know about you, but I'd rather have the Senator.
The perfect candidate is Rep Peter King, but he represents a very safe Long Island district.
I don't know as much about the House races, but I do know the number of competitive races is pretty low. And the Dems ar getting hammered in fundraising for the House and in general. The one place where they are outperforming the GOP right now in fundraising is the Senate. I think they're putting all their eggs in one basket.
Yes, Santorum will likely lose, but it's gonna be a lot closer than people think. And Rick may still pull this out. Swann's candidacy will help Rick.
As to other Senate races, things are looking better. We will pick up Minnesota, have a good shot for pick-ups in MD and NJ and hold onto MO and OH.
At best I think the RATS are +2 in the Senate.
The real jeopardy in the Senate is not 2006, but rather 2008.
I agree completely with your analysis and, frankly, the only seat that we are likely to lose at this point is Santorum. We will hold TN, MT, OH, and MO.
I agree. Rick's hurting, but it's too early to pull the plug on him. Swannie will likely help him, as will some well connected friends (such as Dubya) raising serious bucks for him. One doesn't get to Santorum's level and then just roll over & play dead.
OH would be a rather hollow victory. [cue tears] :-) I am still worried about Burns in MT. Yes, I think the GOP will pull it out with Bryant in TN and Talent in MO.
People are unhappy with the GOP until they see what the alternative is
I don't consider DeWine a hollow victory. Imagine the difference between DeWine and Sherrod Brown with votes on judicial nominees.
RATS are upset that Rick is not dead and he has an enormous war chest; he's been preparing for this contest for years.
Also, even if Casey can defeat Santorum, it may cost them a fortune, thus draining DSCC and DNC resources from other races.
bump...
Imagine the similarities on votes to the UN!! :-)
Hillary is a lock for NY Senator. Not necessarily because the lib New Yorkers like her that much but because they know conservatives can't stand her. When it comes to a choice of having an effective Senator or ticking off conservatives, liberals will choose the latter every time.
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